Kentucky Derby trail 2018: UAE Derby odds and analysis

With the Group 2, $2 million UAE Derby run Saturday at a distance of 1 3/16 miles on the dirt at Dubai's Meydan Racecourse, the race serves as a major stop on the 2018 Kentucky Derby trail offering points [100-40-20-10] to the Top 4 finishers.

European superstar trainer Aidan O’Brien sends three horses into the race, each of them well-bred sons of Scat Daddy who prepped for the UAE Derby by finishing one-two-three in the Patton Stakes on the synthetic racing surface at Ireland's Dundalk Stadium.

The UAE Derby is a carded as Race 4 of 9 on Saturday's blockbuster Dubai World Cup card with post time scheduled for 9:30 a.m. ET.

Here is the field of nine with morning line odds by Horse Racing Nation. There is no on-track betting in Dubai, but wagering will open through American ADWs.

Rayya (USA) [ML – 20-1 – Tiz Wonderful – D. Watson/P. Hobbs – 4: 2-2-0 - $244,507] This talented, Meydan-based filly won the UAE Oaks last time out, which earned her 50 qualifying points for the Kentucky Oaks. After the race, she is scheduled to board a plane for California to be under the care of trainer Bob Baffert with an eye on running at Churchill Downs in the Oaks. “It’s going to be a hard race on Saturday and she still needs to mature,” said trainer Doug Watson. “The schedule she’s kept from the time she broke her maiden World Cup night, you wouldn’t see many mares going in (to the Oaks) from halfway around the world with that kind of schedule.”

Rayya has received check in all four of her races at Meydan with narrow loses in two of them. Watson said she will run from off the pace in this race against the boys. Talented filly faces the boys for the first time.

Ruggero (JPN) [ML – 20-1 – Kinshasa no Kiseki (AUS) – Y. Shikato/C. Lemaire – 5: 2-0-2 - $220,861] Most recently Ruggero finished third in the Hyacinth Stakes, which is the final race in the Japan Road to the Kentucky Derby, and he is currently in second position to qualify via that road. In the Hyacinth he finished well behind Taiki Ferveur, the other Japanese runner in this race. To help handicap the two Japanese runners, below is a video of the Hyacinth. Ruggero is No. 9 and runs near the rail down the stretch, while No. 2 Taiki Ferveur makes a big closing run down the middle of the track. Please note the nasty kick back that the horses face. Remember that Lani, a Japanese runner won the 2016 UAE Derby and went on to finish ninth in the Derby, fifth in the Preakness, and third in the Belmont Stakes. Not the top runner from Japan.

Reride (USA) [ML – 9-2 – Candy Ride – Asmussen/TBA – 5: 4-0-0 - $166,220] This Winchell Thoroughbreds homebred is 2-for-2 in 2018, with his most recent win coming in the Mine That Bird Derby last month at Sunland Park. He also won the Big Drama at Delta Downs in January. He has the very productive pattern of juvenile races that we have seen lead to 3-year-old success – a maiden special weight victory at Churchill Downs, followed by an allowance win at Keeneland, and then a start in the key Kentucky Jockey Club. Reride would likely have been one of the favorites in the Grade 3 Sunland Derby, but these connections enjoyed their trip to Dubai last year with another son of Candy Ride named Gun Runner. Reride was flattered when the second-place finisher in the Mine That Bird came back to win the Sunland Derby convincingly. Only American trained horse has a shot.

Mendelssohn (USA) [ML – 8-5 – Scat Daddy – A. O’Brien/R. Moore – 6: 3-1-0 - $761,137] Mendelssohn has garnered attention since he went through the Keeneland yearling sales ring in September of 2016, as the sale topper at $3 million. Bought by the Coolmore group, he had a pair of wins and a Group 1 second as a 2-year-old, including his victory in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf (G1), but as a half-brother to the great mare Beholder and the successful sire Into Mischief, he has a fabulous dirt pedigree. He started his 2018 campaign with a victory on the synthetic in the Patton Stakes at Dundalk, where he pulled away from the field in a competitive manner. The Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf has turned out several horses to find success on the Kentucky Derby trail – Catholic Boy, My Boy Jack, Flameaway and Snapper Sinclair. O’Brien, the trainer, said “we will learn more about Mendelssohn in Dubai, especially how well he stays as he is a strong traveler.” The likely favorite.

Below is the video of Mendelssohn’s win at Dundalk in which his stablemate Threeandfourpence finished a close second and Seahenge was a distant third.

Gold Town (GB) [ML – 2-1 – Street Cry – Appleby/Buick – 8: 4-0-1 - $232,221] This Godolphin homebred is on a three-race winning streak with the most recent coming in the UAE 2,000 Guineas (G3) on this Meydan Racecourse. In there, he unleashed an impressive stretch drive where his turn of foot quickly resulted in a 10½-length victory over the field of 15 as jockey William Buick coasted home in the final 100 meters. The son of Street Cry is perfect on the Meydan dirt having won his previous start in a trial for the Guineas in January. As a 2-year-old, he won his first start at Newbury in April and then his final run at Newmarket in August, all within his six-race juvenile season that included races on turf and synthetic. The one to be beat.

Seahenge (USA) [ML – 12-1 – Scat Daddy – A. O’Brien/D. O’Brien – 6: 2-0-2 - $156,295] Seahenge was another expensive Coolmore purchase going for $750,000 at the Keeneland September sale in 2016. He prepped for this race with a third-place finish in that Patton Stakes at Dundalk. “He didn’t help himself by being slowly away," O'Brien said. As a 2-year-old, he won twice including his first start at Naas and the Champagne Stakes (G2) at Doncaster. Well-bred and a Group 2 Stakes winner already.

Yulong Warrior (USA) [ML – 30-1 – Street Cry – S. Seemar/R. Mullen – 7: 2-3-1 - $188,581] He has found himself at Meydan this year after four tries to break his maiden in Europe as a juvenile. Taking to the racing on the dirt he has a maiden win and a victory in a minor stakes race. I agree with trainer Satish Seemar’s comment that, “He’s only a listed race winner. Now he’s competing with Group horses, but he’s never had the opportunity to take on the very best. His experience is limited and really needs a good break from the draw.” Steps up to Group stakes racing.

Taiki Ferveur (JPN) [ML – 15-1 – Furioso (JPN) – M. Makiura/J. Moreira – 7: 2-2-0 - $200,689] As you could see in the video of the Hyacinth, he made a very nice closing move to get second ahead of Ruggero. He is currently in the third position on the Japanese Road to the Kentucky Derby. Prior to that he finished ninth in a Group 3 race in Japan. “Being only three we were a little concerned about how he would handle the trip but he didn’t seem bothered at all,” said trainer Makiura. “He is doing great. We’ll breeze him on Wednesday I think.” Better of the two runners from Japan.

Threeandfourpence (USA) [ML – 15-1 – Scat Daddy – A. O’Brien/J. Heffernan – 4: 1-2-0 - $68,164] This homebred is a full brother to 2015 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf winner Hit it a Bomb and Group 1 winner Brave Anna. He made a strong run to finish about a length behind Mendelssohn in the Patton Stakes in his 2018 debut. His lone win came in his second start as a juvenile at Fairyhouse, a track that is new to me. O’Brien said, “He should improve from the run in Dundalk.” Well-bred colt from the powerful O’Brien barn.

Summary: Evaluating this field with only one American runner is difficult. I was once wisely told that when trying to rank European runners, be sure to pay attention to the tracks where they have run. The famous courses like Ascot, the Curragh, York and Newmarket are where the best horses run. Thus, good performances at the top tracks must be respected. That, of course, is no different than in America, but in Europe the information provided to bettors is different. Gold Town and Mendelssohn should rightly be the favorites and are the likeliest of winners, but I give Reride to solid chance for victory.