Rachel's Valentina Favored in the Spinaway

The summer of 2015 marked the return to Saratoga of Rachel Alexandra. The 2009 Horse of the Year had one career victory at the Spa and that occurred exactly six years ago when the Stonestreet Stables star valiantly defeated the boys in the famous “Rachel Alexandra Raises the Rafters" Woodward Stakes (below).

The return to Saratoga to which I referred came when both of her offspring won at first asking. Her first foal Jess’s Dream, a colt by Stonestreet’s other Horse of the Year Curlin, became a winner on August 24^th when he made an amazing rally from last place, 18 ½ lengths behind the leader, to win by a length in the mile and eighth maiden race (below).

                                              All photos courtesy of NYRA 

It was Rachel Alexandra’s youngest, and what will be her last runner, who started things off this summer when she won as a first time starter on August 2nd. Rachel’s Valentina, who was sired by Bernardini, also came from off the pace as she beat her maiden field by two lengths (pictured on top). Rachel’s Valentina will make her second career start in the Spinaway (G1), where she has been installed as the 5-2 morning line favorite, on the sixth anniversary of her mom’s historic Woodward Stakes victory.

[I hope you noticed from the photos in an amazing coincidence that Rachel Alexandra and her two runners all wore the blue number three saddlecloth in their Saratoga victories.]

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On Saturday, New York will offer its first grade one for two-year-olds in the $350,000 Spinaway (G1), which is a "Win and You're In" race for the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies. The 124^th running of this historic seven-furlong stake drew a field of six, all of whom come into the race with just a maiden victory.

Tap to It [by Tapit, ML 7-2, Nicks, Rosario] – Add this filly to the long list of gray Tapit juveniles with impressive debut victories. She rallied from far back to win at Saratoga going six furlongs on August 16 after being steadied and shuffled back during the race.

Rachel's Valentina [by Bernardini, ML 5-2, Pletcher, Velazquez] – She was sent off as the 1.05-1 betting favorite and after a slow start from the gate she rallied to win her maiden race by two lengths.

"I thought her debut was everything we were hoping it would be," said trainer Todd Pletcher. "She was very professional, settled off the pace, closed well, galloped out strongly and has trained well since then. We always felt like more distance would be what she wants. So we are looking forward to getting her going."

Tonasah [by Malibu Moon, ML 7-2, Pletcher, Castellano] – With a second place finish in the Adirondack (G2) at Saratoga as the 1.25-1 favorite, this filly has an experience edge over some of this field. She was beaten by Just Wicked, an impressive daughter of Tapit from the connections of Untapable. Tonasah won her debut by 6 ½ lengths.

"She bounced out of the last race well," said Pletcher. "We'll try her back, take the blinkers off and hopefully get her to be a little kinder in the first part."

Anna Rae [by Tiz Wonderful, ML 12-1, J. Englehart, L. Saez] – She was an impressive 11 ½-length winner in a $50,000 maiden claimer on August 14 at Saratoga. Trainer Jeremiah Englehart’s barn is red hot right now and he is having by far his best meeting at the Spa.

"I was a little surprised, I didn't really expect that [kind of effort]," Englehart said of the Tiz Wonderful filly, a $30,000 purchase this spring. "To me, what was most impressive was the last sixteenth of a mile. She seemed to get better as she went longer. I've actually been pretty happy with how she's training. She seems to be a little bit more aggressive coming out of the race."

Constellation [by Bellamy Road, ML 3-1, Asmussen, I. Ortiz] – This Steve Asmussen runner, whose two-year-olds often need a race, was sent off as the 1.95-1 favorite in her debut maiden victory on August 9.

Banree [by Macho Uno, ML 8-1, Ward, Hernandez] This gray filly with three career starts was runner-up in the Schuylerville (G2) on opening day at Saratoga. She was a winner of an April maiden special weight at Keeneland and ran fifth in the Tremont at Belmont Park in June.

ANALYSIS:

The Spinaway is carded as race 9 with a post time of 5:11 PM and it begins the late Pick 4.

NYRA Oddsmaker Eric Donovan painted the right picture of a wide-open race with four horses having morning line odds between 5-2 and 7-2. When the six horses have only six wins between them the field has to be fairly evenly matched.

I see five of the six fillies as contenders and I will be including the morning line long shot in the group. Constellation and Tonasah appear to be the pace setters going seven furlongs, the farthest that any of these two-year-olds have ever run. Although Pletcher said they will try and get Tonasah to relax early in the race, I am dubious about the sudden change in running style. The extra distance seems to set things up for the closers: Rachel’s Valentina, Tap to It, and 12-1 long shot Anna Rae.

I would choose to bet the Spinaway as part of Daily Doubles, Pick 3’s, or the late Pick 4 using Rachel’s Valentina, Tap to It, and Anna Rae. As you build your tickets, be sure to consult the Woodward Stakes analysis of my HorseCenter partner Brian Zipse.