Kentucky Derby 2016 - Handicapping Tips From A to Z
With the 2016 Kentucky Derby just a few days away, here a twenty-six Derby handicapping angles, facts, and tips presented A to Z style.
A – Arkansas Derby – Since 2000, three of the Kentucky Derby winners prepped in Oaklawn Park’s signature race. Most recently, of course, it was Triple Crown winner American Pharoah. Otherwise it was back to Super Saver who was second in 2010 and then Smarty Jones in 2004 who was a winner. Creator will be carrying the banner for the Arkansas Derby this year.
B – Blue Grass – Statistics on this Keeneland prep are deceptive because of the years that the race was run on a synthetic surface, however Street Sense is the only Derby winner to come out of the Blue Grass in the 21st century. Kentucky loving Brody’s Cause has a big chance to get the win this year.
C – ”Close up” – In the recent Horse Racing Nation Kentucky Derby Roundtable video, trainer Dale Romans said, “In the history of the Derby you need to be fairly close up turning for home. At the eighth pole, you better be right there in contention or you’re not going to win the Derby.”
D – Daily Double – The featured Daily Double is the Kentucky Oaks/Kentucky Derby wager. In the Oaks my picks to win are: Rachel’s Valentina, Land Over Sea, and Lewis Bay. To complete the DD in the Derby: Exaggerator, Mo Tom, Nyquist, and Brody’s Cause.
E – Exaggerator – Exaggerator, Nyquist, Brody’s Cause, and Mo Tom are the four horses that I think have the best chance to win the Derby.
F – Florida Derby – The road to the Kentucky Derby winner’s circle has gone by way of the Florida Derby three times since 2000. In all three instances Orb, Big Brown, and Barbaro also won the Gulfstream Park final prep. Orb and Big Brown were sent off as the favorite in the Run for the Roses while Barbaro was the second choice. This year Nyquist will be a clear favorite has he tries to the complete the Florida-Kentucky Derby double.
G – Giacomo – Giacomo’s 100 Beyer Speed Figure is the lowest for a Derby winner since 2000. Since 2009 the winning BSF has ranged from 101 to 107 and the highest figure of 116 this century was recorded by Monarchos in 2001.
H - Hundred – Since the year 2000, only three Derby winners came out of a race that is not currently one of the 100-point prep races. In 2011 Animal Kingdom used the Spiral as his final start and paid $43.80 to win. Mine That Bird came out of a fourth place finish in the Sunland Derby in 2009 and paid $103.20. War Emblem paid $43 after his Derby win followed his Illinois Derby victory in 2002.
I – Inside post position – The last winner of the Derby from the one post position was Ferdinand in 1986. Risen Star finished third in 1988. In 2010 Lookin At Lucky had the kind of trip that can happen in the 20-horse field when breaking from the one post. The official chart described the trouble, “… roughed at the start and again in the initial furlong was outrun for a half mile …” and very quickly he was in eighteenth position. However in recent years, very few top contenders have had to break from the rail.
J – Leading Jockey – In Kentucky Derby history only ten jockeys have won three or more times and three of them are in this year’s race in Gary Stevens, Kent Desormeaux, and Victor Espinoza. Stevens (3-21), Desormeaux (3-19), and Mike Smith (1-21) are amongst the most experienced riders all-time in the Derby.
K – Kentucky Derby – The Kentucky Derby is unique; the ten furlongs, the twenty horse field, and the 170,000 people in the stands. It is important to adjust your handicapping because there is no race like the Derby. I expect a faster pace than many handicappers who see a slow Derby early on. The emotion for jockeys and horses, along with the need to avoid traffic trouble adds to the early speed. In the HRN Roundtable trainer Tom Amoss agreed, “There’s always pace in the Derby.” Todd Pletcher felt the same way, “There’s going to be more pace than everyone else seems to be handicapping. There’s always jockey’s trying to get position going into the first turn in this race.”
L – Louisiana Derby – Although no Louisiana Derby participant has found the Kentucky Derby winner’s circle since 2003, they have certainly had some good showings as of late. In 2014 Commanding Curve finished second. The year before Golden Soul and Revolutionary got second and third, while Nehro was also second in 2011. In 2003, Funny Cide ran second in the Louisiana Derby, which was run in early March and went on to the Wood Memorial before winning his roses.
M - Make a Late Move – This year’s Derby has seven closers who will be making a late move coming around the final turn. Those laet runners are all very talented and hard to separate and it is possible that the Top three places come from this group. Mo Tom, Brody’s Cause, and Exaggerator combine that closing move with an impressive ability to accelerate.
N – Not So Fast - Beyer Speed Figures seem to indicate that this is not a fast group of three-year-olds. The final series of 100-point prep races produced figs of 91 in the Blue Grass by Brody’s Cause, 94 in the Florida Derby by Nyquist, 103 in the Santa Anita Derby by Exaggerator, 96 in the Arkansas Derby by Creator, 91 by Gun Runner in the Louisiana Derby, and 93 by Outwork in the Wood Memorial.
O – One – One is the number to find in the past performances of the last five Kentucky Derby winners, who were all victorious in their final prep race.
P – Pedigree – A lot of people like to turn into pedigree experts when preparing for the Derby and I am not one of them. I like to let the horses show me on the track if they are sprinters, turf runners, or routers. When it comes to the Derby I cannot fault a horse that wins his two turn races and looks strong crossing the wire. Many handicappers represent themselves as pedigree pros when it comes to Nyquist and they insist that he will not get the ten-furlong distance. If that is true I will need to see it happen on the First Saturday in May.
Q – Quinonez – Luis Quinonez is one of four rookie jockeys in this year’s Derby; along with Junior Alvarado, Florent Geroux, and Brian Hernandez. Having a lack of experience does not mean you can’t win the big one. Mario Gutierrez did it in in 2012 aboard I’ll Have Another. Before that Stewart Elliot won with Smarty Jones in 2004. Affirmed and Spectacular Bid were ridden by rookies who won their first and only Derby starts.
R – Rookies - Gustavo Delgado, Clifford Sise, Keith Desormeaux, Mikio Matsunaga will be Kentucky Derby rookies. Fear not if you are a supporter of their horses because it is not uncommon for first timers to win the race. You’d actually be amazed at how often it has occurred. I will share with you those that have done it this century. Neil Drysdale won the Derby in 2000 with Fusaichi Pegasus. To begin a run of four consecutive years, Barclay Tagg won as a rookie in 2003 with Funny Cide. John Servis won his only Derby start in 2004 with Smarty Jones. In 2005 it was John Shirreffs with Giacomo. Michael Matz did it in 2006 with Barbaro. Rick Dutrow won as a rookie in 2008 with Big Brown. Art Sherman broke through in 2014 with California Chrome.
S – Santa Anita Derby – This California prep race has also produced three Kentucky Derby winners since the year 2000. The wins by California Chrome and I’ll Have Another give the Santa Anita race an edge in recency, but prior to them there is a gap back to Giacomo in 2005. Exaggerator gives the Great Race Place an excellent chance to pick up win number four.
T – Todd Pletcher – I will not be using Outwork and Destin in my tickets this year and that is not because Pletcher’s Derby record is 43: 1-2-3. I am not one of those Pletcher bashers, I actually am a big fan of him. I don’t think that Outwork’s frontrunning style will work well and I am not comfortable with Destin’s eight week gap from his Tampa Bay Derby win. In the 20-horse field he will not have things as easily as in Florida.
U – UAE Derby – This Dubai prep race has yet to make an impact on the Derby, so I will pass on Lani and suggest the race get moved to the 50 point category.
V – Victor Espinoza – Espinoza has won the last two Kentucky Derbys and five of the last six Triple Crown races. With his career Derby record of 7: 3-0-1, he picked up a late call on the closer Whitmore. His three wins have come when forwardly placed on American Pharoah, California Chrome, and War Emblem. The addition of Espinoza on Whitmore will no doubt attract a lot of action from his Triple Crown fans, thus making him a significant underlay.
W – Wood Memorial – The big New York prep race has not held up well recently when it comes to Derby results. A few fourth place finishes have come in the last few years from Wood participants. You need to go back to the beginning of the century to find Funny Cide and Monarchos who both finished second in the Wood and Fusaichi Pegasus who was the last Wood winner to take home the roses.
X – (e)Xtreme Outside – Breaking from the far outside has actually been a good thing in recent years. American Pharoah broke from the 15 last year, as did Orb in 2013. I’ll Have Another came out of post position 19. In 2011 Animal Kingdom came from the 16 and second place finisher Nehro was in the 18 hole. Mine That Bird went from the 19 to the rail in his 2009 win. It is easier to stay out of trouble in the early stages of the race on the extreme outside.
Y – YouTube – Make sure you use the HRN video Derby resources that are archived on YouTube.
Z – Zipse – HRN Managaing Editor Brian Zipse and I will give out picks for our favorite Kentucky Derby wagers on the upcoming Derby Week edition of HorseCenter.