Looking for the 2018 Kentucky Derby winner? Start here
If you are looking for the winner of the 2018 Kentucky Derby, most likely he has already run at least one race and, if not, history tells us that he will debut by the end of calendar year. That Derby statistic -- also known as the Curse of Apollo -- tells us that since 1882, no horse has won the Run for the Roses without a start as a 2-year-old.
It doesn’t mean that next year’s Derby winner is already a stakes winner or, for that matter, has even won a race, but that he has made or will make a start as a juvenile. Last year, Always Dreaming ran twice in maiden special weight races in New York, with his best finish a runner-up effort. The Todd Pletcher trainee got hot from Jan. 25 to the first Saturday in May, winning four races in a row.
Eventually, the Curse of Apollo will be broken. Sports records never last forever. Many experts feel that it will happen sooner than later because, generally speaking, the most expensive and well-bred 2-year-olds are making their debuts later and later.
However, the Kentucky Derby is not like any other race and the facts show that from 2000 to 2004 the Derby winner debuted in the fall. But in the past five years the first start came earlier, between April and August. Recently, that extra experience on the track has been critical to success in the first leg of the Triple Crown.
Few horses that debut as 3-year-olds even make it into the starting gate on the first Saturday in May. Bodemeister got the closest to victory when he gave up the lead to I’ll Have Another near the wire in 2012. Last year, Battle of Midway was able to rally for third in the Derby. Curlin lacked experience but got the show spot in the Run for the Roses, eventually winning the division championship in 2007. Summer Bird ended up sixth in 2009, after debuting just two months before the Derby. He, too, went on to win the Eclipse Award.
Right now, Bolt d’Oro and Good Magic sit on top of most Kentucky Derby lists. Bolt d’Oro is currently the favorite in the Las Vegas sports books where you can get odds of 15-1. Good Magic, who won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile in convincing fashion, is the second choice at 18-1. Churchill Downs will be offering the first Kentucky Derby Future wagering opportunity from Nov 23-26.
It is quite possible that the Kentucky Derby winner will make his first start in the final month and half of the year. Trainer Steve Asmussen sent out a very impressive first-time winner, Principe Guilherme, on Nov. 10, at Churchill Downs.
Keep track of all of the contenders for the Kentucky Derby by clicking on the Derby 2018 link on the HRN homepage.