Handicapping American interests on Dubai World Cup night

Saturday's Dubai World Cup card at Meydan Racecourse has it all – big purses, big fields, turf and dirt races, and international superstars. The world’s richest day of racing spreads $30 million of purse money over nine races. The day begins with four Group 2 stakes and ends with five Group 1 events. Race 9 is the $10 million Dubai World Cup in which seven of the 10 runners are American-based or have run in the USA.

Of the 112 total horses entered on the day, 18 have American interest. Here is a quick look at the Americans hoping to bring home a piece of the prize money.

Race 1 - $1 million Godolphin Mile (G2)

Economic Model [Chad Brown/Joel Rosario] Economic Model beat Irish War Cry in Gulfstream Park's Hal’s Hope (G3) in February, and that was probably the best win of his career. He’s the only American in this dirt mile. If he progresses, the Chad Brown runner has a good shot. In career-best form.

Race 3 - $1 million Dubai Gold Cup (G2)

Run Time [Mike Maker/Joel Rosario] This son of Gio Ponti is up against some solid international turf stars. It took him 11 tries to break his maiden, but since then he won an allowance and the two-mile Allen Jerkens at Gulfstream, but then could not compete in the Mac Diarmida (G2). Will be a big longshot.

Race 4 - $2 million UAE Derby (G2)

My complete UAE Derby analysis is available here.

Mendelssohn [Aidan O’Brien/Ryan Moore] The Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf winner takes to the dirt where his siblings Beholder and Into Mischief made their marks. That Breeders' Cup victory was against several horses that have found success on the Kentucky Derby trail. European superstar trainer Aidan O’ Brien has expressed question about whether Mendelssohn will get the distance. “Everything has gone according to plan with him,” trainer Aidan O’Brien said. “He won his prep run at Dundalk very nicely and we’re hopeful he can see out the distance as he goes beyond a mile for the first time.” Punches his Kentucky Derby ticket.

Reride [Steve Asmussen/Javier Castellano] American dirt form is the best in the world, so why shouldn’t this son of Candy Ride with his four wins in five starts be a serious contender in the UAE Derby? Last out he won the Mine That Bird Stakes over Runaway Ghost the winner of the Sunland Derby. Has a chance to win it.

Race 5 - $1 million Al Quoz Turf Sprint (G1)

Holding Gold [Mark Casse/Javier Castellano] This Casse runner finished seventh in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint behind two of the Peter Miller runners. He won his season debut at Fair Grounds, but appears to be over his head in this field. In a tough spot.

Stormy Liberal [Peter Miller/Joel Rosario] He won the Breeders’ Cup Sprint over Conquest Tsunami at odds of 30-1. The six furlongs should be ideal for his late stretch run. He's good when he is at the top of his game. Best of the Miller trained trio.

Conquest Tsunami [Peter Miller/Victor Espinoza] Missing for days after the December fires at San Luis Rey Downs, this one is lucky to be alive. He sports a Grade 3 win since then on the Santa Anita downhill course over his stablemate, Stormy Liberal. He will be running fast early on. Has the speed to be a factor.

Richard’s Boy [Peter Miller/Kent Desormeaux] Another fire survivor, Richard’s Boy finished second in the Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint behind Stormy Liberal. He hasn’t won, however, since May of 2017. The six-furlong distance may fit his late running style better. Prefer his stablemates.

Race 6 - $2 million Golden Shaheen (G1)

Mind Your Biscuits [Chad Summers/Joel Rosario] Biscuits will try to win in Dubai for the second year in a row. His last victory came in July in the Belmont Sprint Championship, but at his best he will be dangerous. I still feel that seven furlongs is his best distance. Expect his late run.

Roy H [Peter Miller/Kent Desormeaux] The 2017 Male Sprint Champion and Breeders’ Sprint winner has won six of his last seven races with a second-place finish. Trainer Peter Miller says, “He is doing great. We’re just hoping he will run his race and have a little luck on Saturday. If he does, he should win.” I agree with the trainer. He’ll be tough to beat.

X Y Jet [Jorge Navarro/Emisael Jaramillo] He is on a three-race win streak, although only one of them is graded. The Florida flash will be running on the lead. He was second in this race in 2016. “Everything is good,” Navarro said. “I have done enough with him (before the race) and I’m not going to do anything else. I just want to keep him happy.” Facing the best sprinters here.

Race 9 - $10 million Dubai World Cup (G1)

Gunnevera [(8-1) Antonio Sano/Joel Rosario] The popular colt came out of his Wednesday morning trip to the track with a bruised hoof, which certainly puts a damper on hopes of the Antonio Sano trainee having a break-through victory in the World Cup. With earnings of more than $2.9 million, he has not had a win since August and that was a listed stake. Recent foot problems are worrisome.

Mubtaahij [(16-1) Bob Baffert/Victor Espinoza] With $4.7 million in earnings, Mubtaahij has earned a check in some major races including a fourth and a second in the past two runnings of this race. Cashes another?

Forever Unbridled [(8-1) Dallas Stewart/Mike Smith] The Champion Older Female of 2017 faces the boys for the first time in her career finale. No easy task, but the big mare runs well fresh and will no doubt be making a big closing move in the mile and a quarter race. Trainer Dallas Stewart said, “She’s going to need to bring her best race to win this.” Legitimate chance to win.

Talismanic [(8-1) Andre Fabre/Mickael Barzalona] Last year’s Breeders’ Cup Turf winner has picked a tough spot to make his dirt debut. He is a son of Medaglia d’Oro and then bodes well for his liking the dirt. If he takes to the new surface he could be a threat. Will he like the dirt?

Pavel [(16-1) Doug O’Neill/Mario Gutierrez] Pavel has not won since August at Parx. He has been competitive in some big races since then, but this is a tough spot for the high-strung colt to find the winner’s circle. This field is too tough right now.

West Coast [(1-1) Bob Baffert/Javier Castellano] There’s no Gun Runner in here, which has made West Coast the leader of the older male division -- and rightly so. Another way of looking at it is that West Coast did not defeat older horses in 2017 and last took home the top check in the Pennsylvania Derby in September. The Champion 3-Year-Old is the likeliest winner of the race, and Baffert knows how to get them ready to win in the desert. Will be a big favorite and for good reason.

Thunder Snow [(14-1) Saeed bin Suroor/Christophe Soumillon] We remember Thunder Snow has the horse who lost his mind after leaving the gate in the Kentucky Derby last year. However, the UAE Derby winner went from that debacle to have a good year in Europe hitting the board in several very tough Group 1 and 2 races. Could finish in top three.

Final thoughts

The most likely American winner is sprinter Roy H in the Golden Shaheen. Right now, he is just a lot better than the others, but the USA certainly has a stronghold in the race.

The best value for an American interest is Reride in the UAE Derby. He should be third choice behind Mendelsohn and Gold Town with a legitimate chance to win or to hit the board.