Handicapping the Hall of Fame Vote

There is no other athletic Hall of Fame quite like Thoroughbred Racing’s Hall of Fame. After all, the Racing Hall of Fame is open to man and beast alike and some of its inductees stay active in the sport for many years after they receive their recognition. That’s just the way that it is. Some trainers never retire working successfully into their eighties. Jockeys often ride as long as they physically are able.

This year 11 finalists were announced for the 2017 Hall of Fame vote with five jockeys, three trainers, and three horses. To be eligible, trainers must have had their license for 25 years, while for jockeys, it is 20 years. Thoroughbreds must be retired for five years, and all candidates have to have been active within the past 25 years unless they are eligible through Historic Review. A maximum of four inductees may be chosen provided that they get over 50.1% of the vote.

The winners will be announced on Monday, April 24, and that the induction ceremony will be held in Saratoga on Friday, August 4. That ceremony is a great experience, if you get the chance to attend. I highly recommend it.

I will turn my handicapping skills to the upcoming Hall of Fame vote and rank the 11 finalists from most likely to least likely to be inducted in the Class of 2017.

1) Victor Espinoza will be the leading vote recipient in this year’s ballot, in my opinion. There are only two jockeys with more than one Kentucky Derby victory that are not in the Hall of Fame. They are Espinoza and Mario Gutierrez. Gutierrez is not eligible to be on the ballot for many years. With three Kentucky Derby winners in War Emblem, California Chrome, and American Pharoah, Espinoza won seven Triple Crown races. That translated into two near misses and one completed Triple Crown. His record [8: 3-0-1] on the first Saturday in May is stellar.

2) Javier Castellano will benefit form the very nature of the Racing Hall of Fame system in that he has been the best jockey in the country for the past four years. Recency will go a long way with voters and will make Castellano a first-time ballot winner. He dominates at the very highest level sitting near the top of the money earned, number of wins, and grade one stakes victories lists. He is fifth all-time in career earnings and still only 39 years-old. Although his Kentucky Derby record is all zeros [10: 0-0-0] that is, to some extent, due to his clientele on the First Saturday in May.

3) Goldikova ran only four times in the United States in her career with all four coming in the Breeders’ Cup Mile against her male counterparts. I think that only one horse will make the cutoff this year and that it is between Goldikova and Gio Ponti. Goldikova’s three wins in the Mile were so exciting and impressive and included a match-up with Gio Ponti in 2010. It is not easy to ship to the USA and her Breeders’ Cup record [4: 3-1-0] will, I think, give her the nod over Gio Ponti.

4) Garrett Gomez In his prime from 2006 to 2009 there was no better jockey in the country. He also did not find much success in the Kentucky Derby [10: 0-1-0] In a sense when Chris Antley was inducted into the Hall of Fame it may have made it easier for Gomez. Both of those riders were plagued with substance abuse problems throughout their careers and eventually died from drug related issues.

5) Gio Ponti won three Eclipse Awards and eight grade one stakes. His career earnings of over $6,000,000 rank him 31st all-time in North America. He did finish second in the Breeders’ Cup Mile behind Goldikova and in the Breeders’ Cup Classic he was second to Zenyatta.

6) John Shirreffs won the 2005 Derby with the 50-1 long shot Giacomo but, of course, he is most known as the trainer of the Hall of Famer Zenyatta. During her racing years, Shirreffs was the center of attention in racing. On the other hand, he only has a career total of 464 wins.

7) Mark Casse – I must admit that I was surprised to see Casse’s name listed amongst the finalists and I mean no disrespect when I say that. Casse has been winning races hand over foot for many years, but it is only in the past few that he has broken through and found a new level of success in the Breeders’ Cup with superstars like Tepin. He is already member of the Canadian racing Hall of Fame.

8) Robby Albarado - In baseball, 3,000 hits or 300 wins is usually a benchmark for the Cooperstown, NY, Hall of Fame, although it is not a guarantee. Albarado has eclipsed the 5,000 win mark for a jockey, but in racing that number does not have that same kind of clout. Unfortunately, his Derby record lacks a win [14: 0-1-2] although he lost the mount on the 2011 Kentucky Derby winner Animal Kingdom, when he was injured in a spill three days before the race. I think he is likely to fall short in the voting again this year.

9) Kona Gold won the Eclipse Award for Top Sprinter in 2000 after winning the Breeders’ Cup Sprint that year. He had great career record [30: 14-7-2] with earnings of over $2.2 million, but the sprinting is not a marquee division. Even though I am quite fond of them, Kona Gold will not be an inductee this year.

10) Craig Perret has an impressive resume with 4,400 wins, an Eclipse Award, Breeders’ Cup wins, and Hall of Fame mounts. I loved watching him ride at Monmouth Park. I’m sure he will get some votes, but not enough amongst this group of finalists.

11) David Whiteley won at an amazing 38.7% for his career, 678 out of 2,078. He trained three Eclipse Award winners and broke up Spectacular Bid’s Triple Crown attempt in the Belmont Stakes with Coastal.