If You Like Arrogate, You Must Like Drefong, Too

Heading to the 2016 Breeders’ Cup, Arrogate is the buzz horse of the upcoming World Championships. On every possible media platform, Arrogate has his staunch supporters who adamantly believe that the Bob Baffert trained three-year-old has a big chance to upset California Chrome in the Classic.

I don’t know about that, but what surprises me the most is that there is very little talk about his stablemate, Drefong. In my eyes if you like Arrogate in the Classic than you have to like Drefong to win the Sprint. If you take a closer look, the similarities in their past performances are uncanny.

Both Arrogate and Drefong are lightly raced sophomores trained by Baffert. To be more specific they both have started only five times in their careers. They both have won four consecutive races after losing their maiden special weight debuts where they were both made significant favorites to win. For both of them, their comment lines in defeat begin with the same words, “Off slow.” Yes, of course, in their initial starts, they were ridden by the same jockey, Martin Garcia.

Do you think that those similarities are just a coincidence? Let’s look a little more closely. In start number two, both Arrogate and Drefong were impressive in their maiden victories. Arrogate won at Santa Anita by 4 ½ lengths and Drefong crushed his competition by 9 ½ lengths at Del Mar.

Start number three for each of them was an OC40/N1X-N allowance race open to three-year-olds and upward at Santa Anita. Arrogate continued at the distance of a mile and a sixteenth to win by 9 ¼, while Drefong stayed at six furlongs and notched a 3 ½ length victory.

For their fourth career start, they both moved up to a level two allowance, OC62/N2X-N, again open to older horses, with the same results. Arrogate broke slowly again and won by 1 ½ lengths. Drefong had no such issues and cruised to an easy 5 ¼ length victory.

Four races and three convincing wins for each, but neither of the Bob Baffert budding stars had faced stakes competition. The Hall of Fame Triple Crown winning trainer decided to keep them on the same path with a trip to Saratoga in August. Baffert, who has never been one to avoid a challenge with his horses, picked out a grade one race for their stakes debuts.

Thus, Arrogate and Drefong would face top competition against other three-year-olds on the same day, August 27, 2016. Arrogate would run in race 11, the Travers, and Drefong in race 8, the King’s Bishop. On that day they would both face the biggest fields of their careers. The strategy was the same for jockey Mike Smith, who rode both horses, go to the lead right out of the gate and the result was the same. Arrogate and Drefong each led every step of the way and destroyed their competition. On that day however, Drefong was the favorite, but Arrogate was overlooked at 11-1.

Arrogate’s performance was record setting with a new track standard and a BSF of 122. From the moment that Arrogate crossed the finish line the buzz began and hasn’t stopped. Is Arrogate the best three-year-old of 2016 and can he beat California Chrome? For Drefong, the buzz about his performance lasted about an hour and a half, from race 8 to race 11.

Just short of a week until the Breeders’ Cup it makes sense to me that with remarkably similar past performances, if you think Arrogate has a chance to win the Classic against Chrome and Frosted, then you must certainly think that Drefong can win the Sprint.