What Does it Take to Become Three-Year-Old Champion?
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With only one-third of the year left, the discussion about
which horse will become the champion three-year-old male has intensified. Since
the Triple Crown ended, horses have been taking turns in the East winning the
major stakes for this division. While out West, Shared Belief has continued to dominate his races, including the recent
Pacific Classic (G1) against older horses, while staying unbeaten. Of course in
the background, California Chrome has been training for his return to racing after his valiant try to take the
Triple Crown.
All of the conjecture about the Eclipse Award is great for
racing fans and the social and traditional media. At this point, I think it is
important to take a look at exactly what it takes to become the champion
three-year-old male.
In the chart below I have compiled information about the
past Eclipse winners in this division from 1984, when the Breeders' Cup Classic was first run, to the present. The chart
contains the winner’s record during his three-year-old campaign, his performance in
the Triple Crown, his record against older horses, and finally whether the
horse ran in the Breeders’ Cup.
At this point, without a horse dominating the races in the
east, the division crown clearly is between California Chrome and Shared
Belief. History is definitely on the side of this year’s Kentucky Derby and
Preakness winner. You will notice on the chart that every horse that has won
two of the Triple Crown races (highlighted in light green) has gone on to win
the Eclipse Award.
Shared Belief was not able to run in the Derby, Preakness, or Belmont Stakes because of problems with his feet. Since 1984, only one horse (noted in orange) won the championship after skipping the entire Triple Crown and that was Tiznow. Tiznow needed to win the Breeders’ Cup Classic in 2000 to do it. That year, Tiznow ran against older horses an amazing five times.
In the history of the Breeders’ Cup Classic, nine
three-year-olds have won the race. However, victory in the Classic does not
guarantee the Eclipse. Four times a Classic win was not enough. In 2008, Raven’s
Pass won the Classic, but Big Brown had taken two jewels of the Crown. The same
thing happened to Cat Thief in 1999 when Charismatic was the champ. 1994 was
the year of Concern and Holy Bull and in 1985 the Eclipse went to Kentucky
Derby winner Spend a Buck, and not to Proud Truth.
History says that the only chance that Shared Belief has to
win the three-year-old title is to win the Classic. At the same time, there is
the fact that California Chrome has the Derby and Preakness victories that have
always meant an Eclipse Award. Does that mean that the only way Shared Belief
can snatch the championship from California Chrome is to beat him head to head
in the Classic?
There are so many interesting questions to ponder before a Breeders’ Cup Classic that could produce unprecedented Eclipse Award results.
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