Shifman: How to bet Kentucky Derby Future Wager Pool 2

Tiz the Law, who won the Holy Bull (G3) at Gulfstream Park on Saturday, was named the 8-1 morning line top choice amongst the individual betting interests in Pool 2 of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager.

The Holy Bull score was the second victory on the Kentucky Derby trail for the Sackatoga Stable runner. Tiz the Law won the Champagne (G1) at Belmont Park and was third in the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) as a 2-year-old. With 22 Derby qualifying points, he is tied for the top spot with the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner Storm the Court.

Since the qualifying points system was instituted for the 2013 Derby, three horses available to bet in Pool 2 went on to win the Run for the Roses. In 2014, California Chrome paid $63.40 for this round of wagering and $7 on Derby day. American Pharoah then won in 2015 ($23.00, $7.80), and in 2016 it was Nyquist ($17.80, $6.60).

As part of Pool 2 this year, there are 10 new betting interests, which include the Lecomte (G3) winner Enforceable, the Smarty Jones winner Gold Street and Bob Baffert’s flashy debut winner Nadal. 

In the qualifying points era, California Chrome is the only new horse newly added to a Pool 2 to ever win the Kentucky Derby.

Before covering how to bet this weekend, with wagering open from noon Friday to 6 p.m. Sunday, let’s take a look at how the Pool 2 horses performed in the Kentucky Derby over the past seven years.

2019 – Seven horses from Pool 2 made it to the race with Tacitus finishing third. There were 12 new betting interests added, and four of them made it into the gate. The Future Wager exacta included the #24, “All Other 3-Year-Olds,” because the eventual winner Country House did not appear until Pool 3.

2018 – Again, the Future Wager exacta included the field because the Triple Crown winner Justify did not appear until Pool 3. In total, 10 horses from Pool 2 were in the Derby, which included the second, third, and fourth place finishers. There were six new betting possibilities added, and the third-place Audible was one of them.

2017 – The Derby winner Always Dreaming was yet another one who made his Future Wager debut in Pool 3, and that means that the exacta used the All Other 3-Year-Olds interest. Nine from Pool 2 made it to the first Saturday in May with Lookin At Lee getting a place finish. From the 10 new betting interests added to Pool 2, only the 12th-place horse was in the Derby.

2016 – Pool 2 betting interests swept the top four spots in Derby led by the 2-year-old Champion Nyquist. There were 13 new horses added to Pool 2 but only three made it to the race.

2015 – Triple Crown winner American Pharoah was one of 10 Pool 2 betting interests to make it to the Derby field. The nine new horses added to Pool 2 included Firing Line, who finished second and completed a Pool 2 exacta that did not include the field.

2014 – Derby winner California Chrome was one of 14 new individual interests added with seven of them being the only horses to make their way into the starting gate from Pool 2. The Future Wager exacta was completed with a field horse and paid $358.60.

2013 – Orb was yet another Derby winner who did not show up in the Future Wager until Pool 3, which means that once again the field was part of the exacta.

Here are the handicapping takeaways from the Kentucky Derby Future Wager Pool 2 recent history.

• The past three years, the Kentucky Derby winner was not been among the 23 individual betting interests in Pool 2.

This trend is likely to continue. Horses are heading on to the Derby trail with fewer and fewer starts given the bulk of qualifying points won't pay out until later. This means there are plenty of inexperienced colts with questions to answer.

• The list of new betting interests added to Pool 2 is not a place to find the Kentucky Derby winner.

Since the points system started in 2013, California Chrome is the only Pool 2 winner to be one of those new betting interests. Most of the horses are added to KDFW 2 based on a maiden win or after a nice performance in a minor qualifying race. That leaves a lot left to accomplish just to make it to the Derby starting gate

• Use #24 in the Pool 2 Future Wager exacta.

Since 2013, five out of the seven exactas included the field horses in one of the positions -- four times in the top spot and once on the bottom. In those years, the Pool 2 exacta payout ranged from $69.80 to $550.60.

• Play these Pool 2 Future Wager exactas:

With the minimum wager $2, note that all six of these key exacta horses were part of Pool 1...

#2 Authentic, #5 Dennis’ Moment, #9 Gouverneur Morris, #18 Storm the Court, #20 Thousand Words, #22 Tiz the Law with #24 All Others = $12.

#24 All Others with #2 Authentic, #5 Dennis’ Moment, #9 Gouverneur Morris, #18 Storm the Court, #20 Thousand Words, #22 Tiz the Law = $12.