Shifman: How to bet Kentucky Derby Future Wager Pool 3

Tiz the Law, who currently sits in fifth position in the 2020 Kentucky Derby points standings with 22, was named the 8-1 favorite amongst the individual betting interests in Pool 3 of the Derby Future Wager. That's after the Sackatoga Stable closed as the 11-1 betting favorite in Pool 1 and the 8-1 second choice in Pool 2.

Ten of the original 23 horses remain as single choices from Pool 1, while four others carry over from Pool 2.

As part of Pool 3 this year, there are 9 new betting interests, which include Bob Baffert’s latest maiden star Charlatan and recent Derby prep winners Ete Indien, Modernist, Silver Prospector and Sole Volante.

Since the qualifying points system was instituted for 2013's race, four horses that were new to the Futures Wager in Pool 3 went on to win the Run for the Roses. That includes each of the last three years.

In that same time period, the Pool 3 exacta included the #24 interest for “All Other 3-Year-Olds” three times in second place. With Orb, the futures exacta paid $207. The following year, it was an exacta with California Chrome and the field that returned $828.80. The exotic combination of Always Dreaming and #24 produced an $835 payout.

With that in mind, let’s keep it simple with the Pool 3 wagers as betting runs from Friday through Sunday considering two obvious ways to play.

• Bet a new Pool 3 horse to win the Kentucky Derby

As detailed above, four out of the last seven years -- that’s a 57% clip -- a horse new to Pool 3 has won on the first Saturday in May. Here are all nine of the options this year with their morning line odds

#4 Charlatan (12-1)

#6 Ete Indien (10-1)

#10 Major Fed (50-1)

#13 Modernist (20-1)

#15 Royal Act (30-1)

#16 Silver Prospector (20-1)

#17 Sole Volante (12-1)

#18 Spa City (50-1)

#23 Wells Bayou (30-1).

My choices from that group are Charlatan, Sole Volante and Wells Bayou. I really liked Wells Bayou’s second-place performance in the Southwest Stakes (G3) at Oaklawn Park. The Brad Cox runner has tons of room for improvement and the pedigree to handle the Derby's distance.

• Use #24, “All Others,” to round out your exacta

Once again using the field in the exacta produced big payouts three out of the last seven years in Pool 3. In this wager, you can use any horse from Pool 3.

There are four Baffert horses that you can use as he goes for his sixth win the Derby. Right now, my top choices are: #22 Tiz the Law, the Bafferts, and #23 Wells Bayou.

• Wait to wager until Saturday

Remember that while Future Wager Pool 3 betting opens at noon ET Friday, it's worth waiting until closer to the 6 p.m. ET Sunday end of betting to place your tickets. That, of course, is after the dust settles from Saturday's trio of Derby preps including the San Felipe Stakes (G2), Tampa Bay Derby (G2) and Gotham Stakes (G3).