Kentucky Derby 2020 Scouting Report: East Coast Division III

The East Coast Division of the 2020 Kentucky Derby trail includes prep races primarily be run in New York and Florida -- or stakes at Aqueduct, Gulfstream Park and Tampa Bay Downs.

Since the last Scouting Report, Tiz the Law won for the second time on the Derby trail in the Holy Bull (G3), Max Player upset Shotski in the Withers (G3) and Sole Volante handed Independence Hall his first defeat in the Sam F. Davis (G3). Modernist, who broke his maiden at Aqueduct and is trained by regular New York trainer Bill Mott, was the winner of a Risen Star Stakes (G2) division at Fair Grounds.

RELATED: Central Division Scouting Report

(Sire – Trainer – Owner - Derby points)

The Leader

Tiz the Law (Constitution – B. Tagg – Sackatoga Stable -22) – The New York-bred returned with an impressive victory in the Holy Bull that moved him to No. 1 in this region as well as the top spot overall in many polls and Kentucky Derby lists. His next start will be in the Florida Derby (G1) as Sackatoga Stables continues its journey to follow Funny Cide's 2003 Kentucky Derby victory. [current William Hill favorite with odds: 6-1*]

First Tier

Chance It (Currency Swap - S. Joseph Jr. – Shooting Stars Thoroughbred – 0) This Florida-bred now shows four wins at Gulfstream Park, which include the Jan. Mucho Macho Man against open company along with his two victories in the Florida Stallion Series. Trainer Saffie Joseph Jr. opted to give his horse some extra time and skipped the Holy Bull for Saturday's Fountain of Youth (G2) and its greater spread of Derby qualifying points. [current William Hill odds: 20-1]

Gouverneur Morris (Constitution – T. Pletcher – Team Valor and WinStar - 4) Todd Pletcher likes to send his less experienced Kentucky Derby contenders to Tampa Bay Downs to evaluate their potential before moving forward on the trail. This son of Constitution got the go ahead after a very fast victory in a two-turn allowance race on Feb. 14. Pletcher has not decided on the next start for Gouverneur Morris, but either the Florida Derby or Wood Memorial (G2) make sense. [current William Hill odds: 15-1]

Independence Hall (Constitution – M. Trombetta – Eclipse Thoroughbreds, Twin Creeks Racing, Kathleen and Robert Verrati - 14) – Independence Hall tasted defeat for the first time in the Sam F. Davis in his fourth start when he tended to a fast pace and was then run down by the closing move of Sole Volante. To his credit, the Michael Trombetta runner battled down the stretch to be a clear second as the pace setters faded to last. [current William Hill odds: 12-1]

Max Player (Honor Code – L. Rice – George Hall - 10) Max Player moved from a maiden victory in his second start at Parx Racing to the Withers, where he got an ideal setup and closed from last to go right by the favorite, Shotski. Right after the win, trainer Linda Rice said that the next start for Max Player would be in the Wood Memorial, and Max Player returned to the work tab last week on schedule. [current William Hill odds: 60-1]

Modernist (Uncle Mo – B. Mott – Pam and Marty Wygod - 50) Owned and bred by the Wygod Family, Modernist became a Derby trail winner when he took the second division of the Risen Star while helping set the pace. He now owns two nine-furlong wins in a row following his maiden score at Aqueduct in January and is likely in the Derby field on points. [current William Hill odds: 40-1]

Ny Traffic (Cross Traffic – S. Joseph Jr. – John Fanelli, Cash is King, and LC Racing - 10) This New York-bred made his debut on the Derby trail in the second division of the Risen Star, setting the early pace battling head to head with the eventual winner Modernist. He faded to third but earned another prep try in a spot still to be determined. [current William Hill odds: 75-1]

Shotski (Blame – J. O’Dwyer – Wachtel Stable, Gary Barber, Pantofel Stable, and Mike Carty - 14) After a front-running victory in the Remsen (G2), trainer Jeremiah O’Dwyer sent him right back to Aqueduct in the Withers. He was pressured on the lead and was beaten by a late closing Max Player. He is expected to run next in Florida in the Fountain of Youth and will get John Velazquez as the rider. [current William Hill odds: 65-1]

Sole Volante (Karkontie – P. Biancone – Reeves Thoroughbred, Andie Biancone, Limelight Stables - 10) Sole Volante began his career with two wins on the turf as a 2-year-old. Trainer Patrick Biancone decided to give him a try on the dirt in the Mucho Macho Man with an encouraging third-place finish. In his first official start on the Derby trail, Sole Volante got a great pace setup when the favorite in the Sam F. Davis battled for the lead. Behind more than 15 lengths after a half mile, he passed the leaders in the final turn like they were standing still and drew off to win by more than two lengths. [current William Hill odds: 12-1]

Structor (Palace Malice – C. Brown – Jeff Drown, Don Rachel - 0) The winner of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf became a Derby contender immediately after the race when trainer Chad Brown said his next start would come in a prep race for the Run for the Roses. The son of Palace Malice has a perfect 3-for-3 record on the grass but, according to the Daily Racing Form, will miss an expected start in the Fountain of Youth with plans still to be determined into the spring. [current William Hill odds: N/A]

Three Technique (Mr Speaker - J. Englehart – August Dawn Farm - 4) Twice a winner in New York, Three Technique made his 3-year-old debut last month in the Smarty Jones Stakes over a sloppy Oaklawn Park track. Owned by NFL Hall of Famer Bill Parcells, he was sent off as the 2-1 favorite. While racing from a stalking position, Three Technique was unable to overtake Gold Street who was on that rivals' way to a third straight victory on a wet track. The Jeremiah Englehart trainee is expected to make his next start in the Rebel (G2) on March 14. [current William Hill odds: 25-1]

Second Tier

Ajaaweed (Curlin – K. McLaughlin – Shadwell Stable - 7) He made his 3-year-old debut in the Sam F. Davis after rallying for second in the Remsen in December behind Shotski. At Tampa, he was bet to be the second choice and tried to come from the back of the pack after spotting the field almost 20 lengths. Ajaaweed was no threat finishing a distant third. [current William Hill odds: 75-1]

Green Light Go (Hard Spun – J. Jerkins – Stronach Stables - 4) The winner of his first two starts including the Saratoga Special (G2), he ran second in the Champagne (G1). Jimmy Jerkens opted to start Green Light Go in the seven-furlong Swale Stakes (G3) and off that third-place finish will stretch the strapping colt around two turns in the Fountain of Youth. [current William Hill odds: 100-1]

Ones to Watch

Trainer Todd Pletcher has several recent maiden winners who may still be under consideration for a start on the Derby trail. They are as follows:

Candy Tycoon (Twirling Candy – T. Pletcher – Mathis Stables) This guy needed five tries to get his maiden win, but he did it impressively while showing speed on the front end going two turns. [current William Hill odds: 125-1]

Liam’s Point (Liam’s Map – T. Pletcher – St. Elias, Brereton Jones) The $185,000 yearling purchase had an eventful debut victory at Gulfstream Park when he raced greenly after his girth opened during the stretch run and flopped around underneath him. He idled down the stretch and his win got a low 71 Beyer Speed Figure for the seven furlongs. [current William Hill odds: NA]

Market Analysis (Honor Code – T. Pletcher – China Horse Club, WinStar Farm) At Gulfstream Park, he was a debut winner as the heavy favorite in a seven-furlong maiden special weight event. The $250,000 yearling returned to the work tab almost immediately with three breezes. [current William Hill odds: 100-1]

Money Moves (Candy Ride – T. Pletcher – Robert LaPenta, Bartolazzo Stable) This $975,000 2-year-old purchase won at first asking at Gulfstream Park on Feb. 15 as a heavy favorite going six furlongs when he stalked the early pace. [current William Hill odds: 125-1]

Palm Springs (Uncle Mo – T. Pletcher – China Horse Club, WinStar Farm) In his second career start on Feb. 1, the $1 million yearling won his maiden special weight at Gulfstream Park by a nose going a mile. Since then, he returned to the work tab with two breezes. [current William Hill odds: 80-1]

Silver Ratio (Liam’s Map – T. Pletcher – Paul Pompa Jr.) The $320,000 yearling purchase was a debut winner as the favorite at Gulfstream Park on Jan. 11. The half-length victory earned an 82 Beyer Speed Figure. He has now put together four workouts. [current William Hill odds: 125-1]

Texas Swing (Curlin – T. Pletcher – Harrell Ventures) This son of Curlin shipped to Tampa Bay Downs to find a two-turn maiden special weight. As the 6-5 favorite, he was a front-end winner on Feb. 8. Since then, he is back to serious training. [current William Hill odds: 125-1]

What follows is a list of 3-year-olds with impressive non-stakes victories who may appear in a Kentucky Derby prep race. With February almost complete, horses without recent workouts were removed from this section of the report.

Americanus (War Front - M. Hennig - Courtlandt Farms) - He has been solid outside of a distant eighth in Independence Hall's Nashua Stakes (G3) victory last November. On Saturday, he won a seven-furlong allowance at Gulfstream that should lead back to stakes.

Sonneman (Curlin – M. Hennig - Courtlandt Farms) – The son of Curlin, a $375,000 yearling purchase, now has two well-spaced workouts at Gulfstream Park. [current William Hill odds: 125-1]

Violent City (Violence – I. Wilkes – Lothenbach Stables) On Jan. 11, he was a first-time winner by four lengths at Gulfstream Park going six-furlongs. More recently, he ran second by a length to Americanus on Saturday. [current William Hill odds: 100-1]

War Stopper (Declaration of War – R. Rodriguez – Salermo Stables) This maiden winner at Aqueduct beat a nice Kentucky shipper when he won going a mile in a fast time that earned a 94 Beyer Speed Figure. He is expected to start on the Derby trail in the Gotham with a string of breezes showing at Belmont Park. [current William Hill odds: 60-1]

Remaining East Coast Division Preps

• Fountain of Youth (G2) – Gulfstream Park – Feb. 29 [50-20-10-5]

• Gotham (G3) – Aqueduct – March 7 [50-20-10-5]

• Tampa Bay Derby (G2) – Tampa Bay Downs - March 7 [50-20-10-5]

• Florida Derby (G1) – Gulfstream Park – March 28 [100-40-20-10]

• Wood Memorial (G2) – Aqueduct – April 4 [100-40-20-10]