Handicapping the 2015 Wood Memorial

Brian Zipse

Matt Shifman

1 - Tiz Shea D (Tiznow--Ender’s Sister, by A.P. Indy) - Ran a very strong race in the Gotham, all things considered. He had only a 5 ½ furlong maiden race at Parx for experience, yet despite lacking room on the rail, he persevered to be second best. With that experience under his girth, the Bill Mott trained, and classically bred colt, should be ready to take another step forward. He should be the fourth choice in the Wood, and I like him as much as anyone. Major Player

1 - Tiz Shea D [ML 8-1, Mott/Franco] – Brian, our top choice in the Gotham gained valuable stakes experience with his gutsy second place run up the rail. With more time under his belt in the Bill Mott barn, I expect this talented son of Tiznow to continue to improve. There will be no getting 11-1 this time out, but I like him again in the Wood. Top Choice

2 - Toasting Master (Congrats--Broadway Gold, by Seeking the Gold) - Another colt bred to be a runner, has flashed speed in each of six lifetime starts. He should make his presence felt early from an inside post on Saturday. That’s the good news. In three stakes attempts, he has yet to make serious noise, and this promises to be his toughest test yet. Pass

2 - Toasting Master [ML 20-1, Romans/Arroyo] – This frontrunner is the only definite speed horse in the field. His two career wins were in gate to wire fashion and in the Gotham he led for the first six furlongs only to fade to finish fourth. I would assume that he will not be allowed to run on the lead without some pressure. Pass

3 - Lieutenant Colonel (Colonel John--Lovely View, by Carson City) - On the one hand, I can see why his connections want to give him another shot. After having won his career debut, he did have some early trouble in the Gotham. Still, his last place finish can’t really instill much confidence. I didn’t like him last time, and I like him less this time. El Paso

3 - Lieutenant Colonel [ML 15-1, C. C. Brown/I. Ortiz] – This inexperienced Chad Brown runner is up against it in the Wood. His narrow maiden victory was followed by a last place performance in the Gotham. Maybe he did not like the muddy Aqueduct inner track? Pass

4 - Frosted (Tapit--Fast Cookie, by Deputy Minister) - Long considered a colt with a big upside, he didn’t run badly in two starts at Gulfstream Park, but did not quite live up to his ink either. There is no Upstart in here, which could make his drive for the lead on the far turn look a whole lot stronger in the Wood. Couple that with the fact that many a horse has improved after leaving Florida to come to Aqueduct this time of year (see Wicked Strong last year, for example.) Look for him to sit a good stalking trip under Joel Rosario, and in the thick of things all the way to the wire. Top Pick

4 - Frosted [ML 5-2, McLaughlin/Rosario] – Frosted has been one of many disappointments for what once seemed like a loaded Kiaran McLaughlin barn. Two seconds place finishes in the Remsen and Holy Bull were followed by the fourth in the Fountain of Youth in which he stopped badly when he wore blinkers for the first time. McLaughlin said that Frosted has no excuses to not run his best race. Could he be ready to turn things around? I do not agree with the morning line that makes him second choice and feel like there will be good betting value and that he could be fourth choice. Contender

5 - El Kabeir (Scat Daddy--Great Venue, by Unbridled’s Song)  - What’s not to like? Since running poorly in the slop of the Champagne, he has finished first or second in five consecutive graded stakes. He also showed a new dimension when he came from well back to sweep to victory in the Gotham. It would be no surprise to see him and CC Lopez in the winner’s circle again on Saturday, but I have to wonder if eventually he is going to find a field just a little too tough for him. That could come in his final Derby prep, but more likely, he will be right there at the finish. Major Player

5 - El Kabeir [ML 3-1, Terranova/Lopez] – With this Zayat Stables runner already Kentucky Derby qualified, will trainer John Terranova have him at 100%? I know El Kabeir loves to train and to compete and I hope this feel good story for jockey Chuckie Lopez continues. His versatility will serve him well in a race in which just about any kind of pace could develop. El Kabeir should receive a lot of support from the betting public. Contender

6 - Daredevil (More Than Ready--Chasethewildwind, by Forty Niner)  - I was a little surprised that he was made the morning line favorite, but he does have that big win in the Grade 1 Champagne not too far back on his pp’s. With a failed trip to California for the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, and only one sprint this year, it really is hard to know where he fits with this bunch. I could just as easy see him finish out of the money, as I could see him proving best and winning. Moves up if it’s a wet Wood Memorial. Dangerous

6 - Daredevil [ML 9-5, Pletcher/Castellano] – He has gone from a juvenile phenomenon who earned a 107 BSF in his win in the Champagne to a bit of an emigma after the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile disappointment. His 2015 comeback effort in the 7F Swale Stakes produced a solid second place finish, but still questions remain. Can he handle the nine-furlong distance? Did his first two victories only happen because of an affinity to the wet Belmont Park track? I look for him to run very close to the lead in the Wood. Likely this Pletcher trainee will find plenty of action at the windows. Regardless, Daredevil could pop another big race and I wouldn’t be surprised. Contender

7 - Tencendur (Warrior’s Reward--Still Secret, by Hennessy) - Outside of the big four, this is the one that I gave the longest look. The New York-bred has shown the ability to pass horses in the stretch, which could help his cause in the Wood, but on the other hand, his breeding does not suggest he will get better at longer distances. He also had every chance in the last two New York preps, and was unable to run into the top three. Pass

7 - Tencendur (Warrior’s Reward) [ML 12-1, Weaver/J. Ortiz] – This New York-bred has been a consistent sort with a fourth and a fifth on the New York Derby trail. He would have to make a significant improvement to become a contender in the Wood. Pass