The Jerome: Odds, analysis for 2018's first Kentucky Derby prep

UPDATE: Due to frigid temperatures, the New York Racing Association has cancelled Monday's card, effectively postponing the Jerome.

On New Year’s Day at New York’s Aqueduct Racetrack, the $150,000 Jerome kicks off the Kentucky Derby trail for 2018. Even though the race has lost its Grade 3 status, it still offers qualifying points (10-4-2-1) toward the Run for the Roses.

The forecast calls for frigid temperatures, but a field of eight entered, headed by the Grade 1 Champagne Stakes winner, Firenze Fire. The Champagne turned into a key race on the Road to Derby after the runner-up Good Magic won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) and the third-place finisher Enticed was victorious in the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) at Churchill Downs.

The Jerome is for 3-year-old males who all celebrate their official birthdays on race day, Jan. 1. Run this year as a one-turn mile on the newly renovated Aqueduct main track, the Jerome was carded as the seventh out of eight with a scheduled post time of 3:34 p.m. ET.

Here is a look at the field with morning line odds.

Honor Up [ML - 6-1 – To Honor and Serve – Mott/J. Alvarado – 5: 1-2-0 - $65,350] This New York-bred needed five tries to break his maiden in restricted company, but when he did it, he cruised to an 11 ¾-length victory while going this one-mile distance at Aqueduct less than a month ago. In all of his races he sat in a stalking position. Trying open company.

Diamond King [SCRATCHED, won at Laurel (ML - 7-2) Quality Road – Reid Jr./Pennington – 3: 2-0-0 - $67,800] Trainer Robert Reid has two in the Jerome with Diamond King also cross-entered at Laurel in the Heft Stakes and is expected to run there on Saturday. He was a nice winner of his first two starts at Parx in a maiden and an allowance. In the Kentucky Jockey Club he clipped heels and lost his rider early in the race. Top-three contender in this field but...Likely running at Laurel Saturday.

Regalian [ML – 15-1 – Fast Bullet – C. Englehart/L. Reyes – 3: 1-0-0 - $30,315] Regelian was bred by Zayat Stables, but was claimed from them for $50,000 in his second start. New trainer Chris Englehart got the maiden victory in his first try going a mile in a claimer at Aqueduct. Regalian drew clear by three lengths while being part of the early pace. It’s a big jump from the maiden claiming ranks to the Kentucky Derby Trail. Maiden claimer last race.

Old Time Revival [ML - 10-1 – Brethren – Decker/P. Lopez - 3: 1-0-1 - $28,400] This Florida-bred will be shipping up from Laurel, where he ran all three of his races. He beat a field of six to win a seven-furlong maiden special weight by 4 ¾ lengths in a very average time of 1:24 and change. He had some trouble out of the gate last time and the switch to Paco Lopez should help fix that problem. Stakes company will be a challenge for this one. A big class challenge.

Firenze Fire [ML – 1-1 - Poseidon’s Warrior – Jason Servis/I. Ortiz – 5: 3-0-0 - $449,100] This Florida-bred enters the Jerome as the only horse with a stakes victory of any kind. He has the most wins, the most money earned and 10 Kentucky Derby qualifying points. Firenze Fire got his Derby points with the aforementioned victory in the Champagne going a one-turn mile at Belmont in October. He disappointed in the BC Juvenile with a distant seventh-place finish, but trainer Jason Servis said that the colt did not ship well to California and was a bit under the weather when he arrived at Del Mar. Firenze Fire has been training smartly since he returned to his barn at Belmont Park. Servis is committed to the New York road to the Derby. Deserving favorite.

Smooth B [ML - 20-1 – Weigelia – Reid Jr./Rocco – 7: 2-1-0 - $91,720] This Reid runner has the most experience in the field, including three tries in stakes company. He raced at four different tracks with a maiden victory at Parx and an allowance score at Laurel going a mile. He ran against some quality horses in the Sapling and the Futurity at Belmont, finishing fifth in both of those stakes. His experience will be helpful against a lot of the field. Has stakes experience.

Seven Trumpets [ML – 4-1 – Morning Line – Romans/Albarado - 3: 2-0-0 - $74,400] Seven Trumpets comes from the barn of Dale Romans, which is loaded with talented youngsters. He sold as a yearling for $45,000 and then as a 2-year-old for $205,000 when purchased by West Point Thoroughbreds at Ocala in April. In the fall at Churchill Downs, he broke his maiden and followed that up with an allowance score both were at 6 ½ furlongs. Last year, Romans brought J Boys Echo to Aqueduct to win Derby points. He should be running at the end. Main threat to the favorite.

Millionaire Runner [ML 30-1 – Warrior’s Reward – Mejia/Occasion – 5: 1-1-0 - $25,800] Last time, Millionaire Runner tried to make the jump from a big maiden claiming victory to the Remsen (G2) and was soundly beaten after contending the early pace for six furlongs. I’d expect similar tactics and results in the Jerome. Big longshot.

SUMMARY – Firenze Fire towers over most of this field, and anything but a victory in the Jerome would probably be a disappointment for his connections. Seven Trumpets looms as the favorite’s main competition and if this colt makes another step up he could easily get a victory. These two could tangle down the long Aqueduct stretch while leaving the rest of the field far behind.