Kentucky Derby 2018 trail: Withers Stakes odds and analysis

Saturday's Grade 3, $250,000 Withers Stakes marks Avery Island’s return to the 2018 Kentucky Derby trail for trainer Kiaran McLaughlin, a big-name conditioner looking for his first win in the Run for the Roses.

With the likes of Firenze Fire and Marconi also in the field, the Withers has drawn a small, but higher quality group that will compete for the 17 Derby qualifying points [10-4-2-1].

The race is carded as the eighth out of nine with a scheduled post time of 4:35 p.m. ET. Here is a look at the field with morning line odds by Horse Racing Nation.

Firenze Fire [ML 5-2 – Poseidon’s Warrior – Ja. Servis/McCarthy – 6: 4-0-0 - $539,100] With 20 Kentucky Derby points already secure, a victory in the Withers could very well secure a spot in the starting gate for the big one on the first Saturday in May. This field will provide the recent Jerome Stakes winner with much tougher competition. He got the victory in that race despite the complete lack of early pace when he ground out a half-length win over the slow, muddy track. In his favor, it does appear that there are horses that like to run on or near the lead. Firenze Fire comes into this race with the most money earned, the most Derby points, and the most wins. Should get a better set-up.

Marconi [ML 4-1 – Tapit - Pletcher/Franco – 2: 1-1-0 - $48,000] Marconi had an impressive resume before he even set foot on a racetrack. The son of Tapit is a half brother of Mucho Macho Man and sold for $2 million as a yearling at the Keeneland September 2016 sale. In an unusual way, Marconi made his career debut in November, going a mile and an eighth and finished second. He came right back at nine furlongs to break his maiden a month later. Trainer Todd Pletcher has noted that Marconi needs as much distance as possible, thus the Withers on the Aqueduct main track is a perfect fit. It is also worth considering that the March Derby prep in New York is the Gotham, and that one will be run as a one-turn mile. This will be a serious test for the gray colt. The final time and the speed figures for his two races were slow, while this field has some talented runners. Big test for this fancy pedigree.

Bal Harbour [ML 8-1 – First Samurai - Pletcher/Carmouche – 7: 3-2-0 - $155,675] Bal Harbour is a veteran of five consecutive stakes races, with the most recent one the competitive Mucho Macho Man at Gulfstream Park. There, he finished a respectable second between two highly regarded 3-year-olds in Mask and Dak Attack. Before that, Bal Harbour won the Smooth Air, also at Gulfstream, and the Sapling at Monmouth. He has been successful with a stalking running style that should also be effective in here. Trifecta contender.
 

Avery Island [ML 2-1 – Street Sense - McLaughlin/Bravo – 4: 2-1-0 - $215,332] Avery Island was bred to go long by Godolphin with Street Sense as the sire and the dam an A. P. Indy mare. In his maiden victory and then in the Nashua (G2) he ran on the lead. In December, in the Remsen (G2), he did not get to the lead and finished second to Catholic Boy. In defeat, he did pick up four Derby points. Since then he has been training at Palm Meadows in the Florida for McLaughlin. It will be interesting to see what kind of strategy's used in the Withers, as the most talented horses in the field will be coming from off the pace, but there will be others vying for the early lead. One of the contenders.

Coltandmississippi [ML 15-1 – Pioneerof the Nile - Pletcher/J. Alvarado – 5: 2-0-1 - $90,637] The third Pletcher runner in the field, he has already taken on the appearance of a horse that likes to race. Since his debut victory at Saratoga in August, Coltandmississippi has run basically every month. He had a good showing in the Jerome when he finished third behind the top two choices that day, picking up two Derby qualifying points. His last two races were on wet tracks, and he might actually prefer a fast track. Still, this is no easy spot for him, so a top three finish would be appreciated. A solid competitor.
 

California Night [ML 20-1 – Midnight Lute - Maker/R. Hernandez – 1: 1-0-0 - $36,000] SCRATCHED This son of Midnight Lute was a bargain basement purchase at the Fasig-Tipton July 2016 yearling sale for only $10,000 by Three Diamonds Farm. They were quickly rewarded when he won at first asking at Aqueduct in December going 6 1/2 furlongs. He was well supported at the windows going into that race, which he won leading gate-to-wire. Even so, this race will provide a very serious test of class and stamina. A big step up in class.

Summary: Firenze Fire looks for his third career graded stakes victory in the Withers. He may be easy to dismiss after his seemingly unimpressive win in the Jerome. However, that victory was on a very slow track and there was no early pace. He should get a more favorable setup for his closing move here. Avery Island may ultimately be more talented and could be one of the horses providing the pace, but he is coming off of a three-month layoff and might be the favorite. I give the edge to Firenze Fire.

If the Withers exacta prices for Firenze Fire with Avery Island and Marconi are more than $15, they may be worth betting.