Lady Eli and Sea Calisi headline Flower Bowl

The mile and a quarter $500,000 Flower Bowl (G1), which will be run on the Belmont Park inner turf course, is the final ‘Win and You’re In’ opportunity for the Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf. Lady Eli and Sea Calisi headline the field of six, which is scheduled as race 6 on the Super Saturday card, with post time set at 3:03 pm ET.

The extended weather forecast for the New York area says that Hurricane Matthew should not be a factor with warm and dry conditions expected in Elmont, NY, all week long. Thus, handicappers should plan on FIRM turf conditions.

Ame Bleue (GB) [ML 6-1, Fabre, Peslier, 15: 2-3-2, $159,960] This European import will be making her first start in North America for trainer Andre Fabre, who owns four Breeders’ Cup victories including the greatest upset in the history of the World Championships with Arcangues in the 1993 Classic. Ame Bleue is coming from France in very good form with two second place finishes in graded stakes. She has had success on firm and soft grass while preferring to run from the back of the field. Top French rider Olivier Peslier is named to ride. Note that Ame Bleue will NOT be running on Lasix. Must Be Respected.

Strike Charmer [ML 6-1, Hennig, Castellano, 21: 6-4-3, $632,850] At 27-1 Strike Charmer sprang one of the biggest upsets at Saratoga this summer when she ran by Lady Eli nearing the wire to win the Ballston Spa (G2). The six-year-old got a fraction of 1:09 to set up the greatest win of her career. It does not look like she will get that same kind of pace scenario from this field. Castellano gets on board, but I don’t think lighting will strike twice for Strike Charmer. Not today.

Itsonlyactingdad [ML 20-1, Pletcher, John Velazquez, 10: 4-3-0, $372,150] This Giant’s Causeway filly became a graded stakes winner when she won the Matchmaker (G3) at Monmouth Park in July and she also likes to run from off the pace. She had a troubled start in her last race at Saratoga where she tried the longer distance for the first time in the Glens Falls (G3) and finished seventh. She will be making a significant set up in class against the grade one winners. Pletcher’s number one rider Johnny V. is back on board. Not With These.

Sentiero Italia [ML 5-1, McLaughlin, Rosario, 10: 5-0-2, $834,900] This Godolphin Stable runner was affected by the heated pace in the Ballston Spa and was passed by Lady Eli in the stretch to finish third. The Flower Bowl will be her third start of 2016, so it is fair to assume that she will be ready to run her best. The four-year-old daughter of Medaglia d’Oro always shows up, but this is no small task to beat the likes of Lady Eli and Sea Calisi. Exacta or Trifecta Finish Possible.

Lady Eli [ML 2-1, Chad Brown, Irad Ortiz, 7: 6-1-0, $1,529,800] Lady Eli ran a very courageous race in the Ballston Spa after battling laminitis and being away from the races for more than a year. She won the battle down the stretch with Sentiero Italia, but was overtaken by the pace aided Strike Charmer. Lady Eli was entitled to be tired that day in Saratoga and should be at full strength in the Flower Bowl. She still has to prove that she is the same Lady Eli that we saw in 2014 and 2015 because she will need every bit of that talent to defeat Sea Calisi. I know that most of the crowd at Belmont Park, myself included, will be rooting for her to return to the winner’s circle. My Top Pick.

(As a note, Lady Eli has been entered in the Keeneland November Sale and will go into the ring as hip 466, a racing or broodmare prospect.)

 Sea Calisi [ML 8-5, Chad Brown, Florent Geroux, 10: 4-2-3, $825,513] Trainer Chad Brown has the two best fillies in the race with Sea Calisi and Lady Eli. Since coming to America from France, Sea Calisi won the Sheepshead Bay (G2), finished second in the New York (G2) after a bad start, and took the Beverly D. (G1) in Chicago with a powerful move to pass the entire field of 11. Owner Martin Schwartz and Brown had similar success in 2012 with another French import, Zagora. She went on to win the Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf and the Eclipse Award. It is hard to separate Brown’s two runners on this day. Pace could make a big difference. A Likely Winner.

Summary

There is little doubt that Lady Eli and Sea Calisi are the two best horses in the race and that they will finish one-two. Both of the fillies should be at the top of their game with little to separate them. I see Lady Eli getting the jump on Sea Calisi and on this day that she will have enough left to hold off the closing move of her stablemate. The inner turf course plays more kindly to horses that are closer to the pace. Call me sentimental if you want, but I pick Lady Eli over Sea Calisi. There probably will not be much value in that exacta and the sixth race is not part of the early and late Pick 4’s and 5’s.