Met Mile 2018: Odds and analysis led by Mind Your Biscuits

Mind Your Biscuits headlines the 2018 Met Mile, one of a slew of Grade 1 events on Saturday's Belmont Stakes undercard. The one-turn mile distance of the race challenges the horses to combine the speed of sprinters with the stamina of routers. Most of the horses in the field have something to prove in that regard.

With a purse of $1.2 million, the Met Mile is run under handicap conditions, and even though 3-year-olds get a break in weights, Honour and Glory was last sophomore to win this race back in 1996.

The Met Mile is part of the Breeders’ Cup Challenge Series with a ‘Win and You’re In’ spot in the Dirt Mile available.

Here is the field of 11 for the Met Mile, carded as Race 9 of 13 with post time scheduled for 4:45pm ET.

Mind Your Biscuits [ML 5-2 - Posse – Summers/Rosario – 21: 7-8-3 - $3,719,286] Mind Your Biscuits is going to be a heavy favorite in the Met Mile as the most accomplished runner in the field, but the mile distance is the question that Biscuits must answer. In his last try at the eight furlongs in the Cigar Mile, he was second to Sharp Azteca’s overwhelming performance, though he did handle the rest of the field easily. His repeat victory in Dubai was tremendous when he looked hopelessly beaten at the top of the stretch on a race track that was playing strongly against his running style. Yet, he unleashed his tremendous closing move and mowed down the field.

"I think this year he's bigger, faster, and stronger, as you're supposed to be [at 5]," said trainer Chad Summers. "A horse's 5-year-old year is supposed to be the best year of a horse's life; that's when they're at their peak. Everything he shows us is that he's at his peak. Everyone's going to be coming here for Justify, but we plan on putting on a show."

I saw Biscuits train last week, and then later visited his barn, and I have to agree with Summers that he looks fantastic. I have always believed that his best distance is seven furlongs. But if he is going to get the mile distance, then going one turn at his home base of Belmont Park is where it will happen. The horse to beat, even at a mile.
 

Bolt d’Oro [ML 4-1 - Medaglia d’Oro – Ruis/Geroux – 7: 4-1-1 - $1,016,00] This 3-year-old has stirred much conversation by connections making the Met Mile his next start. First, he is facing older horses for the first time even while struggling to win in age restricted races. Is the cutback in distance to the one-turn mile going to do the trick for a horse at one time considered the crop's best Triple Crown prospect? He has not hit the wire first in a race since September. Trainer Mick Ruis is changing riders again with Florent Geroux becoming his third consecutive new jockey. To me, Bolt d’Oro would have to run the best race of his career to win the Met Mile, and even that might not even be enough. So many questions to answer in a very tough spot.
 

Limousine Liberal [ML 10-1 - Successful Appeal – Colebrook/Castellano – 21: 8-6-3 - $1,333,261] The connections of this 6-year-old must be hoping for rain, because he has a perfect record in three stakes races on wet tracks. Last out, he won the Churchill Downs (G2) on Derby day to top Warrior’s Club and Awesome Slew. Strictly a sprinter, Limousine Liberal has never tried the one-mile distance. He has shown the versatility to run on the lead or come from off the pace. The Kentucky-based gelding will make his first Belmont Park start in the Met Mile. A 6-year-old still in top form.
 

McCraken  [ML 12-1 - Ghostzapper – Wilkes/B. Hernandez – 11: 6-1-2 - $773,828] This 2017 Kentucky Derby hopeful made an impressive 2018 debut when he won an allowance going the one-turn mile at Churchill Downs. Trainer Ian Wilkes clearly had the Met Mile in mind when he chose that spot to start this year’s campaign. McCraken also won a 2-year-old stakes at this distance. The colt is also seeking his first Grade 1 win while making his first start at a New York track. He’s another late runner in a field filled with closers. The one-turn mile may be his best.

Good Samaritan [ML 10-1 - Harlan’s Holiday – Mott/J. Ortiz – 12: 4-3-2 - $1,230,316] As of late, Good Samaritan has been competing in two-turn Grade 1 and 2 races. He had a big win in the New Orleans Handicap (G2) in March. Now trainer Bill Mott turns him back in distance in this spot.

"We're anxious to try him at a flat mile," said Mott. "The Met Mile probably is one of the toughest, most competitive races you can run in all year long. It's also a race that, if you have luck and can win it, makes a horse a stallion prospect."

Clearly, Mott is taking a shot with Good Samaritan, and why not? He is already a millionaire that likes to compete. Good Samaritan seems to be short on the foot speed that is often needed in the Met Mile. This millionaire cuts back.

One Liner [ML 12-1 - Into Mischief – Pletcher/I. Ortiz – 6: 4-1-1 - $472,320] This lightly raced 4-year-old has a done quite well from only six career starts. On the Kentucky Derby trail in 2017, he won the Southwest Stakes (G3), but then he was off from an entire year. Coming back in 2018, he has an allowance win and he ran second to Irish War Cry in the Pimlico Special (G3).

"He's been versatile enough. I think he's shown that he can run well at one turn and two. We just felt like it was an opportunity for him to give it a try," trainer Todd Pletcher said. "We felt like he's here, he's doing well at the moment and sometimes you get a big effort on the cutback.”

As with several others in the race, he will reutrn to a one-turn distance and step-up to the Grade 1 level. Lightly raced 4-year-old.

Discreet Lover [ML 50-1 - Repent – St. Lewis/Franco – 39: 6-7-5 - $671,560] Here's another cutting back. Recently, this Parx Racing-based horse has been competing at distances of nine furlongs or more. He had a big victory in the Excelsior (G3) at Aqueduct, but he was not close in his last two graded stake tries. Discreet Lover seems to be lacking the needed sprinter’s speed. More of a router than a sprinter.

Ransom the Moon [ML 10-1 - Malibu Moon – D’Amato/Prat – 22: 5-7-1 - $623,829] Ransom the Moon has been competing at the Grade 1 level, even winning the Bing Crosby at Del Mar last summer over the future champion Roy H. He has not won beyond seven furlongs, so the mile will be a test. This Phil D’Amato runner figures to be close to the pace making his first start at Belmont Park, but his trainer has had good luck shipping to New York in the past. Talented sprinter stretches out.

Warrior’s Club [ML 20-1 - Warrior’s Reward – Lukas/L. Saez – 23: 5-5-4 - $614,504] Warrior’s Club exceeded expectations when he won the Commonwealth (G3) at Keeneland for this Churchill Downs Racing Club runner. Two hundred racing fans paid $500 each to become a partner in the non-profit group. Make no mistake that he is a very good sprinter, but he is another without a Grade 1 victory to his name.

"A one-turn mile is right down his alley," trainer D. Wayne Lukas said. "He's one of those wear-'em-down types.”

He should be closer to the early pace than others in here. Lukas is always willing to take a shot.
 

Bee Jersey [ML 5-1 - Jersey Town – Asmussen/Santana – 9: 4-3-1 - $326,293] He is going out on the front end looking to see how far he can carry his speed. He won his last three starts, leading every step of the way, going a mile with the most recent being his first graded stakes victory in the Sexton Mile (G3) at Lone Star. Steve Asmussen is the trainer of this Charles Fipke homebred. The likely pacesetter will try and hold on.

Awesome Slew [ML 6-1 - Awesome Again – M. Casse/J. Velazquez – 19: 5-5-5 - $1,170,940] Awesome Slew is a winner at the one-turn mile when he bested The Player at Churchill Downs in the Ack Ack (G3) back in September. This big closer always shows up and runs his race down the stretch, but he’ll have company making that move. Interestingly, this millionaire has never won a Grade 1 race. Looking for first Grade 1 win.

Summary: The nature of the Met Mile means that the field consists largely of horses that are cutting back from longer two-turn races or that they are stretching out from the shorter sprints.

Beyond the favoritism of Mind Your Biscuits, it's difficult to predict how the betting will go. I feel that Bolt d’Oro, McCraken, Good Samaritan, Bee Jersey, Limousine Liberal or Ransom the Moon would each be acceptable as second choice, although the first two are likely to take the most money.

In terms of wagering on the Met Mile, I think that Mind Your Biscuits will win the race. He appears ready to add a victory going a mile to his resume. Though the next six all have merits, I will not be using Bolt d’Oro and Ransom the Moon. McCraken is the most likely horse to complete the exacta, but there is a chance that Bee Jersey could carry his speed the entire race.

My Met Mile Exacta: Mind Your Biscuits with McCraken, Bee Jersey, and Limousine Liberal.