Kentucky Derby 2018 trail: Mucho Macho Man odds and analysis

Saturday's $100,000 Mucho Macho Man Stakes drew a talented field considering this race carries neither 2018 Kentucky Derby qualifying points nor graded status. What it is does show is that trainers don’t want to worry about the kind of frigid weather that has enveloped most of the country, especially New York, where the Jerome Stakes earlier this had to be postponed. It's tricky enough, after all, to prepare a 3-year-old for the Derby even under ideal circumstances.

The one-turn, one-mile Mucho Macho Man will run as Race 10 of 11 at Gulfstream Park, with post time scheduled for 4:37 p.m. ET. Here's the field of eight.

Coltandmississippi [SCRATCHED (ML 12-1) Pioneerof the Nile - Pletcher/L. Saez – 4: 2-0-0 - $75,637] This $400,000 Keeneland yearling purchase won his first start at Saratoga going seven furlongs, but since then he has been a bit of an in-and-outer. In two stakes races he has finished well out of the money, but he also won a first level allowance race at Gulfstream Park West in October. Bottom line with this Todd Pletcher runner is that his two wins were not particularly fast with Beyer Speed Figures of 60 and 73 and, as a result, he will run with blinkers for the first time. Trying stakes company again.

Forever Taken [(ML 20-1) Take Charge Indy - Sano/Rios – 7: 1-2-1 - $37,603] He's one of two in this field for trainer Antonio Sano of Gunnevera fame. The horse has plenty of experience but only one win, and that came in a $35,000 maiden claimer. His two second-place finishes were in starter optional claiming races. He has been a consistent performer, but this field is much tougher than any race in which he has run. Big test in class.

Dak Attack [(ML 9-5) Ghostzapper - Romans/Albarado - 2: 2-0-0 - $71,730] This promising 3-year-old has a perfect 2-for-2 career that began in June at Churchill Downs and moved to an August stakes win in the Ellis Park Juvenile. The $625,000 yearling purchase has been off since then with the type of shin problems common among 2-year-olds.

Trainer Dale Romans, who has never been shy about praising his horses, said, ”They paid more than $600,000 for him, so he’s always had big hype. He’s always been the perfect horse. He does everything right; he’s smart; good physically, he’s got good pedigree; he has the whole package.”

Dak Attack will be a deserving favorite, but this will be his first time going a distance of ground. Look for him to be running late, as he did in both victories. The one to beat.

Bal Harbour [(ML 9-2) First Samurai - Pletcher/Velazquez - 6: 3-2-1 - $136,075] This Pletcher runner comes into the race with two stakes wins in his last two starts. He won the Sapling at Monmouth in September and then came back to take the Smooth Air at Gulfstream last month, earning his highest Beyer of 81. Both of those wins came from off the pace. Has experience and two stakes wins.

Santiamen [(ML 8-1) Dialed In - Sano/I. Ortiz – 2: 2-0-0 - $56,800] The second runner for Sano is unbeaten in two starts that came in November and December. First was his maiden win at Gulfstream Park West and then an allowance at Gulfstream. The allowance was going six furlongs, and he is yet another in this field that likes to rally.

“In his last race he threw a shoe,” Sano said. “He’s been training very good, and I think the distance is going to be good for my horse.”  Talented horse making step up to stakes company.

Mask [(ML 2-1) Tapit - C. Brown/Castellano - 1: 1-0-0 - $45,000] Mask has got a lot going for him. He won his first start at Belmont Park impressively with an 88 Beyer while rallying in the 6 1/2-furlong maiden event. Mask beat Navistar, a talented Pletcher runner, in that race. He was sired by Tapit and sold for $625,000 as a yearling. If that’s not enough, add in Chad Brown as trainer and Javier Castellano as jockey. Mask was so well regarded that he was included in the first Kentucky Derby Future Wager pool and was bet to 47-1 odds. He has tremendous potential, but this field is filled with talent and experience. This big talent faces a tough field.

Handsome Franco [(ML 50-1) Curlin - Cordero-Lopez/J. Diaz – 5: 3-1-0 - $46,060] This son of Curlin was purchased for a mere $10,000 as a 2-year-old at OBS April and won three of his first four races at Camarero in Puerto Rico. He finished a distant seventh in his first mainland start in the Smooth Air. This second try at Gulfstream will be even tougher. Up against it in this field.

Whereshetoldmetogo [(ML 6-1) El Padrino - Pecoraro/Gaffalione – 6: 2-2-0 - $92,250] Lots of experience from this bargain basement $7,000 yearling purchase. He has run at four different tracks and was a big surprise when he finished second in the Smooth Air, just a neck behind Bal Harbour. Not sure if that says more about Whereshetoldmetogo or about the quality of Bal Harbour. The connections probably didn’t expect this race to draw as it did, but the Smooth Air was the best for a horse that has been steadily improving. Kudos to the owners for making a great purchase. Another check would be great.

SUMMARY: None of the eight runners in the Mucho Macho Man field have shown any real interest in running on or even near the lead, thus it is very hard to predict how the race will develop. With the addition of blinkers and the rail post-position it would seem that Coltandmississippi may inherit the early lead. Lack of speed or not, class will tell and the most talented horses should be in contention coming down the stretch. To me those horses are Dak Attack and Mask.