The Lecomte -- Next on the Kentucky Derby Trail

 

Week three on the Road to the 2015 Kentucky Derby features the $200,000 Lecomte Stakes (G3) at the Fair Grounds Race Course. To be run at a mile and 70 yards, the Lecomte offers up a total of 17 qualifying points to the top four finishers.

Recent winners of Louisiana’s yearly first Kentucky Derby prep race has had more impact on the Triple Crown events than many of the other early winter qualifiers. Last year, Vicar’s In Trouble went on to win the Louisiana Derby and the Ramsey Farm runner ended up with earnings well over $1,000,000. Vicar did however finish a disappointing 19^th in the Kentucky Derby. In 2013, Oxbow won the Lecomte and went on to be a significant player in the sophomore grade ones the rest of the way, finishing sixth in the Derby, winning the Preakness, and coming up second in the Belmont Stakes. Ron the Greek won in 2010 and he now has earnings approaching $3,000,000 as he is still racing in Saudi Arabia. In 2009, Friesan Fire swept all three of the Fair Grounds Derby prep races and then went on to finish 18^th on the first Saturday in May, as the favorite. Hard Spun won the 2007 Lecomte, and that launched him to a second in the Derby behind Street Sense, third in Curlin’s Preakness, and fourth in the Belmont Stakes.

A field of eleven was drawn for the 2015 Lecomte, which includes graded stakes winner International Star, who already has earned 11 Derby qualifying points. Eagle is the only other horse in the field with any points. He earned one for his third place finish in the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) in November at Churchill Downs.

Five of the horses are trying to take advantage of a home track advantage having already made a start and/or train at the Fair Grounds. The field is made up of one graded stakes winners, one open stakes winner, one restricted stakes winner, three have an allowance victory, and five others enter Saturday’s race with just a maiden tally.

One graded stakes winner:

#1 International Star (Fusaichi Pegasus) – trainer: Michael Maker – jockey: Miguel Mena – The Ramseys look to win back to back Lecomtes with their versatile colt who has run on grass, dirt, and synthetics. He broke his maiden on the grass at Belmont Park and won the Grey (G3) on the polytrack at Woodbine. His most recent dirt start was a fourth place behind Eagle in the Kentucky JC. Experience and class are on his side on Saturday.

One stakes winner:

#9 Dekabrist (Street Boss) – trainer: Gennardi Dorochenko – jockey: Sal Gonzalez, Jr. – Dekabrist is the most experienced horse in the field with nine starts. His two wins came in first two career races at Gulfstream Park including the Kodiak Island stake, which had a field of four.

One restricted stakes winner:

#3 Four Leaf Chief (Lookin At Lucky) – trainer: Steve Flint – jockey: Florent Geroux – He has won two Louisiana-bred stakes, one at Louisiana Downs and another at Delta Downs. Most recently he finished third in an OC allowance at Fair Grounds.

Three allowance level winners:

#4 War Story (Northern Afleet) – trainer: Tom Amoss – jockey: James Graham – Tom Amoss is currently winning at a 44% rate at Fair Grounds and the combination of Amoss and Graham is clicking 39% of the time. They were together for War Story’s Dec. 28^th victory in a mile OC 50/NW1 allowance. There they had a rough trip yet still won easily with a BSF of 83 that puts this unbeaten colt in contention.

#10 Another Lemon Drop (Lemon Drop Kid) – trainer: Philip Bauer – jockey Calvin Borel – This colt won his most recent OC allowance start that was originally carded for the FG turf. He drew off to a five-length score on a sloppy track.

#11 Eagle (Candy Ride) – trainer: Neil Howard – jockey: Brian Hernandez Jr. – Eagle has hit the board in all four of his starts. Most recently he finished a close third behind Derby points leader El Kabeir and the very promising Godolphin runner, Imperia, in the Kentucky Jockey Club. He has been training at the Fair Grounds since the track opened. Eagle has the highest BSF in the field with a 93 in his last race.

Five maiden winners:

#2 Tiznow R J (Tiznow) – trainer: Steve Asmussen – jockey Robbie Albarado – This colt took to the Fair Grounds surface when he broke his maiden by over 13 lengths in gate to wire fashion with a BSF of 89. In his prior two starts he finished third at Churchill Downs.

#5 Hero of Humor (Sharp Humor) – trainer: Gennardi Dorochenko – jockey: Alexander Reznikov – Hero of Humor has been at the back of the pack in two recent Florida overnight stakes. He was a supplemental nomination to the Lecomte.

#6 Savoy Stomp (Medaglia d’Oro) – trainer: Todd Pletcher – jockey: Mike Smith – This Pletcher trainer will get Lasix and Mike Smith for the first time. He broke his maiden at Belmont in September, but did not fare well in the tough Nashua (G2).

#7 Runhappy (Super Saver) – trainer: Laura Wohlers – jockey: Shaun Bridgmohan – Horse Racing Nation Editor Brian Zipse profiled Runhappy after his eventful maiden win at Turfway Park in which he won by more than eight-lengths. This one clearly has great potential and I look forward to seeing how he runs here.

#8 Killingit (Candy Ride) – trainer: Laura Wohlers – jockey: Jamie Theriot – This one has run on all surfaces, but he broke his maiden on the dirt at Churchill Downs in November after starting his career under the care of Chuck Simon. The Lecomte will be his fifth start at five different tracks with five different riders.

Suggested wager:

The Fair Grounds has very high takeout rates in all types of wagers, thus I am going to skip the multi-race bets and offer a 50¢ trifecta keying Eagle to finish first or second with International Star, Tiznow R J, Four Leaf Chief, War Story, Runhappy, and Another Lemon Drop.

11 with 1, 2, 3, 4, 7, 10 with 1, 2, 3, 4, 7, 10 = $15