What Does it Take to Become Three-Year-Old Champion?

Photo: Alex Evers / Eclipse Sportswire

 
With only one-third of the year left, the discussion about which horse will become the champion three-year-old male has intensified. Since the Triple Crown ended, horses have been taking turns in the East winning the major stakes for this division. While out West, Shared Belief has continued to dominate his races, including the recent Pacific Classic (G1) against older horses, while staying unbeaten. Of course in the background, California Chrome has been training for his return to racing after his valiant try to take the Triple Crown.

All of the conjecture about the Eclipse Award is great for racing fans and the social and traditional media. At this point, I think it is important to take a look at exactly what it takes to become the champion three-year-old male.

In the chart below I have compiled information about the past Eclipse winners in this division from 1984, when the Breeders' Cup Classic was first run, to the present. The chart contains the winner’s record during his three-year-old campaign, his performance in the Triple Crown, his record against older horses, and finally whether the horse ran in the Breeders’ Cup.
 
At this point, without a horse dominating the races in the east, the division crown clearly is between California Chrome and Shared Belief. History is definitely on the side of this year’s Kentucky Derby and Preakness winner. You will notice on the chart that every horse that has won two of the Triple Crown races (highlighted in light green) has gone on to win the Eclipse Award.

Shared Belief was not able to run in the Derby, Preakness, or Belmont Stakes because of problems with his feet. Since 1984, only one horse (noted in orange) won the championship after skipping the entire Triple Crown and that was Tiznow. Tiznow needed to win the Breeders’ Cup Classic in 2000 to do it.  That year, Tiznow ran against older horses an amazing five times.

In the history of the Breeders’ Cup Classic, nine three-year-olds have won the race. However, victory in the Classic does not guarantee the Eclipse. Four times a Classic win was not enough. In 2008, Raven’s Pass won the Classic, but Big Brown had taken two jewels of the Crown. The same thing happened to Cat Thief in 1999 when Charismatic was the champ. 1994 was the year of Concern and Holy Bull and in 1985 the Eclipse went to Kentucky Derby winner Spend a Buck, and not to Proud Truth.

History says that the only chance that Shared Belief has to win the three-year-old title is to win the Classic. At the same time, there is the fact that California Chrome has the Derby and Preakness victories that have always meant an Eclipse Award. Does that mean that the only way Shared Belief can snatch the championship from California Chrome is to beat him head to head in the Classic?

There are so many interesting questions to ponder before a Breeders’ Cup Classic that could produce unprecedented Eclipse Award results. 

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