The top 25 East Coast horses vying for the Kentucky Derby

Jackie’s Warrior, Brooklyn Strong, and Capo Kane have won East Coast points preps for the 2021 Kentucky Derby.

But it was Mutaasabeq’s victory Saturday in the Mucho Macho Man at Gulfstream Park – not a points race – that had the most impact on the second edition of HRN’s Derby Scouting Report for the East Coast.

This division of the Derby trail includes prep races that will be run in New York and Florida. That means stakes at Aqueduct, Gulfstream and Tampa Bay Downs. Already, the Champagne (G1) was won by Jackie’s Warrior, the Remsen by Brooklyn Strong, and the Jerome won Friday by Capo Kane.

Here are where the current contenders stand:

(Nevada odds - sire – trainer – owner - Derby points)

The leader

Mutasaabeq (50-1 – Into Mischief – T. Pletcher – Shadwell Stable - 0) – Mutasaabeq returned to racing on the dirt to win the Mucho Macho Man at Gulfstream Park. Although the early January stake is not a Kentucky Derby points race, it serves as a prep for the three official Derby preps that begin on Jan. 30 at the Florida track. The $425,000 yearling purchase broke alertly and took up a pace-pressing position in the one-turn mile. He took the lead exiting the final turn and had more down the stretch to win by 1 1/2 lengths in a final time of 1:35.98, which earned an 87 Beyer Speed Figure.

The versatile son of Into Mischief already has a turf victory to his credit, having won the Bourbon (G2) going two turns at Keeneland last year. Trainer Todd Pletcher said a start in the Holy Bull (G2) on Jan. 30 at Gulfstream is likely.

First tier

These contenders are stakes winners and/or have already earned Derby qualifying points. Listed in order by Derby points.

Jackie’s Warrior – (40-1 - Maclean’s Music - S. Asmussen – J. Kirk and Judy Robison - 12) With three graded stakes wins to his credit — including the Champagne (G1) which earned him 10 Derby points — Jackie’s Warrior has the best overall record in this East Coast report. However, his fourth-place finish in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) exposed distance limitations that could hamper his progress on the Derby trail. Steve Asmussen has him back in training at Fair Grounds.

Brooklyn Strong (80-1 - Wicked Strong – D. Velazquez – Mark Schwartz -10) – The New York-bred Brooklyn Strong scored 10 points on the Kentucky Derby trail in the Remsen, handling the nine-furlong distance on the trying Aqueduct surface by a neck with a closing move to run down the pacesetter. The win earned a 93 Beyer, which was one of the top 2-year-old figures of last year. Brooklyn Strong has not gotten back to serious training since the Remsen.

Capo Kane (70-1 – Street Sense – Bing Cherry Racing, L. Liberto - H. Wyner - 10) – Trainer Harold Wyner got his first stake victory when Capo Kane shipped to New York from Parx to win the Jerome by more than six lengths at just shy of 7-1, earning an 84 Beyer. The son of Street Sense went to auction four times, most recently selling for $26,000 as a 2-year-old. Former jockey Wyner, who also bought the 2020 Haskell runner-up Ny Traffic last year and trained him in his first four starts, said the nine-furlong Withers (G3) is next for Capo Kane.

Highly Motivated (40-1 - Into Mischief – C. Brown – Klaravich Stables, LLC – 0) Improvement in all three starts makes Highly Motivated a talented Derby contender. He was second in his debut at Saratoga to a stablemate and then beat a firster from the barn of Todd Pletcher to break his maiden. His victory in the Nyquist at Keeneland earned a 96 Beyer. He has not returned to breezing since the win in Kentucky.

Never Surprised – (100-1 - Constitution – Repole Stable - T. Pletcher - 0) This $200,000 yearling was a winner at first asking at Aqueduct on the turf and came back three weeks later to score in the Central Park at the Big A going a 1 1/16 miles, also on the grass, while racing on the front end. He has posted three works in Florida for Pletcher.

Second tier

Eagle Orb – (120-1 - Orb – R. Rodriguez – E. V. Racing Stable – 4) After ending his 2-year-old campaign with a win in the Notebook for New York-breds, Eagle Orb ran second in the Jerome on the Derby trail some six-lengths behind the runaway winner Capo Kane. The Rudy Rodriguez runner picked up four qualifying points for that place effort.

Reinvestment Risk (100-1 - Upstart – C. Brown – Klaravich Stables, Inc. - 4) This $240,000 2-year-old purchase was an impressive first-out winner at Saratoga, earning a 90 Beyer. Since then, trainer Chad Brown sent him out in three Grade 1s, where he was second in the Hopeful and the Champagne behind Jackie’s Warrior and then was 10th in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. He has not posted an official workout since his last race.

Ten for Ten (75-1 - Frosted – S. McGaughey – Courtlandt Farms - 4) – The $410,000 yearling purchase has three second-place finishes in his record. Two of them came in front-running efforts at Aqueduct in the Nashua and then in the Remsen on the Derby trail. He just posted a recent breeze for Shug McGaughey at Payson Park in Florida.

Known Agenda (125-1 - Curlin – T. Pletcher – St. Elias Stable - 2) This home-bred son of Curlin is out of a graded-stakes winning mare. He broke his maiden in his second try for Pletcher at Aqueduct and came right back to run third in the Remsen, earning two Derby points. He is back in training at Palm Beach Downs for Pletcher.

Pickin’ Time – (175-1 - Stay Thirsty – K. Breen – John Bowers Jr. - 1) The New Jersey-bred opted for a start in the Mucho Macho Man after finishing fourth on a sloppy track in the Remsen (G3). After a rough break, Pickin Time was last early against a big field at Gulfstream. As a result, he had to rush up to get into contention, and the best he could do is another fourth-place finish.

Ones to watch

These 3-year-olds have impressive maiden victories and may be preparing to start in Kentucky Derby prep races.

Amount – (60-1 – Curlin – T. Pletcher – Repole Stable and St. Elias Stable) This Todd Pletcher trainee won as a first-time starter on Dec. 26 at Gulfstream Park as the 3-2 favorite. He got bumped at the start and came away flat-footed but still won the seven-furlong race by almost six lengths. He sold for a relative bargain of $110,000 as a 2-year-old out of a Claiborne Farms mare who produced Mucho, second in the Hopeful (G2), and Size, winner of the Iowa Oaks (G3).

By George – (125-1 – Into Mischief – C. Clement – Jump Sucker Stable, Claiborne Farm, Adele Dilschneider) This $190,000 yearling purchase was a debut winner for Christophe Clement at Aqueduct on Dec. 19. It was a front-end victory by more than five-lengths going six furlongs that earned an 80 Beyer. The field of eight included two promising horses from the Pletcher barn.

Greatest Honour – (45-1 – Tapit – S. McGaughey - Courtlandt Farms) This home-bred needed to go two turns to break his maiden in his fourth try at Gulfstream on Dec. 26. He beat a field of nine that included a $725,000 Pletcher horse who was second. Greatest Honour was the 1-2 favorite and rallied from off the pace to win by 1 1/2 lengths while earning an 83 Beyer. His dam, Tiffany’s Honour, sold for $2.2 million in foal to Medaglia d’Oro a few months after she gave birth to Greatest Honour.

Likeable (130-1 - Frosted – T. Pletcher – Repole Stable, St. Elias Stable and Stonestreet Stables) Stonestreet is the breeder of Likeable and they decided to keep a piece of this colt after he sold for $350,000 as a yearling. He broke his maiden by almost nine lengths at Belmont in his second start, which prompted Pletcher to give this guy a shot in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, where he finished near the back of the field. He is already back in training in Florida.

Manor House (150-1 – Upstart – M. Stidham – Newtown Anner Stud Farm) In his debut at Laurel Park on Dec. 12, the son of Upstart went straight to the lead and did not look back while winning the mile maiden special weight by more than 12 lengths. His dam has produced four to win from five to start, including one stakes winner at Gulfstream Park. He has returned to the work tab at Fair Grounds for trainer Michael Stidham.

Nicky the Vest (N/A – Runhappy – J. Thomas – R. LaPenta) – This New York-bred was a debut winner for Jonathan Thomas in a one-turn mile at Aqueduct by 4 3/4 lengths on Dec. 18. The $110,000 yearling purchase was the only first-time starter in a full field of state-breds and won on the lead at odds of 5.50-1.

Olympiad (50-1 - Speightstown – B. Mott – Grandview Equine, Cheyenne Stables and LNJ Foxwoods) Bill Mott rarely wins with first-time starters, so it was no surprise that this $700,000 yearling purchase would run third in his debut, although it was behind Reinvestment Risk at Saratoga. He returned as the favorite to win easily in his next start going seven furlongs on closing weekend at the Spa. He has two official breezes at Mott’s Payson Park Florida base.

Overtook (150-1 – Curlin – T. Pletcher – Repole Stable, St. Elias Stable, Coolmore) - This $1 million yearling purchase needed three tries to break his maiden, which he did at Aqueduct on Dec. 20. The two-length victory was a late-running effort going a one-turn mile against a field of nine at odds of 5.90-1 as the fifth choice in a competitive field. His dam Got Lucky is a Grade 1 winner of almost $1 million on the track.

Prime Factor (22-1 - Quality Road - T. Pletcher – CHC and WinStar) This $900,000 yearling purchase prepped for his Gulfstream Park debut at Todd Pletcher’s Florida base at Palm Beach Downs training center. He was sent off at odds of 2.10-1 and he won the six-furlong maiden special weight by almost nine lengths. The dam is an unraced daughter of Bernardini who has produced three winners from three to start. He has two works at Pletcher’s winter base at Palm Beach Downs since his Dec. 12 victory.

Prisoner (125-1 - Violence – T. Pletcher – Repole Stable) This son of Violence sold three times at auction, most recently as a 2-year-old in March for $175,000. He made an early debut in June at Belmont and won by almost five lengths, but he has not raced or had an official work since then.

Risk Taking (120-1 - Medaglia d’ Oro – C. Brown – Klaravich Stables) It took three tries for this $240,000 yearling purchase to break his maiden for Chad Brown. To his credit, he did it at Aqueduct going nine furlongs, which is a feather in his cap, and he earned a solid 81 Beyer. He recently recorded at breeze at Belmont Park after his Dec. 13 win.

Speaker’s Corner (65-1 - Street Sense – B. Mott – Godolphin) Much of what was said about Olympiad applies to Speaker’s Corner. He was third in his debut and then won his next start. This Godolphin home-bred was an odds-on favorite who broke slowly in his first race and then came back at Belmont to beat Caddo River, who would become an impressive maiden winner. Speaker’s Corner has not posted a workout since Nov. 25.

Witsel – (75-1 - Nyquist – C. Munoz – CM Thoroughbreds) At Tampa Bay Downs on Dec. 9, this son of Nyquist was a first-out winner by 13 3/4 lengths going six furlongs, earning a noteworthy 85 Beyer. His dam placed in a stakes race at Aqueduct as a 3-year-old while earning $152,000 and has produced three winners from four to make it to the track. He has not had an official work since his victory.

Wolfie’s Dynaghost (n/a - Ghostzapper – T. Albertrani – Woodslane Farm) – This home-bred is a half-brother to the millionaire turf star Sadler’s Joy. He was a rare debut winner from Albertrani when he stalked the early pace and drew off to win a seven-furlong maiden special weight at Aqueduct. Albertrani noted that he would be sent to Florida to train for a try on the road to the Kentucky Derby. There have been no breezes recorded for him since that Nov. 14 maiden breaker.

East Coast division preps

• Holy Bull (G2) – Gulfstream Park – Jan. 30 (10-4-2-1)

• Withers (G3) – Aqueduct – Feb. 6 (10-4-2-1)

• Sam F. Davis (G3) – Tampa Bay Downs – Feb. 6 (10-4-2-1)

• Fountain of Youth (G2) – Gulfstream Park – Feb. 27 (50-20-10-5)

• Gotham (G3) – Aqueduct – March 6 (50-20-10-5)

• Tampa Bay Derby (G2) – Tampa Bay Downs - March 6 (50-20-10-5)

• Florida Derby (G1) – Gulfstream Park – March 27 (100-40-20-10)

• Wood Memorial (G2) – Aqueduct – April 3 (100-40-20-10)