The Whitney field is Deep and Talented

The East Coast drive to the Breeders’ Cup Classic begins in earnest with the $1,250,000, Grade 1 Whitney on Saturday at Saratoga. The “Win and You’re In” race which, will be run at a distance of a mile and an eighth, has seven grade one victors in the field including last year’s Whitney winner, Moreno.

Honor Code [3-1* ML, McGaughey, Castellano] was made the morning line favorite based on his ultra impressive win in the Met Mile (G1) on Belmont Stakes Day. In the Met Mile the planets aligned for the son of A.P. Indy with the one-turn mile distance, a super hot pace for him to run into, and overlay odds of 7.10-1. Honor Code will have to answer questions about whether he can handle the distance and the two turns. Also, the other day Honor Code refused to train on the Oklahoma track and had to be taken to the main track before he reluctantly got in his work. [Closer]

Tonalist [4-1 ML, Clement, J. Velazquez] has become a bit of a mystery horse with blinkers on, blinkers off, blinkers on, and then blinkers off again. His second place finishes in the Met Mile and the Suburban in the Met Mile and the Suburban were disappointing. I just get the feeling that Clement hasn’t gotten him figured out completely. Can he get a win in the Whitney? [Closer]

Noble Bird [5-1 ML, Casse, Bridgmohan] had a coming out party in his Stephen Foster (G1) victory at Churchill Downs. There he stayed close to an honest pace and beat at good field with Lea and Hoppertunity. He looks like a horse that is getting better as he recorded his career best 108 BSF. Odds of 5-1 would be most generous and that would be a fantastic price at which to bet. [Stalker]

Liam’s Map [6-1 ML, Pletcher, M. Smith] has won his last four races, but only one of them was a stakes race, the overnight Harlan’s Holiday at Gulfstream Park. This lightly races four-year-old is very fast and trying the nine furlongs for the first time. He gets a new rider in Mike Smith, as Castellano and Velazquez have both opted not to ride a Pletcher runner. [Frontrunner]

Moreno [12-1, Guillot, C. Velasquez] is back in New York, after two tries at Santa Anita, to defend his Whitney title. Last year he got away to an easy lead and wired the field; that will not be the case in 2015. Even trainer the very quotable Eric Gulliot admitted that the racing is much tougher on the east coast, "In California, there seems to be a lot of sheep and dreamers so they like to take 99- and 50-1s and go 45 [seconds] and change [for four furlongs] going a mile and a quarter. There seems to be a little better class of racing on the East Coast in my opinion." [Frontrunner]

V. E. Day [8-1 ML, Jerkens, Alvarado] has not won a race since the 2014 Travers (G1). He lost the mile and a half Suburban Handicap by a neck to Coach Inge after holding the lead in the stretch. He is going to have to come up with his best effort against this very tough bunch. [Closer]

Lea [9-2 ML, Mott, Rosario] fell short in the Stephen Foster and in his trip to Dubai for the World Cup. He has been a consistent performer who has the highest career BSF of 114 in his 2014 win in the Donn Handicap (G1). Lea has only been out of the money twice in his 16 race career. [Stalker]

Coach Inge [15-1 ML, Pletcher, I. Ortiz] won the Brooklyn Handicap, but he has also won his only start at the Whitney distance in a muddy Aqueduct allowance race. He will be a pretty big price as “the other Pletcher” in this race. [Frontrunner]

Wicked Strong [20-1 ML, Jerkens, L. Saez] has had a pretty tough go of things since he won the Jim Dandy in 2014. He went on the turf last time out and now returns to the Saratoga main track where he did quite well last year. He will need one of those top Saratoga efforts to win the Whitney. [Closer]

Normandy Invasion [30-1, Jones, Clark] has only two career wins and has yet to score in a stakes race. He burned a lot of money in his two most recent Delaware Park starts. He figures to be the longest price on the board in the Whitney. I have the upmost respect for trainer Larry Jones but his magic has not worked on this son of Tapit. [Closer]

Race Analysis and Betting Strategy

There is plenty of early pace in the Whitney coming from the Pletcher runners and Moreno to set things up for the stalkers and closers. I’m looking for a very close finish at the end of the nine furlongs. Noble Bird is my pick to win the Whitney. I’d love to see a price of 3-1 or higher on this Mark Casse runner to make a nice win bet. I definitely will play a one way $20 [3-2] exacta, that’s Noble Bird over Tonalist.