Breeders’ Cup Turf 2016 – Top Trainer, Aidan O’Brien

Of all European trainers, Aidan O’ Brien has had the most success in the World Championships with 10 career wins, of which five have come in the Breeders’ Cup Turf. Actually O’Brien ranks third amongst all trainers behind only Hall of Famers D. Wayne Lukas, who has 20 Breeders’ Cup wins, and Bob Baffert with 12. O’Brien stands just above Bill Mott, Todd Pletcher, and Shug McGaughey and their nine victories.

The 47-year-old O’Brien became the private trainer for John Magnier and Coolmore Stud in 1996, and trains at Ballydoyle in Ireland. Since becoming the trainer at Coolmore, O’Brien has won all of the biggest races in Europe many times over, as well as Australia, Hong Kong, and United Arab Emirates. His first Breeders’ Cup starter came in 1998 and his initial victory was in the Juvenile in 2001 with Johannesburg.

O’Brien’s overall record in the Breeders’ Cup stands at 99: 10-13-7 with $17,253,520 in earnings, which also ranks him third. He has been most successful in the Turf where he has half of his Breeders’ Cup wins and his record in the twelve-furlong race is currently 16: 5-2-2.  That is a win rate of 31% and 56% in the money finishes, which is significantly higher than his overall statistics. O’Brien’s five wins is one more than Sir Michael Stoute, and he leads all trainers in the Turf.

O’Brien notched his first two Breeders’ Cup Turf wins in 2002 and 2003 with High Chaparral. The second victory was in the exciting dead heat with Johar when the top three finishers were within a neck of each other at the wire. High Chaparral had a brilliant career record of 13: 10-1-2, with earnings of over $5 million.  The Irish-bred son of Sadler’s Wells raced only twice in North America and both of those Breeders’ Cup victories came on the heels of a third place in the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe just three weeks before our World Championships. O’Brien also picked up two Eclipse Awards with High Chaparral.

In the last five years, O’Brien has won the Turf three times beginning in 2011 when his son Joseph rode St. Nicholas Abbey to victory at Churchill Downs. This Irish-bred son of Montjeu, went into his Breeders’ Cup victory off a fifth place finish in the Arc. The following year St. Nicholas Abbey would try again after running eleventh in the Arc, this time he finished third in the Turf behind the Americans, Little Mike and Point of entry.

Magician was O’Brien’s next Turf winner in 2013. This Irish-bred son of Galileo headed to Santa Anita for the Breeders’ Cup off a 4½ month layoff from a ninth place run in the St. James at Royal Ascot. Ridden by Ryan Moore, Magician closed boldly from last place to defeat the favorite The Fugue.

Last year, O’Brien won the Turf with Found, who became one of only three fillies to ever win the race. Her victory in the Turf at Keeneland was the third start for this Irish-bred daughter of Galileo in four weeks. She followed a ninth place in the Arc with a second two weeks later in the Champion Stakes at Ascot and then went to the Breeders’ Cup. Also ridden by Ryan Moore, she was able to upset the odds-on favorite Golden Horn.

•O’Brien is particularly dangerous with horses that have just run in the l’Arc de Triomphe. That race consistently has one of the most competitive fields of the year for runners in this division. Going from the Arc to the Breeders’ Cup provides class relief for his very talented runners. Two years ago I wrote a blog, Beware of the Arc, that analyzed this angle in more detail.

•Aidan O’Brien is an excellent bet in the Breeders’ Cup Turf.  A $2 win bet on all 16 of O’Brien’s starters in the Turf would have cost $32. His five winners have paid: $3.80, $6.40 (odds of 4.90-1, payout reduced by dead heat), $15.60, $27.00, and $14.80; that is a total return of $67.60. The profit of $35.60 represents an ROI of $4.23, for every $2 bet on O’Brien in the Breeders’ Cup Turf the average return was $4.23.