Kentucky Derby 2017: Handicapping Tips from A to Z
As Kentucky Derby 2017 nears, it is time to use all of your handicapping skills to make your decisions about how to bet. Just to make sure that you have uncovered every essential piece of information, I give you my annual list of Derby handicapping tips from A to Z.
A – All-Stakes – On the First Saturday in May there is an all-stakes Pick 5 beginning in race 7 (post time 2:08pm ET) and an all-stakes Pick 4 starting in race 8 (post time 2:59pm ET), Both of these multi-race wagers culminate with race 11 (post time 6:24pm ET), the Kentucky Derby.
B – Beyer Speed Figures – Since the turn of the century the general trend has shown a decrease in BSFs. Monarchos had the highest number of 116 back in 2001 with Nyquist getting a 103 last year. Irish War Cry has recorded two 101 BSFs one in the Wood Memorial and the other in the Holy Bull. J Boys Echo got a 102 in his Gotham victory. Classic Empire ran a 102 in the 2016 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile.
C – Castellano, Javier – Castellano may be the best jockey in North America having won the last four Eclipse Awards as Top Jockey. He wins grade one races with ease all over the country, but he has never won the Derby. In his prior ten tries his best finish came in 2013 when Normandy Invasion ran fourth. Will his choice to ride Gunnevera be a winning one?
D – Dozen – Twelve Kentucky Derby winners were sired by a Derby winner with the last one being Grindstone in 1996, who was sired by Unbridled. That will not change in 2017 because the field has no horses sired by a Derby winner.
E – Eight Big Closers – Only eight Derby winners rallied from last to get the win. The three most recent were: Mine That Bird 2009, Ferdinand 1986, and Gato Del Sol 1982.
F – Final Number – What will be the final number of points needed to get in the Derby field? With the latest defections of two Pletcher possibles, Lookin At Lee gets in with 32 points and Sonneteer secures spot number twenty with 30 points.
G – Gunnevera – Gunnevera will become the 15th horse that ran in the Delta Jackpot and went on to be part of the Kentucky Derby. None of the previous 14 have won the Derby, but Exaggerator in 2016 and Closing Argument in 2002 both finished second.
H – Hundreds – Last year Exaggerator, with a 103 BSF in the Santa Anita Derby, was the only horse to record a BSF in the 100’s in one of the final big 100-point prep races. This year Irish War Cry has that distinction with the 101 he received for the Wood Memorial.
I – Irish War Cry – Irish War Cry will try and become just the third New Jersey-bred to win the Derby. It has been 83 years since Cavalcade won in 1934 and 102 years since the filly Regret took home the Roses in 1915. Dance Floor was the most recent runner from the Garden State and he ran third in 1992 behind Lil E. Tee.
J – Juvenile – Classic Empire goes into the Derby looking to follow in the hoof prints of Nyquist to make it two years in a row that the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner takes the Run for the Roses.
K – Kentucky Derby Day – Hall of Fame jockey Pat Day is the leading rider in the history of Kentucky Derby Day. Day won 28 races throughout his career on the Derby undercard. John Velazquez is second with 20 victories and Julien Leparoux has 16 wins. For trainers, Todd Pletcher leads with 16, Bob Baffert’s 14 is second, and Dale Romans has 13.
L – Last Three Years – The past three years, the Kentucky Derby was won by a horse that entered the race already with $1,000,000 in earnings. In the history of the Derby that has happened only four times: Nyquist, American Pharoah, California Chrome, and Street Sense. In total, 42 millionaires have started in the race with the filly Althea being the first in 1984.
M – Maragh, Rajiv – If you are looking for a feel good story for your $2 hunch bet than go no further then Rajiv. His comeback from very serious injuries in July 2015, came to completion when he won the Wood Memorial with Irish War Cry and secured a chance to ride in the Derby for the fifth time in his career. He finished third in 2011 on Mucho Macho Man.
N – Nine – The last winner to break from the nine-post position and win the Derby was Riva Ridge in 1972. Firing Line finished second in 2015.
O – Oaks/Derby Daily Double – This two-day wager is a good place to look for value. Even with the likelihood that Paradise Woods will be a big favorite in the Oaks, betting her in daily double with some Derby horses could be a way to get a better price on a horse that many see as a very probable winner.
P – Prep Race – It is well documented that the winner of the last six Derbys was victorious in their final prep race and that the past five won a race that is now a 100-point qualifier.
Q – Quite a Finish – Nine times the Derby has been decided with a nose as the official margin. The last time was when Grindstone battled it out with Cavonnier in 1996. Since 2000; however, there has been no need for the photo finish camera with the smallest margin of victory coming in 2005 when Giacomo pulled his big upset.
R - Running Style – I post this chart for racing fans frequently because I believe that running style is the most important factor to consider when handicapping the Derby. I look for this year’s winner to be a horse that comes from off the pace.
S – Superfecta – Remember that $1 is the minimum domination for betting the Derby superfecta and that means there are NOT 10¢ supers available at Churchill Downs. Thus, a super play can get quite costly, but the payouts have been massive in the past hitting six figures three times since 2000. The smallest $1 payout has been $500 the past two years.
T – Trifecta – Those of you that watch HorseCenter and follow my articles about the Kentucky Derby know that my preferred wager is the trifecta. With the field of 20 it is too hard to focus on a single horse so I do a large ticket with the hope of hitting a big payout. One of the horses that I hope will help is Tapwrit, who should be a very good price. I am going draw a line through his bad Blue Grass Stakes and look for a strong closing move from him.
U – UAE Derby – It seems that Thunder Snow will start in this year’s Derby. Although I feel like this Godolphin runner has a better chance than past entries from Dubai, I have decided to pass on Thunder Snow. If he had shipped over sooner than later and had more time to acclimate to the Derby scene I might have thought about his prospects a bit more.
V – Value – Any wager that involves the Derby will provide value because of the 20-horse field. The Derby’s field size provides American bettors a once a year opportunity to make bets that have the potential to produce life changing payouts.
W – Wagering Menu – The full wagering menu for Derby Day is available on Horse Racing Nation by clicking here.
X – (e)Xacta – The Kentucky Derby exacta has produced some payouts ranging from $31 last year to $9,815 in 2005 when Giacomo pulled his 50-1 upset. Playing the exacta does require the larger investments of the Triple and the superfecta.
Y – YouTube – Make sure you use the HRN video Derby resources that are archived on YouTube.
Z – Zero – The following trainers are looking for their first Kentucky Derby victory: Steve Asmussen (0-15), Joe Sharp (rookie), Saaed bin Suroor (0-7), Antonio Sano (rookie), Chad Brown (0-3), Dale Romans (0-7), Mark Casse (0-3), Mike Maker (0-9), Ian Wilkes (rookie), and Jerry Hollendorfer (0-5).