Shadwell Turf Mile 2018: Odds and analysis

Keeneland's Grade 1 Shadwell Turf Mile attracted an overflow field to vie for the $ 1 million purse along with a “Win and You’re In” spot in the Breeders’ Cup Turf on Saturday.

Carded as race 10 out of 11, the field includes Almanaar and Qurbaan, who will be wearing the colors of Shadwell Stable as the operation seeks its first win in the race that has lone carried the name.

Here is a look at the field and its two also-eligibles with early morning line odds by Horse Racing Nation. Post time is scheduled for 5:49 p.m. ET.

Next Shares [ML 30-1 – Archarcharch – Baltas/Gaffalione – 19: 4-4-2 - $467,697] He exits an impressive win in the restricted Old Friends Stakes at Kentucky Downs thanks to a big closing move. It is worth noting that in past years, winners at Kentucky Downs have performed well in their subsequent starts. However, this West Coast-based runner is winless at the mile distance and in graded stakes races. He did get within a neck of Heart to Heart in the Shoemaker Mile (G1) back in May at Santa Anita. Keeps coming up short in graded stakes.

Divisidero [ML 20-1 – Kitten’s Joy – Rubley/J. Toledo – 21: 6-3-4 - $1,317,019] Divisidero has scored some big wins in his career, but none of them came at the mile distance. Last year he rallied from the back of the pack to finish fourth in the Shadwell Mile. Since changing trainers for 2018, he won the Arlington Handicap (G3) and then ran third and fifth in the Grade 1 Fourstardave and Woodbine Mile, respectively. Winless at a mile.
 

Great Wide Open (IRE) [ML 30-1 – Starspanglebanner (AUS) – C. Murphy/J. Graham – 35: 5-5-4 - $191,407] This 6-year-old ran second behind Bound for Nowhere at Kentucky Downs, marking his best performance in a stakes race recently. He last won a race in an allowance at the Fair Grounds back in March. Great Wide Open's top efforts came when he was able to get to the lead early on. Three of his five wins came when he was racing in Great Britain and Ireland. Facing a class test.

Imperative [ML 30-1 – Bernardini – Quartarolo/Jimenez – 41: 6-8-3 - $2,988,135] Loooch Racing gets its longshot entry into this big race as has come to be expected. Now 8 years old, Imperative has not won a race since the 2017 Charles Town Classic. In seven starts, this winner of just under $3 million has never won a race on the turf and now takes on some talented milers. It has been more than two years since he has even been on the grass. Grass in not the place I’d expect to see this one.
 

Heart to Heart [ML 12-1 – English Channel – B. Lynch/Leparoux – 37: 15-6-3 - $2,012,290] Heart to Heart is a miler with six wins from 19 starts at that distance. Most recently he won the Maker's 46 Mile at Keeneland in April. He is yet another in this field who needs to be on the early lead to do his best running. Last time in the Fourstardave he broke awkwardly, couldn’t get the lead, and ended up finishing sixth. He was second last year in the Shadwell Mile. A classy miler with 15 career victories.
 

Synchrony [ML 15-1 – Tapit – Stidham/Lanerie – 16: 7-3-4 - $616,552] He comes to Kentucky in fine form following two Grade 3 victories at Monmouth Park this summer. The son of Tapit does not run a bad race, hitting the board in his last nine starts. The Red Bank (G3) represented his first win at the mile distance, and he recorded one of his career best speed figures. Perhaps he's best at eight furlongs, plus is a past winner at Keeneland. This competitive son of Tapit deserves our respect.

Qurbaan [ML 4-1 – Speightstown – McLaughlin/M. Smith – 14: 6-1-2 - $313,108] This 5-year-old made an impressive American debut when he rallied to win the Bernard Baruch (G2) at Saratoga by a nose. Bred by Shadwell Stable, this one had been racing in France through 2017. Kiaran McLaughlin trained the son of Speightstown upstate at the Greentree Training Center in Saratoga. He raced with Lasix for the first-time in that victory. He won on firm going in the Baruch, but obviously has experience on the softer European courses. Lots of upside on this one after big American debut.
 

Multiplier [ML 50-1 – The Factor – P. Miller/Hernandez Jr. – 14: 3-1-3 - $278,050] There must have been space on the plane from California, so trainer Peter Miller loaded Multiplier aboard. He had one allowance win on the grass in five tries and he was not a threat in three tries this year in graded stakes. In a very tough spot.

Analyze It [ML 7-2 – Point of Entry – C. Brown/J. Velazquez – 6: 3-3-0 - $529,400] This will be the first time that this Chad Brown runner takes on older horses, which means a three-pound allowance for the sophomore. After winning the first three starts of his career, including the Transylvania (G3) at Keeneland to start 2018, he has lost three stretch duels by narrow margins. It is important to note that two of those losses came to Catholic Boy. Analyze It now cuts back to the mile, which was the distance of his first two victories. Takes on older horses for the first time.
 

Voodoo Song [ML 15-1 – English Channel – L. Rice/Lezcano – 17: 8-2-1 - $880,935] The popular Linda Rice runner makes a rare trip outside  New York, which he has only left once for back-to-back races in 2017. Then, he ran fifth at Hawthorne and second at Laurel. Duplication of his front-running victory in the Fourstardave (G1) makes him a serious threat in here. There is no doubt that Voodoo Song will try and get to the lead. He appears to be the speed of the speed in here. Makes a rare start away from New York.

Almanaar (GB) [ML 5-2 – Dubawi (IRE) – C. Brown/Castellano – 16: 6-4-2 - $685,849] Chad Brown sends Almanaar to Keeneland after running second behind his stablemate Robert Bruce in the Arlington Million. This 6-year-old has been running in races longer than the mile, but in Europe he recorded two stakes wins, including a Grade 3 at the distance. A Shadwell home-bred will try and win the Shadwell mile with a late closing move. He's run twice in the last year and is eligible to improve.

Mr. Misunderstood [ML 15-1 – Archarcharch – Cox/Geroux – 19: 11-2-1 - $707,854] Back in 2017, the Mister won seven out of eight starts during a run that included five stakes races in a row. He also has five wins at the mile distance. In June, he won the Wise Dan (G2) at Churchill Downs, showing there's class in this runner. His off-the-pace running style fits really well in this field. Seeking his first Grade 1 win.
 

Big Score [ML 20-1 – Mr. Big – Yakteen/Santana Jr. – 14: 3-4-3 - $553,172] Interestingly, Big Score’s last victory came back in April of 2017 in the Transylvania (G3), the only time that he has ever run at Keeneland. So, California-based trainer Tim Yakteen will try and get back the magic that they found in Lexington. To Big Score's credit, his PPs are filled with Grade 1 and 2 starts where he has been cashing checks. Lately, he has had a tendency to break slowly, which is especially troublesome when going this distance. Last win came at Keeneland.

Bound for Nowhere [ML 6-1 – The Factor – Ward/J. Garcia – 8: 5-0-1 - $755,607] This a talented and well-travelled runner for Wesley Ward. Last time out he won the Tourist Mile Stakes at Kentucky Downs to go with two wins at Keeneland and a third in the Diamond Jubilee (G1) at Royal Ascot back in June. The Factor colt likes to contest the early pace. Overall he has won three of his last four starts in 2018. He showed he can handle the mile last time out.

Zulu Alpha [AE #1 – Street Cry (IRE) – John Ortiz/L. Saez – 19: 5-3-4 - $177,734] This one was claimed just a few weeks ago from his last start for $80,000 from Neil Howard when he was a nine-length victor in a high-level allowance race at Churchill Downs. The 5-year-old is in the best form of his career, but he has never won a stakes race of any kind. Claimed last start for $80,000. Best win is an allowance race.
 

Holiday Stone [AE #2 – Harlan’s Holiday – Weaver/L. Saez – 15: 3-2-3 - $231,390] He sports three career victories, but none of them came in a stakes race. This George Weaver trainee won an allowance at Saratoga in September in what was his first start since December. Significant improvement will be needed to compete here.