Pegasus World Cup 2018: Odds and analysis for Saturday's race

The second running of the Pegasus World Cup is scheduled for Saturday, with this year's field of 12 featuring eight horses at the $1 million mark for earnings. The morning line favorite, Gun Runner, is looking to boost his bankroll to $15,998,500 which would make him the second richest thoroughbred in North American history behind last year’s Pegasus winner, Arrogate, and just ahead of California Chrome.

The field contains the top five finishers from the Breeders’ Cup Classic and six Grade 1 stakes winners. Jorge Navarro and Bob Baffert have two entries each.

This year, the race has an estimated purse of $16.3 million with the winner receiving $7 million, $1.6 million to second-place, $1.3 million for third, fourth gets $1 million, $850,000 is the payday for fifth, and for all other runners it is $650,000.

Here is a look at the Pegasus World Cup field with the official morning line odds.

 Singing Bullet [ML 30-1 – Hard Spun – Romans/Albarado – 10: 3-2-1 - $150,764] Singing Bullet has one win in his last five allowance starts, and that was going a one-turn mile at Churchill Downs. He has a third-place finish in the sprinting Amsterdam (G2) at Saratoga this past summer. This two-turn test seems to be way too much to ask for this son of Hard Spun and the distinguished mare Life At Ten. Too much to ask.

West Coast [ML – 8-1 - Flatter – Baffert/Castellano – 9: 6-2-1 - $2,083,800] Unraced as a juvenile, West Coast put together a likely 2017 championship campaign when he swept to big wins in the Travers (G1) and the Pennsylvania Derby (G1). He developed into the best 3-year-old in the country in the hands of trainer Bob Baffert. He was given a freshening after his third-place finish in the Breeders’ Cup Classic behind Gun Runner and Collected. It will be interesting if the son of Flatter continues to get better as a 4-year-old. Here, in the Pegasus, he should sit in perfect position behind the early speed, waiting to make his move down the stretch. However, it will be very hard to beat Gun Runner. Likely second best.

 Stellar Wind [ML – 30-1 – Curlin – C. Brown/Rosario – 16: 10-2-1 - $2,253,200] The champion 3-year-old filly champion of 2015 will be the first female runner in the Pegasus. What an amazing career this daughter of Curlin has had. Coolmore purchased her for $6 million at the recent Keeneland November sale, and they quickly stated that she would run in the Pegasus. She was moved to Chad Brown's barn, and it is up to the Eclipse Award-winning trainer to get her back on track after she showed no interest in running in the Breeders’ Cup Distaff. Brown is solid with horses new to his barn. Does the now-6-year-old have a big performance left in her? She will need one to compete with some of these guys. At her best, she likes to be close to the pace and then battle it out down the stretch. She’ll need to be at her best to compete.

 Sharp Azteca [ML – 6-1 - Freud - J. Navarro/I. Ortiz - 16: 8-5-1 –  $1,756,740] I consider Sharp Azteca a bit of a wild card in the Pegasus. The son of Freud turned in one of his career best performances in the Cigar Mile when Javier Castellano got on board and had him rate behind the speed, but Castellano will be riding West Coast in this spot. Irad Ortiz gets on board, and he is equally adept at rating a horse. Sharp Azteca is no stranger to Gulfstream Park, where he has a career record of 5: 3-1-0 with all three victories coming in one-turn miles. Only once has he ever won going two turns, and that was against a soft field at Monmouth Park.

What should be expected from Sharp Azteca? Will he be a stalker or will he be running on the lead? Either way, against this kind of competition the extra distance and the two turns loom as obstacles. Can he hold on and bring home one of the million-dollar paychecks? He must deal with the distance.

 Collected [ML – 8-1 - City Zip – Baffert/M. Smith – 13: 8-2-1 - $2,316,500] Collected had a heck of a year to start 2017, with four consecutive victories including the Pacific Classic (G1) against Arrogate. He was second best in the Breeders' Cup Classic, and most recently he finished third in the San Antonio after uncharacteristically dawdling at the back of the field. Was it a bad decision by rider Mike Smith in the San Antonio, or was he feeling the effects of his summer/fall campaign? Regardless, Collected does his best running on the lead, and that is where I expect to see him in the Pegasus.  He will find plenty of company out there and he will need to check his rear-view mirror coming down the stretch. Expect him to be running early.

 Gunnevera [ML – 15-1 – Dialed In – Sano/L. Saez – 14: 5-3-1 - $1,627,200] Is it Gunnevera’s time in the Pegasus? Trainer Antonio Sano has been prepping him at Gulfstream Park West since his fifth-place finish in the Classic. It is well known that the son of Dialed In loves Gulfstream Park, where he has a record of 7: 3-2-1. One of those wins came on the 2017 Kentucky Derby trail in the Fountain of Youth (G2). Actually, that was his last graded stakes victory. Gunnevera has never won a Grade 1 stakes, and it seems unlikely that he would get one here in the Pegasus. He will be making his closing move as the field turns for home, but he won’t be alone in doing so. Passes tired horses.

 Fear the Cowboy [ML - 30-1 – Cowboy Cal – Loza Jr./Gaffalione – 27: 9-7-2- $570,869] Fear the Cowboy was bred by the University of Kentucky and was once sold for $1,500. Now a 6-year-old, he has two Grade 3 wins, including the recent Harlan’s Holiday at Gulfstream Park against a field of solid handicap horses. Those races are a far cry from this Pegasus field, and this guy will leave the gate at a high price. A big longshot.

War Story [ML – 25-1 - Northern Afleet – J. Navarro/J. Ortiz – 24: 5-3-3 - $1,584,305] This 6-year-old has run at 13 different tracks in his career and has taken on many of the best older horses in the country. His last three races produced fourth-place finishes in Grade 1 stakes, including the Breeders’ Cup Classic. The Loooch Racing runner always tries hard coming down the stretch and I expect the same in the Pegasus. Another fourth-place finish possible?

Toast of New York [ML – 20-1 –Thewayyouare - J. Osbourne/Dettori - 9: 4-3-0 -$2,359,014] Another wild card in this field, because although he is 7-years-old old, he has only raced nine times. After his narrow loss in the 2014 Classic, he developed a slight tendon tear and thus he was sent to stud. After limited success he was returned to racing in December in England. European trainers are good at getting their horses in shape without much racing. If he can get Toast of New York in top form, he could be dangerous coming down the stretch. Can this European be ready?

 Gun Runner [ML 4-5 - Candy Ride – Asmussen/ Geroux - 18: 11-3-2 - $8,998,500] Since Gun Runner began his career back in Sept. 11, 2015, with a first-out maiden victory at Churchill Downs, he has had no significant physical problems and has remained in training for more than two years. The son of Candy Ride improved with age. Not to forget that he was third in the 2016 Kentucky Derby behind Nyquist after a great run in Louisiana on the Derby trail, but it was not until Hall of Fame trainer Steve Asmussen decided to “let Gun Runner be Gun Runner” that he found his best. Gun Runner broke through for a Grade 1 victory in the 2016 Clark Handicap by using his speed and run on the lead. From that point forward he lost only once, and that was in the 2017 Dubai World Cup. Gun Runner now is best when sits just behind the early leader and then goes by heading for home.

Gun Runner has never run at Gulfstream Park, but he has raced at 10 different tracks and, given dry conditions, he has handled them all, thus the Florida track should be no different. Also, the nine furlongs is probably the best distance for him.

One way or another, the early pace in the Pegasus should be strong and I fully expect Gun Runner to be stalking the leaders, although he is quite capable of running with them. He is just too good for the rest of the field and he will sweep past the them to close out his career in the only way that would be fitting, with an impressive victory. A victorious finale is expected.

 Seeking the Soul [ML – 25-1 – Perfect Soul – Stewart/Velazquez – 17: 5-3-5 - $551,162] Seeking the Soul had a breakthrough victory in his last start in the Clark Handicap (G1). Granted, it was not the strongest running of that Churchill Downs stake. Previously, the son of Perfect Soul had found success in the allowance ranks, but had no luck at the next level. Trainer Dallas Stewart has had a history of getting longshot horses to hit the board in big races at big prices. Seeking the Soul is a closer and he will be a big price in the richest race in the world. He is among several who should do his best running at the end. Big price for the superfecta.

 Giant Expectations [ML - 30-1 – Frost Giant – Eurton/G. Stevens – 13: 4-3-1 - $449,200] This son of Frost Giant has won twice at the Grade 2 level. Most recently in the San Antonio, he was sent to the front and led wire to wire after Collected opted to run from behind. In the Pat O’Brien, he rallied from behind to win that seven-furlong contest. Using either of those tactics, this will be a very tough spot for Giant Expectations. Up against it here.

SUMMARY:

Regardless of which horses are involved, it seems certain that the nine-furlong race will have an honest early pace, and that should allow most of the field the opportunity to show their best stuff whether they prefer to be involved in that front-running duel or to make a late closing bid. In the end, it is very hard to see any scenario in which Gun Runner is not the winner. West Coast seems to be the most likely second-place finisher. I know that is a chalky result, but in fairness I can’t tout any other result.

First, I would check the prices for the Gun Runner-West Coast exacta. If it is paying $15 or more, I think it is worth a bet. The Gun Runner-West Coast exacta paid $17.20!

Also, I see some value in the third and fourth spots, so trifecta and superfecta plays may be the way to go. Four long shots are the ones to use to round out those exotic wagers: War Story, Toast of New York, Gunnevera, and Seeking the Soul. I will try and get a better payout by not using Collected and Sharp Azteca, who are the likely third and fourth choices.