Hopeful Stakes 2017 - Odds and Analysis

The two-year-olds stretch out to seven furlongs in the $350,000 Hopeful (G1), which is the final stakes race of the 40-day 2017 Saratoga meeting. Firenze Fire, the winner of the Sanford on opening weekend at the Spa, will face a talented and competitive field of eight.

Over the years, the winners of the Hopeful have gone on to become important stallions and victors of major American stakes including Triple Crown and Breeders' Cup races. The list of Hopeful stars since the turn of the century includes: City Zip, Afleet Alex, First Samurai, Majestic Warrior, Shanghai Bobby, Competitive Edge, and current three-year-old star, Practical Joke.

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The field of eight in the 113^th running of the Hopeful contains only lightly raced juvenile colts, all of whom have made just one or two starts. It wasn't always this way. In the 1972 Hopeful, Secretariat got his fourth win out of five career starts and in 1977, it was Affirmed’s fifth victory in six races.

Mojovation [ML 2-1 - Zayat Stables – Uncle Mo – Pletcher – Velazquez – 1: 1-0-0 - $49,800] Yes, this one will be running in the colors of the 2015 Triple Crown winner American Pharoah. Trainer Todd Pletcher has won the Hopeful three times and a victory in this year’s race could be crucial in the race for the Saratoga Training title, because Chad Brown does not have a horse in here or the finale; sorry to digress. This Zayat colt won at Saratoga going six furlongs, while earning a co-high Beyer Speed Figure of 86. He led his maiden race fairly comfortably and drew off to a two-length victory. It will be very interesting to see if Johnny V. hustles this one out of the gate, as he has the biggest early pace numbers. With the rail post-position, a slow break would mean coming from a stalking position. Speed to Spare

Oskar Blues [ML 10-1 - Fern Circle Stables – Speightstown – McPeek – D. Davis – 1: 1-0-0 - $49,800] This Kenny McPeek runner broke his maiden just three weeks ago at the Spa. In that race, he was in a head to head battle all the around the track and prevailed by a nose while racing on the inside going seven furlongs. You have to admire the tenacity that this colt showed, but should we be concerned about returning on relatively short notice in such a tough spot. He also earned an 86 BSF. Impressive Maiden Win, Coming Back Quickly

Firenze Fire [ML 7-2 - Mr Amore Stables – Poseidon’s Warrior – Jason Servis – Irad Ortiz – 2: 2-0-0 - $111,600] – He’s the only stakes winner in the race having beaten Free Drop Billy and Psychoanalyze in the Sanford (G3) opening weekend at Saratoga. He got little respect after his maiden win at Monmouth Park and took the Sanford at odds of 12-1, while rallying from fourth in an eight-horse field. After that win, he was moved from the Jersey Shore track to train in the Saratoga barn of Servis. His numbers are good, and he should like the increase in distance when he faces this tougher field. Serious Contender

Psychoanalyze [ML 15-1 - Fort Springs Racing – Overanalyze – Lynch – Franco – 2: 1-0-1 - $60,000] Third in the Sanford, after a first-time maiden win at Belmont Park, Psychoanalyze wants to run on the lead and is unlikely to get it in the Hopeful. Trainer Brian Lynch is 1 for 22 at Saratoga. Needs to Improve.

National Flag [ML 9-2 - WinStar/China Horse Club – Speightstown – Pletcher – Jose Ortiz – 2: 1-0-0 - $50,550] – National Flag was the most expensive yearling purchase in this field at $600,000. He broke his maiden at Saratoga. He will be the longer price of the two Pletcher trainees in the field. Johnny V. rode both as maidens and has opted to ride Mojovation.  The “Other Pletcher”

Sporting Chance [ML 8-1 - Baker/Mack – Tiznow – Lukas – L. Saez – 2: 1-1-0 - $59,140] – This son of Tiznow broke his maiden on the Sanford undercard defeating Givemeaminit by 2 ¼ lengths. He is another in here that has shown a preference to run on the lead. Trainer D. Wayne Lukas has won the Hopeful SEVEN times, most recently with Strong Mandate in 2013. I don’t think this will be number eight. Needs the Lukas Hopeful Magic

Givemeaminit [ML 10-1 - Valene Farms – Star Guitar – Stewart – Rosario – 1: M-1-0 - $16,600] This Dallas Stewart runner is still a maiden, but is my second choice in the Hopeful. He made a huge closing move as a maiden going 5 ½ furlongs while losing to Sporting Chance, but Givemeaminit is the one I like out of that race. The stretch out to seven panels fits this one perfectly. Stewart knows how to spring an upset and he does great work training horses to make a big closing moves. It won’t be easy racing a field of winners, but he has a great chance to spring an upset. Use in your exactas and trifectas, also. Great Chance to Upset

Free Drop Billy [ML 4-1 - Albaugh Family Stable – Union Rags – Romans – Albarado – 2: 1-1-0 - $58,020] Dale Romans has a barn loaded with talented two-year-olds and Free Drop Billy is one of them. A first-time winner at Churchill Downs and then a one-length loss in the Sanford, this Union Rags colt has come running late after troubled starts. Since the Sanford, he has had three fast workouts. With experience from two races, he should break better from the gate, and the move to seven furlongs is just what he needs. Top Choice