New shooters an enticing Preakness 2018 proposition

One of the unique angles for handicapping the Preakness Stakes every year involves the “new shooters,” or the horses in the field that did not run in the Kentucky Derby. Although the new shooters don’t win the Preakness often, frequently they do impact the results with a Top 3 finish.

Since the year 2000, the four new shooters to have won the Preakness includes Rachel Alexandra in 2009. She did not run in the Derby; however, she did win the Kentucky Oaks by a wide margin and entered on the same two weeks' rest as her male counterparts.

Looking at the best performances by new shooter during the above time period, they sport a record of 18: 4-8-2. Only four times have the Derby horses swept all three of the trifecta positions. Four times there were two new shooters that hit that board, but they have never swept the entire trifecta since 2000.

When considering a Preakness wager that involves the new shooters, it is important to keep in mind that the Derby horses take most of the betting money. That means when a new shooter does hit the board, they typically do so as a longshot. With the Preakness field limited to 14, you cannot expect the kind of payouts that come on the first Saturday in May. However, bettors can be rewarded quite nicely if they are successful playing horses that didn't run in the Derby.

Here is a year-by-year look at what happens when a new shooter does hit the board, with odds of said horse and $2 exotic payouts provided.

2017 – Clouding Computing (13.40) first, Senior Investment (31.70) third – exacta $98.40, trifecta $2194.60

2016 – Cherry Wine (17.30) second – exacta $88.40, trifecta $146.20

2015 –Tale of Verve (28.50) second, Divining Road (12.60) third – exacta $124.40, trifecta $985

2014 – Social Inclusion (5.30) third – trifecta $76

2013 – Derby horses swept the Top 5

2012 – Derby horses swept the Top 3

2011 – Astrology (15.10) third – trifecta $1,401.80

2010 – First Dude second (23.80) – exacta $188.60, trifecta $2,771

2009 – Rachel Alexandra (1.80*) first – exacta $39.20, trifecta $216.20

2008 – Icabad Crane (22.20) third – trifecta $336.80

2007 - Derby horses swept the Top 3

2006 – Bernardini (12.90) first, Hemingway’s Key (29.40) third, Barbaro was the favorite – exacta $171.60, trifecta $3,912.80

2005 – Scrappy T (13.10) second – exacta $152.60, trifecta $872

2004 – Rock Hard Ten (6.90) second, Eddington (13.20) third – exacta $24.60, trifecta $177.20

2003 – Midway Road (20.00) second – exacta $120.60, trifecta $684.20

2002 – Magic Weisner (45.70) second – exacta $327, trifecta $2,311

2001 - Derby horses swept the Top 4

2000 - Red Bullet (6.20) first – exacta $24, trifecta $115.80

Applying all of this new shooter information to the 2018 Preakness, there are decisions to be made.

• If you think that this could be a year when the Derby horses sweep the Top 3 positions, then you should skip the vertical wagers.

• If you think that Justify is on his way to Triple Crown glory, but that the other Derby horses are vulnerable, then you might want to use the new shooters in the exotic wagers. A Justify with new shooter with new shooter trifecta is only 12 combinations. That strategy paid handsomely in 2015 with odds-on Amercan Pharoah.

• You can also combine the new shooters and the Derby horses in a trifecta play – Justify with new shooters with Good Magic, Bravazo and Lone Sailor; or Justify with Good Magic, Bravazo, Lone Sailor with new shooters. Those tickets are only 12 combinations.

Historically, using the new shooters has produced nice prices, and it is clearly a handicapping angle worth considering. Good luck with your Preakness bets.