Handicapping Kentucky Derby 2018 'A to Z' style

Each year before the Run for the Roses, I like to provide our readers with a variety of helpful wagering tips. Thus, I give you the latest edition of "A to Z" handicapping for the 2018 Kentucky Derby.

A – Animal Kingdom – Animal Kingdom is one of only three Derby winners since 2000 who made his final prep in a race that is not currently known as a 100-point qualifier. Animal Kingdom won Turfway Park's Spiral Stakes just before the Derby. Mine That Bird took the Sunland Darby, and for War Emblem it was the Illinois Derby. This year, only My Boy Jack, who won the Lexington, fits the bill, although he did run in the Louisiana Derby prior to that race.

B – Back to Back – The last trainer to win consecutive runnings of the Run for the Roses was Bob Baffert with Silver Charm (1997) and Real Quiet (1998). Silver Charm was Baffert’s first Derby winner. Of course, Todd Pletcher trained last year's winner, Always Dreaming.

C – Curlin – Curlin, who finished third in the 2007 Kentucky Derby, is the sire of three of this year’s runners with Good Magic, Vino Rosso, and Solomini. He's still looking to produce a winner in the race.

D – D. Wayne Lukas – D. Wayne Lukas, 82, would become the oldest trainer to win the Kentucky Derby if Bravazo could get him his fifth victory. Art Sherman currently holds that distinction. When California Chrome won, Sherman was 77. Lukas and Pletcher are currently tied with the most Derby starters, 48, entering this year.

 
E – Elliot Walden – As a trainer, Elliot Walden [3: 0-2-0] had a few Derby runners, but since becoming president of WinStar Farm in 2005, he won the Derby in 2010 with Super Saver. This year WinStar will be represented by Audible, Justify and Noble Indy.

F – Favorites – Since the points era began with the 2013 running, the favorite has won every Derby (Orb at 5.40-1; California Chrome at 2.50-1; American Pharoah at 2.80-1; Nyquist at 2.30-1; and Always Dreaming at 4.70-1]. Prior to 2013, you had to go back to 2008 to find the last top choice winner in Big Brown. From 1980 to 1999, no favorites won, marking the longest such stretch in the Derby's history.

G – Gate to wire – The last horse to win the Derby while on the lead every step of the way was War Emblem in 2002. He was 20.50-1 coming off his victory in the Illinois Derby.

H – Hundred-point victory – Since the points system was instituted in 2013, every Derby winner made his final prep race a victory in one of the major 100-point races. Always Dreaming, Nyquist, and Orb won the Florida Derby. For American Pharoah, it was the Arkansas Derby, and California Chrome topped the Santa Anita Derby.

I – Inside vs. outside – There is a lot of post position discussion before every big race, but in the Derby, it can really make a difference. Which is actually worse: the inside gate spots or the outside? The last winner from post 1 was Ferdinand (1986), post 2 was Affirmed (1978), and Real Quiet (1998) from the 3 hole. Also note that for Affirmed, it was only a field of 11. From the outside, Big Brown (2008) won from post 20, I’ll Have Another (2012) post 19, and Gato del Sol (1982) out of gate 18.

J – Jockeys, rookie – Guiding a horse to victory in the 20-horse field is no easy task. Riders making their first Derby start must deal with the perils of the field size while competing against the finest riders in the world. It will be a daunting task for expected rookies -- Paco Lopez on Firenze Fire and James Graham on Lone Sailor -- but keep in mind that Mario Gutierrez (I’ll Have Another in 2012) and Stewart Elliot (Smarty Jones in 2004) were first-time winners.

K – Kent and Keith – The Desormeaux brothers are back again trying to become the first sibling trainer/jockey combination to win the Derby. They were closest with Exaggerator’s second-place finish in 2016.

L – Last deep closer - Orb was the most-recent horse with this running style to rally from far back to win the Kentucky Derby. Remember that in 2013, there was a complete pace collapse as the five front-runners finished below 12th place while the first five to cross the wire had all been at the back of the pack early in the going. Orb came from as far back as 17th after six furlongs to take the roses.

M – Millionaires – There are four horses in the Derby field that are already millionaires: Mendelssohn ($1,961,137), Good Magic ($1,855,000), Bolt d’Oro ($1,016,000) and Magnum Moon $1,177,800.

N – Not Kentucky-bred – There are only three horses in the field that were not bred in Kentucky. Audible looks to join Funny Cide as the second New York-bred to win the Derby. Flameaway is a Canada-bred, as were winners Sunny’s Halo and Northern Dancer. Firenze Fire could become the seventh Florida-bred to notch a Derby victory.

O – Oaks/Derby daily double – No trainer since 1952 has won the Oaks and the Derby in the same year. This year, Dale Romans will saddle Coach Rocks in the Oaks with Free Drop Billy and Promises Fulfilled in the Derby. Bob Baffert has Rayya with Justify and Solomini. Mark Casse sends out Wonder Gadot and Flameaway. Tom Amoss has Chocolate Martini and Lone Sailor. Kiaran McLaughlin could pull off the rare double with Take Charge Paula and Enticed.

P – Pletcher – The now-two-time Kentucky Derby winner Pletcher [48: 2-2-3] has had a Derby starter every year but one since 2000, with the exception in 2003. This year will not be the first time that he has had four runners in a Run for the Roses. He actually will have four or more starters for the sixth time, including in 2010 when he got his first victory with Super Saver.

Q – Quick wagering guide – Here is a HRN link to the Oaks/Derby weekend wagering menu.

R – Running style – Stalkers, within a few lengths of the lead all race long, have won eight Kentucky Derbys this century including the last four in a row. Deep Closers, more than 10 lengths behind in the early going, won six. There were three closers (mid-pack), and they raced not more than 10 lengths behind. Only once since 2000 was there a front runner that led every step of the way.

S – Speed figures – The highest winning Beyer Speed Figures for the Kentucky Derby in this century belong to Monarchos (116 in 2001) and War Emblem (114 in 2002). The lowest figs were recorded by Giacomo (100 in 2005) and I’ll Have Another (101 in 2012).

T – Three-time – Three-time Derby winners Kent Desormeaux and Victor Espinoza both have a chance to join an elite company of jockeys if either My Boy Jack or Bolt d’Oro are victorious. Bill Shoemaker won the roses four times, while Bill Hartack and Eddie Arcaro had five victories. Desormeaux [21: 3-1-4] won with Real Quiet, Fusaichi Pegasus, and Big Brown. Espinoza [9: 3-0-1] rode War Emblem, California Chrome, and American Pharoah to Derby glory.

U – Unbeaten –  For the last five years, the Derby winner has entered the race unbeaten in his 3-year-old year. Audible (Holy Bull and Florida Derby), Justify (MSW, allowance, Santa Anita Derby), Magnum Moon (maiden special weight, allowance, Rebel, Arkansas Derby), and Mendelssohn (overseas stakes, UAE Derby) fit the bill this year.

V - Value – Any wager that involves the Derby will provide value because of the 20-horse field. The Derby’s field size provides American bettors an unique opportunity to make bets that have the potential to produce life changing payouts.

W – Winless Trainers – The Kentucky Derby is run only once a year with the largest field and that makes it the hardest American race to win. A number of top trainers are without a Derby victory. In this year’s field they include: Tom Amoss [5: 0-0-0], Steve Asmussen [18: 0-0-2], Chad Brown [4: 0-0-0], Mark Casse [5: 0-0-0], Keith Desormeaux [2: 0-1-0], Jerrry Hollendorfer [6: 0-0-1], Kiaran McLaughlin [7: 0-1-0], Bill Mott [7: 0-0-0], Aidan O’Brien [5: 0-0-0], Dale Romans [8: 0-0-2], Mick Ruis [Rookie], and Jason Servis [Rookie].

X – (E)xacta – Even with the favorite winning the past five Derbys, the exacta has paid well. It brought in $336 with Always Dreaming, $31 with Nyquist, American Pharoah’s paid $73, California Chrome topped a $340 payout, and Orb’s 1-2 returned $982.

Y – Yearlings – Thirteen of the horses in the Derby field were purchased as a yearling, 11 at Keeneland and two at Saratoga. The range in purchase price is striking with Mendelssohn costing $3 million and Good Magic $1 million down to the bargain buys of Promises Fulfilled at $37,000 and My Boy Jack costing only $20,000.

Z – Zero – That’s the number of runners in this year’s Derby that are sired by a Kentucky Derby winner. The most recent Derby winner sired by a Derby winner was Grindstone (1996), who was by Unbridled (1990).