Ogden Phipps 2017: Odds and Analysis topped by Songbird

The presence of the two-time champion Songbird in the $750,000 Ogden Phipps (G1) serves to make one of the best days of racing in the country, that much more special. The race was run originally from 1961 to 2001 as the Hempstead Handicap and then was renamed in 2002 to honor the influential New York horseman, Ogden Phipps. Currently the race is run as a one-turn mile and a sixteenth at Belmont Park and is part of the Breeders’ Cup ‘Win and You’re In’ Challenge Series that will get the winner a spot in the BC Distaff, which will be run on November 3 at Del Mar.

A small, but distinguished field of seven is set for the 49^th running of the Ogden Phipps. The Phipps is slated as race five on Saturday with post time at 1:52pm ET.

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Bar of Gold [20-1 – Medaglia d’Oro – John Kimmel - 18: 5-4-3 - $784,000] This five-year-old New York-bred has been running well in open company this year. She most recently finished second to Highway Star in the Ruffian. All of her wins have come on off tracks, but a dry track is likely on Saturday. Tangling with the likes of Songbird and Carina Mia is a significant step-up in class. Tough spot for this NY-bred.

Carina Mia [8-1 – Malibu Moon - Bill Mott – 11: 4-3-2- $1,083,520] The good news for Carina Mia is that this mile and a sixteenth grade one is around one-turn and that she is a perfect one for one at Belmont Park. The bad news is that she is facing her nemesis Songbird. In 2016, she finished second to Songbird in the Cotillion and the CCA Oaks; however, both of those races were around two turns. Carina Mia is making her second start of the year and should be at her best in the Phipps. Will this be another battle out front between her and Songbird? What if Songbird is not quite 100% in her debut? Upset possibility?

Factory of Faith [30-1 – Bluegrass Cat - Joe Sharp – 24: 4-4-1 - $104,957] Owners Loooch Racing are never afraid to take a shot in the biggest races and this five-year-old will be a very longshot. The allowance winner has not won a race in sixteen months and that race was on the grass. Does not fit here.

Highway Star [10-1 – Girolamo - Rodrigo Ubillo – 10: 7-0-1 - $614,000] This New York-bred has exploded in graded stakes company in her last four starts during the winter and spring. She won the Go for Wand and Distaff at Aqueduct and then most recently took the Ruffian. Highway Star loves Belmont Park where she is perfect in four career starts. With all of her recent success, she has never tangled with the likes of Carina Mia and Songbird, but right now trainer Rodrigo Ubillo has Highway Star at the top of her game. She likes to sit a couple of lengths behind the pace. She is very good right now.

Paid Up Subscriber [15-1 – Candy Ride - Chad Brown – 13: 4-4-2 - $612,850] Now a five-year-old, Paid Up Subscriber has not won a race in a year, since the Fleur de Lis (G2) at Churchill Downs. This Chad Brown runner has been competing well in grade one company in her last five starts. This classy daughter of Candy Ride fits well here, but she will certainly have to sit behind the early pace in the Phipps. Classy mare.

Songbird [1-5 – Medaglia d’Oro - Jerry Hollendorfer – 12: 11-1-0 - $3,712,000] The Champion Two-Year-Old Filly of 2015 and Three-Year-Old Filly of 2016 makes her 2017 debut in the Ogden Phipps. Her only career defeat came in the Breeders’ Cup Distaff by the narrowest of margins to the superstar Beholder. With no intention to stir up controversy, I must admit that every time I watch the replay of the Distaff it looks like Songbird won and I’m pretty good at calling finishes. Songbird has been that good in her career.

To be fair I must ask the next two questions. Is it possible that Songbird could come back a bit short in her first start as a four-year-old and thus be even the slightest bit vulnerable? Or is it possible that she comes back and does not have the same interest in competing? We have seen it happen before with other top runners.

To be honest I don’t expect either of those two things to happen. I do expect to see a more mature Songbird who could be even more formidable on the racetrack. I fully expect to see Mike Smith and Songbird dispatch this field with ease. The Champ is back and better than ever.

Verve’s Tale [20-1 – Tale of Ekati – Barclay Tagg – 12: 2-6-2 - $330,500] Verve’s Tale most recently ran fourth in the Ruffian behind Highway Star and Bar of Gold. This four-year-old is a graded stakes winner from the Comely at Aqueduct in November when she upset the good filly, Lewis Bay. She fits well with a few of the other runners in this field, but not with the top two or three. Could hit the board.