Kentucky Derby Trail 2018: Smarty Jones odds and analysis

The $150,000 Smarty Jones Stakes, which will be run as a two-turn mile this Monday, kicks off the 2018 Kentucky Derby trail at Oaklawn Park. The Smarty Jones is followed on Feb. 19 by the Southwest (G3), on March 17 by the Rebel (G2) and concludes April 14 with the the $1,000,000 Arkansas Derby. American Pharoah, the 2015 Triple Crown winner, used the Arkansas trail to prep for the Derby.

The Smarty Jones offers Derby qualifying points [10-4-2-1] to the top four finishers and is scheduled to be run as Race 8 of 9 with post time scheduled for 5:42 p.m. ET.

Here is the field with morning line odds:

Combatant [(ML 2-1) – Scat Daddy – Asmussen/Santana Jr. – 3: 1-1-0 - $118,550] The Steve Asmussen barn is going great as of late, and Combatant is one of several talented 3-year-olds in its care. He has a mile maiden win at Churchill and then a good second place in the Springboard Mile, just a couple of lengths behind Greyvitos and five lengths ahead of the rest of the 12-horse field. That finish earned him four Derby points. A big chance to win here.

2) Lone Rock [SCRATCH, ran Saturday (ML 12-1) – Majestic Warrior – Van Meter/G. Stevens – 5: 1-1-0 - $33,630] Lone Rock got his only win at Indiana Downs by 10 ½ lengths in a maiden special weight event. But that wire-to-wire romp was followed by a distant 10th-place finish in the Breeders’ Futurity (G1) at Keeneland. His most recent race resulted in a second-place effort in a first level allowance at Churchill Downs in November. Solid allowance horse.

 Tap Daddy [(ML 8-1) – Scat Daddy – Asmussen/Contreras – 4: 2-1-0 - $165,754] This son of Scat Daddy has two wins on the turf in a maiden and a first level allowance. Scat Daddys also run well on the dirt, and Tap Daddy was awarded second place in the Bourbon (G3) at Keeneland after that race was washed off the grass. Trainer Steve Asmussen will get a measure of just how good this Winchell Thoroughbreds runner is on the dirt. Has won twice on the grass.

Mourinho [(ML 3/2) – Super Saver – Baffert/Van Dyke – 3: 1-2-0 - $64,360] Bob Baffert scratched this one out of the Grade 3 Sham and avoided a conflict with his unbeaten stablemate, McKinzie. In his debut victory, he beat the highly regarded Instilled Regard and then went on to garner two second-place finishes, with one coming in the listed Speakeasy at Santa Anita and then in the Bob Hope behind the talented Greyvitos. This son of a Kentucky Derby winner likes to run on or near the lead. Baffert puts blinkers back on Mourinho after running without in the Bob Hope. He must go a distance of ground and two turns for the first time here. A major contender.

Arched Feather [(ML 30-1) – Arch – Frederick/Court – 3: 1-0-0 - $36,429] This son of Arch broke his maiden in his third try while overcoming trouble to get up going two turns at Churchill Downs. He was badly beaten in his prior two maiden races. We’ll find out a lot about this one in here. Probably in a tough spot.

6) Navistar [SCRATCH, travel problems (ML 5/2) – Union Rags – Pletcher/Velazquez – 2: 1-1-0 - $40,200] In his first career start, this Todd Pletcher trainee ran second behind Mask, who impressed so many with his easy win in the Mucho Macho Man Stakes last Saturday. Navistar came right back to break his maiden in a one-turn mile at Gulfstream Park. He sold for $90,000 as a yearling and then was pinhooked as a 2-year-old for $900,000 at Ocala in March, indicating that this son of Union Rags must be an outstanding physical specimen. This is a challenge, but this horse could be a big talent. Just might be talented enough.

Bode’s Maker [(ML 30-1) – Bodemeister – Milligan/Wethey Jr. – 5: 1-1-1 - $42,273] This Midwest runner comes to Oaklawn Park after two maiden tries at Prairie Meadows and then three starts at Remington Park. He got his initial win at Remington and followed it with a second place in a seven-furlong stake. However, Bode’s Maker could not compete at a higher level in the Springboard Mile.  Improvement will be necessary.

SUMMARY: The Smarty Jones ended up drawing a small but competitive field. Combatant and Mourinho have very good stakes experience. Combatant has already shown that he can handle the mile distance, while questions remain about the two turns for Mourinho. Navistar has also gone the mile and may just have too much talent for the others. Combatant would be my pick to challenge Navistar.

UPDATED SUMMARY: With the scratches of Lone Rock and Navistar, the Smarty Jones field is down to five. Now Mourinho is going to be an overwhelming favorite for Baffert, but Combatant has shot to win the race if two turns does not sit well with Mourinho. If Tap Daddy can perform as well as Snapper Sinclair did yesterday for Asmussen when going from turf to dirt in the Lecomte, then he could also be a contender.