Kentucky Derby trail 2018: El Camino Real odds and analysis
Saturday's $100,000 El Camino Real Derby will run at a distance of a mile and an eighth on the all weather racing surface at Golden Gate Fields. That makes this 2018 Kentucky Derby prep one of only two, along with the Jeff Ruby Steaks (formerly the Spiral Stakes) at Turfway Park, on a synthetic surface.
Presidents’ Weekend has the Derby preps transitioning from the 10-4-2-1 points scale, both in this race and Oaklawn Park's Grade 3 Southwest, to the step up to 50-20-10-5 in the Grade 2 Risen Star at Fair Grounds.
El Camino Real, which translated from Spanish means the Royal Road, is a 600-mile road that runs from the Mexico border to the Bay area and connects 21 Spanish missions.
The race is carded as the seventh out of nine with a scheduled post time of 6:57 p.m. ET. Here's a look at the field with morning line odds by Horse Racing Nation:
1) Paved [ML 5-1 – Quality Road – M. McCarthy/Van Dyke – 3: 1-0-2 - $44,640] This daughter of Quality Road needed three tries to break her maiden on the grass at Santa Anita in the beginning of January. Now trainer Michael McCarthy will take on the boys, jump up to stakes company and run on an artificial surface for the first time. That is a lot of new challenges for an inexperienced horse to face. Filly takes on the guys.
2)Blended Citizen [ML 6-1 – Proud Citizen – O’Neill/Frey – 6: 1-0-1 - $42,054] It took this Doug O’Neill runner five tries to break his maiden. He did not do well on the dirt and a switch to the grass produced a fast mile victory on the Del Mar turf. Most recently, Blended Citizen ran fourth in the Eddie Logan on grass at Santa Anita. O’Neill is never afraid to take a shot his horses. Doug O’Neill runner.
3) Could Be the One [ML 20-1 – Bedford Falls – Steiner/Antongeorgi – 6: 2-0-2 - $66,980] This son of Bedford Falls, who is by Forestry, has a record of 8: 4-3-0 at Golden Gate. His last two races were sprinting allowance victories. As a matter of fact, he has never raced around two turns. The current connections claimed him from a $12,500 maiden race. Has landed in a tough spot.
4) Choo Choo [ML 9-5 – English Channel – Hollendorfer/JJ Hernandez – 9: 4-3-0 - $115,188] From the Golden Gate Fields barn of Hall of Fame trainer Jerry Hollendorfer, this Calumet Farms home-bred won the California Derby, which is the local prep for this race. For the most part he has been racing on the grass in Southern California. That stalking victory on the Tapeta racing surface makes him the horse to beat. Stakes win on the Tapeta.
5) City Plan [ML 5-2 – Street Sense – Harty/T. Conner – 5: 2-0-0 - $74,690] This Godolphin home-bred has been training at the Santa Anita barn of Eoin Harty. He broke his maiden at Los Alamitos and then was soundly defeated in the Grade 1 Frontrunner behind Bolt d’Oro. He ended his juvenile season with a win at Golden Gate in the Gold Rush going a mile. That victory makes him a serious contender to win his return trip to the Bay area track. Has a stakes victory at Golden Gate.
6) Calexman [ML 20-1 – Midshipman – Cerin/Maldonado – 3: 1-0-0 - $32,528] This Vladimir Cerin trainee began his career with ninth-place finish on Woodbine’s Tapeta track. He got his only win on grass at Del Mar in November and has been off since then. A lot to ask off a layoff.
7) Epical [ML 15-1 – Uncle Mo – Cassiday/Pereira – 1: 1-0-0 - $32,400] This son of Uncle Mo just broke his maiden on the Santa Anita turf course three weeks ago. His dam is a non-winner that has produced winners with four of her six foals. Question marks for this one about the change in racing surface and the move up to stakes company. First try on Tapeta.
8) Unlawful Act [ML 20-1 – Mineshaft – Troy/Herrera – 6: 2-0-1 - $20,670] Since switching to the Golden Gate course, this son of Mineshaft has become a winner of two straight races going a distance of ground. However, the first victory came in a $20,000 maiden claiming race in a field of six and that indicates that the jump to this big race will be a tough one. Big step-up.
9) Mugaritz [ML 8-1 – Dialed In – Wong/M. Gutierrez – 5: 2-1-0 - $45,485] This son of Dialed In has the home track advantage with two wins and a second in his last three starts at Golden Gate. Most recently he was second just a 1 ¾ lengths behind in the California Derby. I like that this horse is running out of his own stall; however, he got his first win in a $20,000 maiden claimer. Home track advantage.
Summary: The El Camino Real Derby is a tough race for me to handicap because only a few of the horses have experience on the Tapeta racing surface with the rest of the field coming from turf races in the more competitive Southern California circuit.
Thus, I would have to lean more on the horses that have already found success at Golden Gate, especially since the others have only a maiden win to their credit. Hollendorfer is the master of Golden Gate and Choo Choo just had a nice win in the California Derby, making him clearly the horse to beat. I would use him in the exacta with Blended Citizen who ran well in a Santa Anita turf stake and City Plan, the Godolphin homebred.