Guest Suite looks to repeat in the Risen Star

The Louisiana Road to the 2017 Kentucky Derby makes its next stop at the Fair Grounds Race Course on Saturday, Feb. 25, for the $400,000 Risen Star. The race, which awards Derby qualifying points, is the first at the higher level of 50-20-10-5. The grade two stakes is headlined by Mo Town and Guest Suite, both already have 10 points to their credit.

The Risen Star will be run as race 11 on a twelve race card with post time scheduled for 6:00pm ET. For wagering purposes this Derby prep is the fourth leg of an all-stakes pick four; which also includes the Mineshaft in race 8, the Rachel Alexandra (G2) as race 9, and the Fair Grounds (G3) on the turf as race 10.

Bet $150, Get $150

 Girvin [Joe Sharp, Brian Hernandez, 2: 1-1-0, $34,400] One of two entered in the Risen Star by Joe Sharp, thus he has the advantage of running where he trains. This Tale of Ekati colt went from a maiden win on the dirt to a second place on the turf in an overnight stake and both races earned the same BSF of 87. Sharp’s plan all along was to use that turf stake as a prep for the Risen Star. He should sit a stalking trip behind his stablemate Cool Arrow. A good performance would not surprise me. Not Impossible Here.

Untrapped [Steve Asmussen, Ricardo Santana, 3: 1-2-0, $86,800] One of two in the Risen Star for Steve Asmussen, who won this race last year with Gun Runner. Untrapped was a closing second to Guest Suite in the LeComte (G3) last time out and figures to improve with valuable experience gained at that level of competition. Trifecta Finish Possible.

Local Hero [Steve Asmussen, Florent Geroux, 3: 1-2-0, $48,200] This Asmussen runner lived up to his name when he blitzed a maiden field to win by open lengths while going two turns at the Fair Grounds. That performance earned a BSF of 89, the highest in this field. Local Hero, who sold for $500,000 as a two-year-old, has been highly regarded at the betting windows in all three of his starts. This son of Hard Spun figures to be one of two to contend for the early lead, but at this level of competition another wire-to-wire performance is unlikely. Top BSF.

Arklow [Brad Cox, Shaun Bridgmohan, 4: M-1-1, $22,287] Although still a maiden, the Donegal Racing runner finished fourth in the LeComte. This field is much deeper than last time and it is unlikely that Arklow will be able to repeat that performance here. Still a Maiden.

Shareholder Value [Tom Amoss, Mitchell Murrill, 6: 2-0-1, $84,950]. Another one coming out of the LeComte, this son of Uncle Mo finished fifth is that Derby prep. Trainer Tom Amoss is winning at his home base at a .27 clip, but as one of the many horses looking to come from off the pace, Shareholder Value may get too far behind in the early going. In a Tough Spot.

  Guest Suite [Neil Howard, Robby Albarado, 5: 3-0-2, $203,840] Guest Suite has gotten better in each of his five career starts and is training smartly after the victory in the LeComte with two quick workouts of 59.40 and 47.80. His only loss in the last four starts was to the Kentucky Derby favorite, McCraken. There is pace in the race to set up his closing move. Although this field is deeper than the LeComte, Guest Suite looms the one to beat. Top Pick.

 US Officer [Danny Pish, Jose Valdivia, 7: 3-0-2, $132,565] He finished third in the $300,000 Springboard Mile in December at Remington Park behind the winner, Cool Arrow. Before that he won two races in a row at the Oklahoma track: the Clever Trevor Stakes at seven furlongs and an allowance at a mile. He has some talent and has been preparing at the Fair Grounds, but the layoff is a big concern. Trainer Pish has over 2,000 victories, but none have come in the graded stakes ranks. US Officer is NOT nominated for the Triple Crown series. Comes From Behind.

  Cool Arrow [Joe Sharp, Gabe Saez, 6: 3-2-0, $282,835] Cool Arrow broke his maiden in a claiming event at Laurel Park as a juvenile and then went to Remington to win the Kip Devile Stakes as the favorite. From there he got second behind Warrior’s Reward at Churchill. His bankroll got a big boost when he won the Springboard at Remington while leading every step of the way making him the leading earner in this field. The Risen Star would be his three-year-old debut and it won’t be easy against the established graded stakes winners in this field. He is also entered in the Southwest, but his connections were leaning towards running Cool Arrow at his Fair Grounds home base, especially with an off-track likely in Arkansas. NOTE: Cool Arrow will run in the Risen Star. Dangerous on the Front End.

Mo Town [Tony Dutrow, John Velazquez, 3: 2-1-0, $243,600] This son of Uncle Mo has picked a tough spot to make his three-year-old debut. The winner of the Remsen (G2) has not run since Nov. 26 of last year. Although I was initially very impressed with his victory in the Remsen, the poor performances of No Dozing and Takaful, the second and third place runners, have made me question the strength of that race. Mo Town will have to show a lot of growth to win the Risen Star off of his three month layoff. Tough Comeback Spot.

Takeoff [Mark Casse, Julien Leparoux, 4: 1-0-2, $53,500] This son of Arch is the third place finisher from the LeComte. Takeoff wanted to be on or near the lead in his last two starts. Breaking from the 10 post is just going to make things tougher for this Mark Casse runner, who will need to hustle out of the gate to keep up with the speed that is to his inside. Tough Draw.

 Sorry Erik [Keith Desormeaux, Kent Desormeaux, 8: 3-0-0, $71,910] Sorry Erik, who was a $75,000 purchase as a two-year-old, was claimed two starts ago for a mere $20,000 from Reddam Racing at Santa Anita by Big Chief Racing of Exaggerator fame. In his first start for his new connections, the son of Wilburn won an allowance with a field of five going a flat mile. With eight starts he is the most experienced runner in the field. Sorry Erik is also NOT nominated for the Triple Crown. Former Claimer.

  Horse Fly [D. Wayne Lukas, Miguel Mena, 6: 1-3-0, $77,629] You have to like the connections of Calumet and Wayne Lukas, but this son of Mineshaft needed six tries to get a maiden win and he did it going 8.5 furlongs at Oaklawn just a few weeks ago. He’s going to be a well-deserved longshot in this full field. A Bomb for D. Wayne.

  It’s Your Nickel [Kenny McPeek, James Graham, 3: 2-0-0, $81,940] This son of Dialed in broke his maiden at Saratoga in his second career start going a mile and a sixteenth on the turf as a 30-1 longshot. He returned to the races at Fair Grounds in January in an allowance and was awarded the first place money after the unofficial winner was disqualified and placed last for interference. He can surely handle the distance, but questions certainly remain about handling graded stakes company. Interesting, But a Big Step Up.

So Conflated [Doug O’Neill, Mario Gutierrez, 3: 2-0-1, $98,640] This Florida-bred son of Eskendereya is the recent winner of the $100,000 California Derby at Golden Gate Fields for the connections of last year’s Kentucky Derby winner, Nyquist. He finished third behind American Anthem in his first start and then was awarded his maiden win at Santa Anita by disqualification. It’s interesting that O’Neill decided to ship to Louisiana when he could have run at Golden Gate again in the El Camino Real, but So Conflated appears to be OK on the dirt. The outside post was a tough draw, but he does run from far back. NOTE: The outside draw has O'Neill likely to scratch in favor of the Gotham.  Will Be Running Late.

SUMMARY

Guest Suite is a likely winner as the favorite. I will be looking for some value in the exacta by not using Mo Town or any of the other LeComte runners. Instead, I will be putting Guest Suite in an exacta key box with Girvin, Local Hero, Cool Arrow, and So Conflated. At the windows or in your ADW account play: Exacta Key Box – 6 with 1, 3, 8, 14 = 8 combinations.