Shagaf Heads the $1,000,000 Wood Memorial

The final stop in New York on the Road to the 2016 Kentucky Derby is the $1,000,000 Wood Memorial (G1) at Aqueduct. The mile and an eighth stake on the main track has attracted a field of eight, which is headed by unbeaten Shadwell Stables runner, Shagaf. With a total of 170 Derby qualifying points [100-40-20-10] available the rest of the field is looking to finish in the top four and get a spot in the gate for the Run for the Roses.

Not since Fusaichi Pegasus finished on top in the Wood in 2000 has the winner gone on to victory in the Kentucky Derby, although in the past three years Frosted, Wicked Strong, and Normandy Invasion have finished fourth after running in the Wood.

Shagaf (ML 2-1); 3: 3-0-0; $298,800; 50 Derby Points; [Bernardini, Shadwell Stable, Chad Brown, Irad Ortiz]

Shagaf is the only horse in the field that has a spot in the Derby wrapped up. This Chad Brown trainee will gain valuable racing experience in his final Derby prep. The son of Bernardini can be difficult to work with, so the experience factor is significant when you think about the potential field of 20 at Churchill Downs.

"The horse is a little quirky,” said Brown. “All in all, I'm proud of the horse's progress mentally in terms of being agreeable to the stuff we want him to do. I think he's very adaptable.  He's sat really close to a 46 half before at Gulfstream, so he has enough speed to sit close if he needs to or wants to, and he also showed the ability to rate in his last start, so he can adapt given whatever post position or situation he's in. Irad has a lot of confidence in the horse and knows the horse well, so I'm sure he'll place him wherever he's comfortable."

Shagaf secured his 50 Derby points when he charged down the middle of the stretch to run down the pacesetter Laoban on an Aqueduct inner track that was strongly favoring inside speed.

Adventist (ML 10-1); 3: 1-0-2; $101,000; 12 Derby Points; [Any Given Saturday, Treadway Racing Stable, Leah Gyarmati, Kendrick Carmouche]

Adventist has 12 Derby points in hand, thus a third place finish would wrap a spot in the field and a fourth place would put the Leah Gyarmati trainee in a wait and see position. In the past, 20 points has been enough. In his last two starts, Adventist stepped up to the Derby Trail after breaking his maiden at first asking. He ran well, but down that stretch he ran greenly, ducking in and out.

Trainer Leah Gyarmati downplayed his erratic performance, “I don't think he was always as green as it looked; there was a lot of bumping going on and it wasn't just him. I thought he was pretty professional when he got walloped a few times and he just kept on digging in and out finished the horses he was bumping with. He's got some fight in him."

Trojan Nation (ML 30-1); 5: M-0-3; $23,290; 0 Derby Points; [Street Cry, Aaron Sones, Patrick Gallagher, Aaron Gryder]

This son of Street Cry is likely to be the longest price in the field of eight. Still a maiden after five tries on the west coast, he has had three third place finishes. In February one them was in the race where Cupid, the winner of the Rebel, registered his first career win.

Tale of S’avall (ML 20-1); 3: 1-0-0; $81,300; 0 Derby Points; [Tale of Ekati, Charles Fipke, Barclay Tagg, Cornelio Velasquez]

Tale of S’avall is under the gun and needs at least a second place performance to have enough Derby qualifying points. This Barclay Tagg runner won at first asking at Saratoga and then ran into an assortment of problems. He probably did not have enough time to be fully ready for the Tampa Bay Derby, but he may finally be on course to show his best in the Wood.

"Our backs are [kind of] to the wall here,” commented Tagg.  “We had to run him in the Tampa Derby since it was the only place we could go at the time to try to get him some points and he couldn't do it, so now we're running in the Wood. He kind of bruised his feet in the Champagne and we tried to get him to the Breeders' Cup [Juvenile]. We took him down there to Kentucky and we had slop the whole week. For a while, we've had to deal with a series of minor issues with him, just baby stuff. We took our time getting him back, got him all fixed up.”

Flexibility (ML 8-1); 5: 2-2-0; $268,500; 15 Derby Points; [Bluegrass Cat, Klaravich Stable, Chad Brown, Manuel Franco]

Flexibility will need to finish in the top four in the Wood to secure a spot in the Run for the Roses. After winning the Jerome (G3) in January this Chad Brown runner disappointed with a non-threatening fourth place in the Withers (G3). He has had some time off and Brown is just hoping that Flexibility can get the needed points.

"I think Flexibility can be competitive in the Wood, particularly with the way he is training - he is training really well,” said Brown. “We're trying to accomplish two things here. Obviously, we would love the horse to win, but if he just runs well, and earns his way into the Derby with both a good performance and points, I'm inclined to take him to Kentucky, knowing his second start off a layoff will be his better start."

Matt King Coal (ML 3-1); 4: 2-1-1; $110,500; 0 Derby Points; [Cool Coal Man, Lady Sheila Stable, Linda Rice, Jose Ortiz]

Matt King Coal has shown a great deal of talent since his debut on the grass at Saratoga as a juvenile. After his outstanding maiden win at Belmont in October, this Linda Rice trainee has had a variety of setbacks and now is playing catch-up on the Derby Trail. He will have to finish in the top two in the Wood to guarantee a spot in the Derby. An allowance win on the Gotham undercard was his only 2016 start prior to the Wood.

Rice talked about the preparations, "I was in a little bit of a rush to get him back and that's why I chose the allowance race over the Gotham, so I chose the allowance race and then that came up so tough. But he ran great and we're very excited about the Wood. It's a little added distance, tougher competition, but we're as ready as we can be."

"It can be a little intimating to jump right into a Grade 1 but I think we've taken all the natural steps," Rice continued. "He broke his maiden and we gave him time last fall. He was running fast numbers and he looked like a nice colt, so I wanted to give him a chance to grow up before I threw him into the deep end of the pool." 

Dalmore (ML 12-1); 7: 1-3-0; $74,502; 0 Derby Points; [Colonel John, Big Chief Racing, Keith Desormeaux, Junior Alvarado]

This well-travelled colt will be making his eighth career start in the Wood after breaking his maiden just over two weeks ago at Santa Anita, in the race in which Zenyatta’s son Ziconic finished fifth in his second effort. This son of Colonel John had three starts last summer on New York tracks with the rest of his races at Santa Anita. Dalmore is not Triple Crown nominated.

Outwork (ML 5-2); 3: 2-1-0; $111,800; 20 Derby Points; [Uncle Mo, Repole Stable, Todd Pletcher, John Velazquez]

The only loss in Outlook’s career came at the hands of his talented stablemate, Destin, in the Tampa Bay Derby (G2). This son of Uncle Mo ran a big race in only his third start. With a top four finish, the Repole Stable runner would have enough points to join the Uncle Mo reunion on the First Saturday in May.

"He's a big, strong colt,” said Pletcher. “I thought he was surprisingly precocious last year when he won the 4 ½-furlong race [an April maiden special weight at Keeneland]. He got some time off after that and everything's gone really well this winter. He stepped up off one six-furlong race and ran a really key race in the Tampa Derby and we hope that that race and the works he's had since then will move him forward."

RACE ANALYSIS

This year’s Wood Memorial presents interesting handicapping scenarios with the top contenders in the race divided as pacesetters and those that like to make their move later in the race. Matt King Coal won his March allowance race at Aqueduct by leading the mile and a sixteenth every step of the way, holding off the late run of the talented My Son Sam after a layoff from October. Outwork also likes the front end and has plenty of speed of his own. The two of them earned big Beyer Speed Figures last time: Matt King Coal 97 and Outwork 98. Both colts appear to be improving and a brisk early pace is likely. The set-up should be ideal for the closers like Shagaf, Flexibility, and Adventist.

QUESTIONS TO CONSIDER

Matt King Coal and Outwork need the Derby points and should be primed for big efforts. Can one or both of them survive a front-end battle? Shagaf already has enough points to run in the Derby, so will he be at his peak on Saturday?  Flexibility and Adventist don’t necessarily need to win, the second or third place points would suffice. Flexibility is coming in to the race off a layoff, while Adventist should be ready for a big effort.  Will the recently opened Aqueduct main track provide an advantage to either of the running styles? Keep an eye on the way the track is playing throughout the day.

PREDICTED ORDER OF FINISH

1) Matt King Coal

2) Shagaf

3) Outwork

4) Adventist

SPECIAL PICK 4 WAGERS

NYRA and Keeneland are combining to offer a new 50¢ Pick 4 wager. The Big Apple/Bluegrass Pick 4 begins with the Bay Shore (4:52 p.m. EDT), followed by the Madison (5:20 p.m. EDT), the Wood Memorial (5:30 p.m. EDT) and the Blue Grass (6 p.m. EDT).

A $500,000 Guaranteed All Graded Stakes Pick 4 will comprise races 8-11 and begin with the Gazelle (post time 4:16 p.m. EDT), followed by the Bay Shore (post time 4:52 p.m. EDT), the Wood Memorial (post time 5:30 p.m. EDT) and the Carter Handicap (post time 6:08 p.m. EDT).