Breeders’ Cup Distaff at a glance: Projected field, odds and analysis

With the 2017 Breeders’ Cup a mere two weeks away, the $2 million Distaff is likely to draw a field of 10 that includes the best fillies and mares still in training. To be run at a distance of a mile and an eighth on the Del Mar main track, the Distaff is the last of the four Breeders’ Cup races that are offered on Friday, Nov. 3.

Half of the probable field are millionaires, eight of the 10 have a Grade 1 victory in their past performances, and seven will be coming of a win in their most recent start. Only half of these horses have ever run at Del Mar and of them three are winners there.

To help you start thinking about handicapping the Distaff, here is an early analysis of the field with the latest odds that are available from the Wynn Las Vegas. There will be more specific wagering information for you at the New York State of Racing and HorseCenter after final entries are drawn on Monday, Oct. 30. Also check out these five things you need to know before betting the Distaff.

Abel Tasman [LV Odds 3-1 – Quality Road - Bob Baffert – Mike Smith – 10: 6-3-0 - $1,655,060 - Del Mar 2: 1-0-0] Abel Tasman is the leader of the Three-Year-Old Filly division with three Grade 1 wins in a row this year, yet she sits as the likely third or fourth choice in the Distaff. Three-year-olds have won three of the past six runnings of the Breeders’ Cup day one finale. Her performance in the Cotillion raised some serious questions. Her headstrong middle move which worked in the Coaching Club American Oaks at Saratoga backfired at Parx. Abel Tasman is going to have to be a lot move tractable in the Distaff to have a chance to win against the highest level of competition. Will Need Her Very Best Effort.

Champagne Room [LV Odds 15-1 – Broken Vow – Peter Miller – Mario Gutierrez – 7: 3-1-2 - $1,430,600 - Del Mar 3: 1-1-1] How often is a millionaire listed as a 15-1 shot? When your last win was in the Remington Oaks and now you face the best fillies and mares in the country. The Oaks was a solid comeback that said that last year’s Champion Two-Year-Old Filly has some nice wins ahead. However, she has never competed against this level of horse. Short on Experience.

Elate [LV Odds 4-1 – Medaglia d’Oro – Bill Mott – Jose Ortiz – 9:4-3-1 - $770,325 - Del Mar 0: 0-0-0] Of all the horses in the Distaff she comes in as one that has answered her questions. She has no worries about long layoffs or recent races. Her wins in the Alabama and then the Beldame were big time performances. With a bit more improvement, this Mott trainee is a serious threat to win. Mott is the master of the Distaff having already taken down the Distaff five times. She will be ready to run her best. Serious Chance to Win.

Faithfully [LV Odds N/A – Smart Strike – Bob Baffert – Rafael Bejarano – 11: 3-6-1 - $268,600 - Del Mar 2: 0-1-1] – It is not often that you can say that a Baffert horse has no chance in a big race, but Mike Smith does not ride this filly, so that should tell you something. She has virtually no chance to win or probably even to hit the board in the Distaff. Long, Long, Longshot.

Forever Unbridled [LV Odds 9/5 – Unbridled’s Song – Dallas Stewart –Joel Rosario – 16: 7-3-4 - $2,086,880 - Del Mar 0: 0-0-0] Make no mistake about it, I’m a big fan of this horse -- so much that I bet her in England at generous odds before she won the Personal Ensign at Saratoga. I don’t like the long layoff, but in her case Dallas Stewart has done this with her before. Her two victories this year came with powerful, but easy stretch runs. I expect her to make that same move at Del Mar, but she will have to rundown the best of the division. Legitimate Chance to Win.

It Tiz Well [LV Odds 8-1 – Arch - Jerry Hollendorfer – Drayden Van Dyke 10: 5-2-2 - $1,130,840 - Del Mar 0: 0-0-0] Her convincing victory in the Cotillion over Abel Tasman made her a top player in the 3-year-old division along with Elate. Tiz Well’s win flattered Elate and at the same time weakened Abel Tasman’s position. Still in the Distaff, she is probably ranked fourth or fifth at best. She is a very nice filly in a very deep field. Talented, But One of Many.

Mopotism [LV Odds 50-1 – Uncle Mo – Doug O’Neill – Mario Gutierrez - 12: 2-4-1 - $345,200 - Del Mar 2: 0-1-0] Team Reddam/O’Neill is always willing to take a shot in the big races, and they would surely be doing that with Mopotism in the Breeders’ Cup. Beyond a pair of wins, she has placed twice in graded stakes as of late. She has yet to show that she can handle Grade 1 competition, let alone the likes of this Distaff field. This 3-year-old prefers to come from off the pace, but there are many that have a better move than her. In Over Her Head.

Paradise Woods [LV Odds 9-1 – Union Rags – Richard Mandella – Flavien Prat – 6: 3-1-0 - $473,545 – Del Mar 1: 0-0-0] Paradise Woods came back running to romp in the Zenyatta. She has no choice but to go to the lead and be the pacesetter in the Distaff. This will ensure an excellent setup for the stalkers and closers. How close will Stellar Wind stay to Paradise Woods, and what will Abel Tasman’s strategy be? A Fast Front Runner.

Romantic Vision [LV Odds 50-1 – Lemon Drop Kid – Rusty Arnold – Brian Hernandez – 19: 6-4-2 - $610,086 - Del Mar 0: 0-0-0] This five-year-old is in fine form with back-to-back graded stakes victories in the Spinster and the Locust Grove. In the Spinster, she sat in second place and took over the lead when the pacesetter gave it up after six furlongs. She beat Martini Glass, yes, that same Martini Glass who was second to Songbird in the Delaware Handicap in July. I don’t give her much chance to win, but the Las Vegas odds of 50-1 seem generous. In Excellent Form Now.

Stellar Wind [LV Odds 8/5 – Curlin – John Sadler – Victor Espinoza – 15: 10-2-1 - $2,223,200 - Del Mar 3: 3-0-0] There are not enough ways to say that Stellar Wind is the horse to beat in the Distaff. A rough stretch run and a bad break from the gate may have cost her a Distaff win the past two years. Also, she has a 3-for-3 record at Del Mar. Bad luck may be the only thing to stop her again in 2017. John Sadler has changed it up this year by training her up to the Breeders’ Cup, but I’ll be honest; that move concerns me, especially against the likes of Elate, Abel Tasman, and Forever Unbridled to beat. The Favorite and the Most Likely Winner.