Shifman: An American will win the Saudi Cup, but which one?

The four top-ranked American horses in this week's NTRA Top Thoroughbred Poll are all expected to meet in Saturday's inaugural $20 million Saudi Cup.

The formidable quartet of Pegasus World Cup (G1) winner Mucho Gusto, Champion Three-Year-Old Male Maximum Security, Champion Older Female Midnight Bisou and four-time Grade 1 winner McKinzie took with them overseas a combined 14 Grade 1 victories and more than $11 million in earnings.

You can’t really argue with the statement that the best dirt racing in the world happens in the United States. Thus, it is hard to imagine a scenario in which one of them does not also win the richest race in the world considering it too runs over dirt.

RELATED: Saudi Cup post times, fields and how to watch

Let’s take a closer look at the American stars that are best suited for the race which is to be run around a one-turn mile and an eighth at King Abdulaziz Racecourse.

Mucho Gusto sits in the No. 1 spot in the poll based on the fact that he has already run in 2020. But he will not be my top choice in the Saudi Cup. He beat a relatively weak field in the Pegasus World Cup -- remember, Omaha Beach and Spun to Run both scratched -- when he won his first and only Grade 1 race compared to the loaded international field he will face.

No. 2 Maximum Security was the best dirt horse in America last year with a record that included four Grade 1s in which he crossed the finish line first. He won those races with the ideal combination of speed and stamina over a mile, a mile and an eighth and the classic distance of a mile and a quarter. While the Saudi Cup is a new sort of test, his laid-back personality around the barn makes him well suited to international travel.

Midnight Bisou, who received five first-place votes as the No. 3 horse in the consensus poll, is a fit for the Saudi Cup's one-turn configuration. Even though the Steve Asmussen runner found the winner’s circle in seven of her eight starts last year, it would take a remarkable performance to beat this field in her first try against males.

Then there is McKinzie with his stellar record. From 14 starts, only once did he not finish in the exacta. Trainer Bob Baffert has been aiming the 5-year-old for this $20 million event since the Breeders’ Cup. The one-turn configuration and the nine-furlong distance suit him perfectly.

I just cannot imagine a scenario where Maximum Security or McKinzie don’t win the Saudi Cup, and those two are very likely exacta to complete the exacta. I'll side with Maximum Security on top of that 1-2 finish.

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You can see from my NTRA Top Thoroughbred ballot below that Mucho Gusto got the No. 1 vote. He, simply, won the biggest race to date of 2020.

Clearly, the results of the Saudi Cup and then next month’s Dubai World Cup (G1) will newly determine the leaders.