Jockey Club Gold Cup 2018: Odds and analysis for Saturday's race

The 2018 Jockey Club Gold Cup has an international flair to it with three of the top contenders having a European background. Gronkowski, Mendelssohn and Thunder Snow all came from across the pond to compete in the Triple Crown series, and they're now seeking a “Win and You’re In” spot in this year’s Breeders’ Cup Classic.

Diversify is the favorite as he tries to win the Grade 1, $750,000 race for the second year in a row. The New York-bred son of Bellamy Road has an affinity for Belmont Park, where he has won four straight races dating back to the Saginaw Stakes in 2017. Diversify comes into the race off a win in the Whitney (G1) at Saratoga and is currently ranked No. 3 in the NTRA Top Thoroughbred Poll behind only Accelerate and Justify.

The Jockey Club Gold Cup is carded as Race 10 out of 11 with post time for the day of racing set for 12:30 pm ET. Here is a look at the field of eight with prospective morning line odds by Horse Racing Nation.

Carlino [ML 30- 1 – Lemon Drop Kid – Hennig/Lezcano – 13: 4-2-1 - $191,407] Carlino is most recently an allowance winner at Saratoga who prior to that dabbled in stakes races in New York with fourth place being his best finish. This Grade 1 is a big reach for the Mark Hennig trainee. First try at a Grade 1.
 

Gronkowski [ML 5-2 – Lonhro – C. Brown/J. Ortiz – 8: 4-2-0 - $440,644] He proved that he liked the Belmont Park racing surface when he ran second in the Belmont Stakes (G1) in his first start in America behind Triple Crown winner Justify. That was not the case when he finished a distant eighth in the Travers.

"He was doing great heading into the Travers. The only time he didn't do well was in the [race]," trainer Chad Brown said. "The track just got him that day."

In the JCGC, Gronkowski will face older horses for the first time. There is plenty of early pace expected in the race to set up his closing move, but in Diversify, Thunder Road and Mendelssohn, it is by no means cheap speed. He’s back to the Belmont Park, a track he likes.

Mendelssohn  [ML 7-2 – Scat Daddy – A. O’Brien/Moore – 10: 4-2-1 - $2,227,137] Mendelssohn has not won a race since the UAE Derby (G2) back in March on that notoriously speed-favoring track at Meydan. He blitzed that field in Dubai, but here in the U.S. he has not been able to get loose and carry his speed to victory -- not in the Dwyer (G3) against American sprinters or in the Travers (G1) against Catholic Boy. But he was much more successful going 10 furlongs, same as the JCGC, in the Travers. Now he figures to be challenged by Diversify and Thunder Snow in the early going, and that translates into a very tough task. Ultimately, I still have to wonder… Is he better on turf than dirt?

Patch  [ML 15-1 – Union Rags – Pletcher/L. Saez – 10: 2-2-2 - $518,520] When you get down to it, Patch has only two wins in his career: his maiden victory at Gulfstream Park and his 2018 debut in an allowance at Belmont Park. While racing against older horses in stakes company this year, the going has been tough and it sure doesn’t get any easier in this edition of the JCGC. The popular colt always shows heart out on the track, but he seems to be up against it in here. To his credit he does like Belmont Park. In a very tough spot.

Uno Mas Modelo [ML 30-1 – Macho Uno – Quartarolo/Castellano – 27: 6-4-2 - $187,872] In a high-profile race like the Jockey Club Gold Cup, it is no surprise to see an entry from the Loooch Racing Stable. This son of Mach Uno has won three straight including his last two in allowance races at Saratoga. Two victories at the Spa is impressive, but this one was running for a $12,500 tag as recently as December and has never been in a graded stakes race. Making graded stakes debut.

Diversify  [ML 7-5 – Bellamy Road – Violette/I. Ortiz – 15: 10-2-0 - $1,959,425] This New York-bred is very hard to beat in his home state. His record at Belmont is 8: 6-2-0, which of course includes last year’s edition of this race. Overall, he hasn't lost in New York in more than a year. Diversify is also 2-for-2 racing at the 10-furlong distance, and he is equally good on a dry or a wet track. He is likely to face challenges early from Mendelssohn and Thunder Snow, but neither of them has survived the kind of fractions that Diversify can post. Will be hard to beat at Belmont Park.

Discreet Lover [ML 20- 1 – Repent – St. Lewis/Franco – 43: 6-7-7 - $941,560] The wheels finally came off for Discreet Lover in the Woodward (G1) after his longshot show finishes in the Whitney and the Suburban. It has now been more than five months since he won the Excelsior (G3) at Aqueduct. Taking another try at the top level.

Thunder Snow [ML 5-1 – Helmet – bin Suroor/Soumillon – 19: 7-5-2 - $8,381,476] It's interesting that Thunder Snow received virtually the same running line for his victory in the Dubai World Cup (G1) that Mendelssohn got on the same day in the UAE Derby: “clear 600m out, easily” compared to “clear 600m out, ran on.” No doubt that in the JCGC, the Saeed bin Suroor trainee is not going to get clear from Diversify. Thunder Snow is the leading money winner in the field, but most of that came in the World Cup. His lifetime record is impressive, but this will be the second toughest race of his life behind the Kentucky Derby. In his return in the Juddmonte International (G1), he had excuses for his poor performance, when he faced top European turf stars and he lost a couple of shoes in the running. Can he come close to his World Cup performance?

Summary: Pace seems to be a key factor in this year’s Jockey Club Gold Cup, and Diversify has the advantage. His speed and his ability to carry that speed through a distance of ground is going to make him difficult to beat.

Mendelssohn and Thunder Snow both last won a race at Meydan on the same day when then ran away from their fields in the UAE Derby and the Dubai World Cup in what were remarkably similar performances – visually impressive and aided by the racing surface on that particular evening.

I don’t think that either one of them is as fast as Diversify, who has a tremendous home track advantage over the two Europeans. They are likely to try and run with the New York-bred winner of this race last year. In the end, Gronkowski is the horse that is likely to benefit from this pace scenario.

Ultimately, I think Diversify will win his second JCGC in a row and Gronkowski will rally for second, passing the tiring Mendelssohn and Thunder Snow.