Kentucky Derby Trail 2018: Jerome Stakes odds and analysis

Aqueduct's rescheduled $150,000 Jerome kicks off the New York division of 2018 Kentucky Derby trail on Saturday and managed to hold on to its top runners despite postponed due to weather from Jan. 1. Even though the race has lost its Grade 3 status, it still offers qualifying points [10-4-2-1] for the Run for the Roses.

A recent combination of snow and extreme cold canceled racing at Aqueduct for several days. During that time, Belmont Park also closed for training, which meant that horses were limited to jogging the shedrow for about a week.

This time, the forecast calls for unseasonably warm temperatures in the 50s. It is supposed to rain all day on Friday, so a wet track is a distinct possibility.

The Jerome drew a field of eight headed by the Grade 1 Champagne Stakes winner, Firenze Fire. The Champagne turned into a key race on the Road to Derby after the runner-up Good Magic won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and the third-place finisher Enticed was victorious in the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) at Churchill Downs.

Run this year as a one-turn mile on the newly renovated Aqueduct main track, the race is carded as the eighth out of nine with a scheduled posttime of 3:50 p.m. ET.

Here's a look at the field with the NYRA morning line odds.

 Coltandmississippi [(ML 6-1) Pioneerof the Nile - Pletcher/T. McCarthy – 4: 2-0-0 - $75,637] This $400,000 Keeneland yearling purchase won his first start at Saratoga going seven furlongs, but since then he has been a bit of an in and outer. In two stakes races he has finished well out of the money, but he also won a first level allowance race at Gulfstream Park West in October. Bottom line with this Todd Pletcher runner is that his two wins were not particularly fast with Beyer Speed Figures of 60 and 73/ As a result he will run with blinkers for the first time. Scratched from the Mucho Macho Man at Gulfstream last weekend, he has certainly found a less talented field in the Jerome. Trying stakes company again.

Seven Trumpets [(ML – 3-1) – Morning Line – Romans/Paco Lopez - 3: 2-0-0 - $74,400] Seven Trumpets comes from the barn of Dale Romans, which is loaded with talented youngsters. He sold as a yearling for $45,000 and then as a 2-year-old for $205,000 when purchased by West Point Thoroughbreds at Ocala last April. In the fall at Churchill Downs, he broke his maiden and followed that up with an allowance score. Both were at 6 ½ furlongs. Last year, Romans brought J Boys Echo to Aqueduct to earn Derby points. Seven Trumpets should be running at the end. Main threat to the favorite.

Regalian [(ML – 20-1) – Fast Bullet – C. Englehart/L. Reyes – 3: 1-0-0 - $30,315] Regalian was bred by Zayat Stables, but was claimed from them for $50,000 in his second start. New trainer Chris Englehart got the maiden victory in his first try going a mile in a claimer at Aqueduct. Regelian drew clear by three lengths while factoring in the early pace. It’s a big jump from the maiden claiming ranks to the Kentucky Derby trail. Maiden claimer last race.

Factor This [(ML 12-1) – The Factor – Barker/Dylan Davis – 7: 1-2-0 - $63,402] It took this son of The Factor seven tries to break his maiden, which he finally did at Aqueduct when he bested a field of six in a mile maiden special weight. It is asking a lot for him to be competitive in this field. Asking too much.

Smooth B [(ML - 30-1) – Weigelia – Reid Jr./Rocco Jr. – 7: 2-1-0 - $91,720] This Reid runner has the most experience in the field, including three tries in stakes company. He raced at four different tracks with a maiden victory at Parx and an allowance score at Laurel going a mile. He ran against some quality horses in the Sapling and the Futurity at Belmont, finishing fifth in both of those stakes. His experience will be helpful against a lot of the field. Has stakes experience.

Old Time Revival [(ML - 10-1) – Brethren – Decker/Junior Alvarado - 3: 1-0-1 - $28,400] This Florida-bred will be shipping up from Laurel, where he ran all three of his races. He beat a field of six to win a seven-furlong maiden special weight by 4 ¾ lengths in a very average time of 1:24 and change. Stakes company will be a challenge for this one. A big class challenge.

Firenze Fire [(ML – 3-5) - Poseidon’s Warrior – Jason Servis/Franco – 5: 3-0-0 - $449,100] This Florida-bred enters the Jerome as the only horse with a stakes victory of any kind. He has the most wins, the most money earned and 10 Kentucky Derby qualifying points. Firenze Fire got his Derby points with the aforementioned victory in the Champagne going a one-turn mile at Belmont in October. He disappointed in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile with a distant seventh-place finish, but trainer Jason Servis said that the colt did not ship well to California and was a bit under the weather when he arrived at Del Mar. Firenze Fire had his training interrupted by the frigid temperatures at Belmont Park. Servis is committed to the New York road to the Derby. Deserving favorite.

Glennwood [(ML 50-1) – Paynter – Wilkinson/Carmouche – 3: 1-0-1 - $13,407] This son of Paynter is from the same Kentucky allowance race as Seven Trumpets. Glennwood finished seventh at 77-1 while Seven Trumpets was the victor. The current connections claimed Glennwood out of his maiden win for a mere $20,000 from Zayat Stables. Here he puts blinkers on for the first time. Outclassed.
 

SUMMARY – Firenze Fire towers over most of this field, and anything but a victory in the Jerome would probably be a disappointment for his connections. Seven Trumpets looms as the favorite’s main competition. If this colt makes another step up he could threaten for a win. Those two could tangle down the long Aqueduct stretch while leaving the rest of the field far behind.