Shifman: New shooters worth a Preakness Stakes play

One of the unique angles for handicapping the Preakness Stakes every year involves the “new shooters,” or horses in the field that did not run two weeks prior in the Kentucky Derby. Although the new shooters don’t win often, they frequently hit the board.

Since 2000, four new shooters have won the Preakness, including the filly Rachel Alexandra in 2009. She did not run in the Derby, making her new to the Triple Crown series. However, she did win the Kentucky Oaks, which meant she came in on two weeks' rest like her male counterparts.

New shooters this century sport a record of 19: 4-8-3. Only four times have the Derby horses swept all three of the trifecta positions. Four times there were two new shooters that hit that board.

When considering a Preakness wager that involves these horses, it's important to keep in mind that Derby horses tend to take money. With the Preakness Stakes field limited to 14, and likely to measure 12 this Saturday at Pimlico, you cannot expect the kind of payouts that come on the first Saturday in May. However, bettors can be rewarded quite nicely if they are successful playing the new shooter angle.

Here is a year-by-year look at what happens when a new shooter does hit the board:

2018: Tenfold (26.10) third; trifecta $296.60

2017: Clouding Computing (13.40) first; Senior Investment (31.70) third; exacta $98.40 trifecta $2194.60

2016: Cherry Wine (17.30) second; exacta $88.40, trifecta $146.20

2015: Tale of Verve (28.50) second; Divining Rod (12.60) third; exacta $124.40, trifecta $985

2014: Social Inclusion (5.30) third; trifecta $76

2013: Derby horses swept the Top 5

2012: Derby horses swept the Top 3

2011: Astrology (15.10) third; trifecta $1,401.80

2010: First Dude second (23.80); exacta $188.60, trifecta $2,771

2009: Rachel Alexandra (1.80*) first; exacta $39.20, trifecta $216.20

2008: Icabad Crane (22.20) third; trifecta $336.80

2007: Derby horses swept the Top 3

2006: Bernardini (12.90) first; Hemingway’s Key (29.40) third with Barbaro the favorite; exacta $171.60, trifecta $3,912.80

2005: Scrappy T (13.10) second; exacta $152.60, trifecta $872

2004: Rock Hard Ten (6.90) second; Eddington (13.20) third; exacta $24.60, trifecta $177.20

2003: Midway Road (20.00) second; exacta $120.60, trifecta $684.20

2002: Magic Weisner (45.70) second; exacta $327, trifecta $2,311

2001: Derby horses swept the Top 4

2000: Red Bullet (6.20) first; exacta $24, trifecta $115.80

Applying all of this information to the 2019 Preakness, there are decisions to be made.

• Since the year 2000, four is a key number in this discussion because only four times has a Derby horse not won the Preakness and only four times has a new shooter missed the trifecta.

• Typically, a play that uses a Derby horse with the new shooters is the way to go. Last year there was talk of a Triple Crown in Baltimore and Justify was an odds-on favorite at .40-1. The suggested trifecta wager of Justify with the other Derby horses with all the new shooters hit when Tenfold ran third at 26-1 and fueled a nearly $300 trifecta.

• History says that a Derby horse will win and a new shooter will hit the board. So, a $1 trifecta play could be: Improbable, War of Will, and Win Win Win; with Alwaysmining, Bourbon War, Owendale, Anothertwistafate, Laughing Fox, Signalman; with Improbable, War of Will, and Win Win, Win. That totals $36.

• However, this seems like a year when the Derby horses are particularly vulnerable, since it is the first time this century that none of the top three finishers from the first Saturday in May are in the Preakness.

If you feel like this is a year when a new shooter will break through, consider this play for $18: Alwaysmining, Bourbon War and Owendale; with Improbable, War of Will, Win Win Win; with Improbable, War of Will, Win Win Win for $18.

Using the new shooters has produced some nice prices, with this a particularly timely renewal to consider the angle. Good luck with your Preakness bets.