Shifman: Met Mile sure to impact top Thoroughbred rankings

Because there was no significant change in this week’s NTRA Top Thoroughbred Poll, let’s look ahead to Saturday's Metropolitan Handicap (G1), which is certain to prompt some moves among rankings for the best horses in training regardless of which horse wins.

The Older Male division has been lacking in leadership all year long following the retirements of City of Light and Accelerate. Since then, the supposed front-runners have both been defeated.

Vino Rosso beat Gift Box in the Gold Cup at Santa Anita (G1) on Memorial Day, and earlier in the year Gift Box topped McKinzie in the Santa Anita Handicap (G1).

The Met Mile, an annual collision between two-turn routers cutting back and sprinters pushing their distance limitations, is expected to include three members of this week’s Top 10: McKinzie (2), Mitole (3), and Thunder Snow (9).

Once again, the focus will be on the Bob Baffert trainee McKinzie. Favoritism is pretty much guaranteed when Baffert is the trainer and Mike Smith is in the saddle. Outside of the Breeders’ Cup Classic, McKinzie faces the toughest field of his career which to this point is an impressive 10: 6-3-0.

McKinzie is one of those horses who will be cutting back in distance and returning to a one-turn scenario. Eight of his 10 career starts were around two turns with the other two being seven-furlong sprints. In December, the son of Street Sense crushed a field of 14 in Santa Anita's Malibu (G1), which was restricted to 3-year-olds. In his career debut as a 2-year-old, he won easily while racing one-turn at Santa Anita.

As a bettor, I feel that McKinzie is going to be an underlay in an especially strong Met Mile. And as a voter in the NTRA Top Thoroughbred Poll, a McKinzie loss would open the door for a new top older male.

Should Mitole win the race, he will be well-supported by voters with that a third graded win of 2019. But sprinters don’t win the Horse of the Year title. A victory by Thunder Snow, however, would cement him at the top of the division and perhaps the poll with that horse already a winner of the Dubai World Cup (G1) receiving votes without a U.S. showing yet.

However, don’t count out the possibility of an even bigger upset in a Met Mile that also includes Firenze Fire, Coal Front and Pavel.