Kentucky Derby 2018 trail: Fountain of Youth odds, analysis

Historically, Gulfstream Park is the kind of track where experience on that racing surface is important. From the field of 10, six have had a previous start there.

The race is carded as the last of 14 with post time scheduled for 6:09 pm ET. Here's a look at the field with the morning line:

He Takes Charge [ML – 20-1 – Tapit – Casse/Gaffalione – 5: 1-1-1 - $45,990 – 0 points] This son of Tapit just broke his maiden on Feb. 10 at Gulfstream after four previous tries. In that race, he closed nicely going a mile and a sixteenth with fast early fractions providing a favorable setup. This is a horse that trainer Mark Casse has liked considering that he was a $625,000 purchase yearling. Still, this is a big jump in class for a high-strung horse that might be better as the year progresses. Recent classy maiden winner.

Free Drop Billy [ML – 9-2 – Union Rags – Romans/Albarado – 6: 2-3-0 - $495,220 – 14 points] In his only race of this year, Free Drop Billy ran into the fast developing Pletcher colt Audible in the Grade 2 Holy Bull. He was seven lengths ahead of his stablemate Tiz Mischief, so that made for a respectable 2018 debut. As a 2-year-old he won the Breeders’ Futurity (G1) finishing four in front of the future Risen Star (G2) winner, Bravazo. He has run in five straight graded stakes against the best horses on the Derby trail. No doubt he will be closing down the stretch. Romans runner has an excellent resume.

Peppered [ML – 30-1 – Tapizar – R. Baker/N. Juarez – 4: 1-1-1 - $57,446 – 0 points] Peppered put together a nice record while racing on the synthetic at Woodbine as a 2-year-old, including a second in the Grey Stakes (G3). He travelled south to run in the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) but sat at the back of the field the entire race. Was it the change in surface? He has been training on the dirt in Florida all winter. Can he handle the Gulfstream track?

Strike Power [ML – 4-1 - Speightstown – Hennig/L. Saez – 2: 2-0-0 - $147,960 – 0 points] Strike Power has a speedy 2-for-2 career record at Gulfstream Park. The son of Speightstown burst onto the scene when he won a 5 ½-furlong maiden race at Gulfstream by eight lengths while earning a 102 Beyer Speed Figure. He then took the Swale Stakes (G3) at seven furlongs. Both races were eye-catching and front-running. Now he stretches out in distance against some quality runners. Honestly, I expected to see Strike Power in the Gotham in New York. The one-turn mile seems like an obvious fit for this Mark Hennig runner to pick up a big chunk of Derby points while increasing the distance. Maybe, he’s good enough to take this field wire to wire? This speedster is stretching out.

Storm Runner [ML – 15-1 – Get Stormy – Romans/Rosario – 6: 2-2-1 - $103,340 – 0 points] Storm Runner is a versatile sort for Dale Romans with both wins on the dirt along with three turf starts. He broke his maiden in a race that came off the grass in his fourth start. Distance should not be an issue as he won his last start at Gulfstream going the 8.5 furlongs beating the talented Mississippi. He has yet to try stakes company, and this a very tough spot in which to try for the first time. Making his stakes debut.

Good Magic [ML – 7-5 - Curlin – Chad Brown/J. Ortiz – 3: 1-2-0 - $1,216,600 – 24 points] The Champion 2-year-old and Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner makes his long awaited 2018 debut. Trainer Chad Brown has already announced that the e Five Racing and Stonestreet runner will make only two starts on the Derby trail, and that his next race is likely to be in the Blue Grass Stakes (G2) at Keeneland. Having earned 24 qualifying points already, hitting the board should give this son of Curlin a spot in the Derby starting gate. Brown feels that Good Magic does not need to win this race because it is just a prep for the first Saturday in May. However, nobody is better at getting a horse ready off a layoff than the Eclipse Award winning trainer. Good Magic has been training in company with Economic Model, the recent winner of the Hal’s Hope (G3), and clockers have said that the champion looks to be ready to run. The field appears to have enough front-end speed to provide a great setup for his stalking move. He has never raced at Gulfstream, so I guess that could be a concern. The Champ should tough to beat.

Gotta Go [ML – 10-1 – Shanghai Bobby – Wilkes/Landeros – 5: 2-1-0 - $122,110 – 0 points] Gotta Go made his first start of the year in the Swale (G3) with a big closing run to get within 2 ¾ lengths of the free running Strike Power. As a juvenile he won the Street Sense at Churchill Downs defeating Bravazo, the recent Risen Star victor, who was third in that race. No doubt there will be plenty of speed to set things up for his late running style. This Ian Wilkes runner has some talent and could be hitting his best at the right time. Will get the right setup.

Marconi [ML – 8-1 - Tapit – Pletcher/Castellano – 3: 1-1-1 - $73,000 – 2 points] The big gray son of Tapit has been racing exclusively at Aqueduct, but with the Gotham running around one turn next weekend, this slow-starting and late-running colt shipped to Florida. Last out he finished third in the Withers behind Avery Island and Firenze Fire while making a steady move down the stretch. The $2 million yearling purchase, who is a half-brother of Mucho Macho Man, has been learning lessons with each start. It does seem like the faster Gulfstream racing surface and the shorter mile and a sixteenth distance of the Fountain of Youth are negative factors for this Todd Pletcher runner. Although you never know, Marconi might relish a racing surface that is not deep and tiring like Aqueduct. Not an ideal spot for this talented runner.

Machismo [ML – 15-1 – More Than Ready – Quartarolo/A. Jimenez – 4: 1-0-1 - $34,374 – 0 points] At the beginning of February, this Loooch Stable runner broke his maiden by more than 11 lengths while sprinting at Gulfstream Park. As a 2-year-old he had two starts at Saratoga, one on dirt and one on turf, the turf race was better. First back, this year he was third behind the highly regarded Magnum Moon. This will be a lot to ask jumping to Grade 1 company and going two-turns. Big step up in class.

Promises Fulfilled [ML – 20-1 - Shackleford – Romans/I. Ortiz, Jr. – 3: 2-0-1 - $89,200 – 2 points] This Dale Romans will be making his 2018 debut in a tough spot. This son of Shackleford is a speedy front runner who finished third in the Kentucky Jockey Club in late November. In the Fountain of Youth, he will have to deal with the pace of Strike Power off a three-month layoff. A likely pace pusher.

SUMMARY: Good Magic is going to be an odds-on favorite and rightfully so. All information indicates that Chad Brown will have him ready to run a big race on Saturday.

For the bettors, that limits wagering possibilities. The Fountain of Youth will no doubt be part of a late Pick 4 and Pick 5 along with the Rainbow Pick 6, which should have a carryover of more than $2 million. It would be fair to use Good Magic as a single in all of those horizontal wagers.

Looking at the race itself, I am going to stay away from Strike Power in the exotics. His price will be way too short when there are so many new challenges that he must face. Gotta Go is going to get a favorable pace setup and will come with good odds as the likely fourth or fifth choice. I will use him underneath Good Magic. Let’s look for a possible $20 payout and play a cold $20 exacta. That means bet just one combination: Good Magic with Gotta Go for a possible $200 return.

Good luck, and enjoy the Kentucky Derby trail.