Kentucky Derby 2018 trail: Wood Memorial odds, analysis
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The last stop on New York's road to the 2018 Kentucky Derby is the Grade 2 Wood Memorial which runs Saturday at 1 1/8 miles at Aqueduct. With the entry of a Grade 1 winner, the Wood purse bumped up from $750,000 to $1 million.
The Wood awards Kentucky Derby qualifying points (100-40-20-10) to the Top 4 finishers, especially important in this field where only the favorite, Enticed, has already qualified for the Run for the Roses.
A field of nine assembled for the Wood, carded as Race 10 out of 11 with post time scheduled for 5:55 p.m. ET.
Heartfullofstars [ML 20-1 – (0) – Astrology – D’Amato/D. Davis – 5: 1-2-1 - $61,010] Heartfullofstars will be joining Restoring Hope on the airplane from the California. Those two have also raced one another previously. This son of Astrology ran fourth when Restoring Hope broke his maiden. He came out of that race and won a similar restricted maiden race with a five-horse field on a sloppy Santa Anita track. He began his career with three starts at Parx as a juvenile. In those Pennsylvania races, he was running for different connections. Nine furlongs may be an issue. California challenger.
Firenze Fire [ML 6-1 – (29) – Poseidon’s Warrior – Ja. Servis/Franco – 8: 4-1-0 - $604,100] Currently sitting on the bubble in position 19 in the Kentucky Derby points standings, this Mr. Amore Stables runner will need to finish in fourth place or better to bolster his chances to get to Churchill Downs. That has been a goal for owner Ron Lombardi since the horse began winning graded stakes races as a juvenile. I don’t love the nine-furlong distance for him. Can he qualify for the Derby?
Evaluator [ML 20-1 – (0) – Overanalyze – Dilger/Carmouche – 5: 2-1-0 - $215,634] New York-breds have taken other major races in the last week with Audible (Florida Derby) and Mind Your Biscuits (Dubai Golden Shaheen), but this colt is going to be asked to compete against a very strong field in the Wood. He won a state-bred stakes in his 2018 debut in January but has not run since then. Evaluator made a strong closing move in one-turn miles since switched from turf to dirt. This nice state-bred found a tough spot.
Old Time Revival [ML 6-1 – (20) – Brethren– Decker/J. Rose – 6: 1-2-1 - $108,400] This Maryland-based runner went to the lead in the Gotham and held-off all of a nine-horse field except for Enticed, who beat him by 2 3/4 lengths. Old Time Revival was another four lengths ahead of Free Drop Billy. No doubt, he will try and take this field on a merry chase, but the additional furlong does not bode well for the son of Brethren. A longshot on his way to consecutive runner-up finishes, he should get a bit more respect in the Wood. Catch him if you can.
Enticed [ML 6-5 – (63) – Medaglia d’Oro – McLaughlin/J. Alvarado – 5: 3-0-1 - $410,680] Enticed will be a worthy and likely a heavy favorite in the Wood. He looked good winning the one-turn Gotham and seems to love the New York racing surfaces. The ultimate goal for Enticed is the Derby, and with 63 points in hand he has a spot locked up. Trainer Kiaran McLaughlin’s horse does not have to win this race, while several others must be primed for a big effort to gather qualifying points. Enticed is the likeliest winner, but he is not in a favorable situation for horseplayers. Big favorite will be tough to bet.
Catch Twenty Two [ML 50-1 – (0) – Super Saver – Chatterpaul/L. Reyes – 2: 1-0-0 - $27,600] His maiden victory came in a $50,000 event in December in which he was claimed away from trainer Chad Brown. In his 2018 debut, he clipped heels in a starter allowance and did not finish the race. Now trainer Naipaul Chatterpaul sends the Super Saver colt into this Grade 2 stakes. A real longshot.
King Zachary [ML 20-1 – (0) – Curlin – Romans/Albarado – 3: 1-0-2 - $38,670] Trainer Dale Romans has gone everywhere on the Derby trail giving his horses their chance to make some noise in the prep races. King Zachary just broke his maiden a few weeks ago at Gulfstream. The horse seems up against it, but Romans won the Grade 2 Gulfstream Park Oaks last weekend with Coach Rocks, who had just won her maiden race in her seventh start. King Zachary has a chance if he once again presses or sets the pace. Can Romans spring another upset?
Restoring Hope [ML 4-1 – (0) – Giant’s Causeway – Baffert/Prat – 3: 1-1-1 - $46,880] It’s been musical chairs for the Bob Baffert runners this week. When McKinzie was withdrawn from the Santa Anita Derby, Justify switched derbys from the Arkansas to the Santa Anita. Solomini changed from the Wood to Arkansas, and that shifted Restoring Hope out of Santa Anita and to the Wood. The son of Giant’s Causeway was going to run in the Sunland Derby on March 25 but did not make the field based on earnings.
Restoring Hope is a horse that has been getting a lot of attention recently. He broke his maiden at Santa Anita in the beginning of February after two tries as a 2-year-old. His win came in one of those restricted races with the unique condition, “Restricted to homebreds and horses sold at auction for $100,000 or less.” He got in as a homebred of owners Gary and Mary West. He has pressed the pace in his last two starts. Not sure what to make of him on the Aqueduct racetrack, but no doubt the Baffert runner will get bet down. This Baffert runner will get bet.
Vino Rosso [ML 9-2 – (7) – Curlin – Pletcher/Velazquez – 4: 2-0-1 - $85,500] Vino Rosso is a Todd Pletcher trainee taking his last shot at making the Derby field after disappointing a bit on the road to the Churchill Downs. After winning his first two starts, this $410,000 yearling purchase was expected to keep winning at Tampa Downs. Instead, a third in the Sam F Davis and a fourth in the Tampa Derby was not quite up to what fans expect from the Pletcher barn. Co-owner Mike Repole already has Noble Indy in the field on the first Saturday in May. Can’t be overlooked.
Summary: Enticed appears to be a step above the rest of the field. However, he does not need to be at 100% for this race. Godolphin very much wants to win their first Kentucky Derby way more than the Wood Memorial, so there is a chance that Enticed might be vulnerable. Combined with a very short price on the board, it is prudent to play against him to win.Restoring Hope from the Baffert barn is going to get a lot of support, so I guess it’s possible that Vino Rosso gets overlooked a bit as the third choice. I also like King Zachary to continue on well from his maiden score.
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