Belmont Stakes 2016: Try the Exacta
In recent history favorites have not fared very well in the Belmont Stakes. Triple Crown winner American Pharoah was the first top betting choice to win the race since Afleet Alex was victorious in 2005. Point Given in 2001 was the only other favorite this century to win the Belmont. The favorites have even had difficulty hitting the top two positions. You would have to go back to Curlin in 2007 to even find a favorite that placed.
With that in mind, it is worth taking a closer look at where the top two Belmont finishers ran their most recent race and the exacta payouts that they produced.
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2015 [American Pharoah* – Frosted] The Triple Crown winner was followed by four horses who went directly from the Kentucky Derby to the Belmont. The $2 exacta, which paid $13.60, consisted of the top two choices in the betting.
2014 [Tonalist – Commissioner] When California Chrome was unable to win the Triple Crown behind two horses that had not competed in either the Derby or the Preakness, former owner Steve Coburn set off on his famous diatribe about new shooters in the Belmont Stakes. The $348 exacta was the top two finishers from the Pater Pan, which was run a week after the Derby.
2013 [Palace Malice – Oxbow] This Belmont exacta consisted of the twelfth place Derby finisher and the Preakness winner and paid $323.50. The Preakness winner, Oxbow, got little respect at windows with the Derby winner Orb going off as a heavy favorite and getting the show spot.
2012 [Union Rags – Paynter] When I’ll Have Another scratched out of his Triple Crown attempt the day before the Belmont this turned out to be another year when a Kentucky Derby runner would win. Paynter completed the exacta after last taking an allowance on the Preakness undercard. The exacta payout was a relatively modest $31.40. Dullahan was the favorite and he finished seventh.
2011 [Ruler On Ice – Stay Thirsty] When the rains came and the Belmont racing surface became very sloppy, the top two choices did not have much success, The Preakness winner Shackleford and the Derby winner Animal Kingdom finished fifth and sixth producing a huge $928 exacta. Ruler On Ice had previously won the Tesio at Pimlico on the first Saturday in May, while Stay Thirsty had last run in the Derby.
2010 [Drosselmeyer – Fly Down] The top two finishers in the 2010 Belmont prepped in the Dwyer in New York. First Dude and Game On Dude got the next two places. Ice Box was the favorite off of his second place in the Derby, but when he disappointed in ninth, this exacta paid $144.50.
2009 [Summer Bird – Dunkirk] Mine That Bird was the 6-5 favorite in the Belmont and he finished third, but the exacta was filled by the sixth and eleventh place finishers from the Derby with a resulting price of $121.
2008 [Da’ Tara – Denis of Cork] Big Brown was the .30-1 favorite, who was infamously pulled on the turn by Kent Desormeaux when he felt that something was not right with the winner of the Derby and Preakness. That meant big balloons in the exacta again, $659. Da’ Tara prepped in the Barbaro Stakes on the Preakness undercard and Denis of Cork came out of the Derby.
2007 [Rags to Riches – Curlin*] In this small Belmont field of seven, the top two betting choices completed the exacta that paid $25.20. Rags to Riches had won the Kentucky Oaks and Curlin was the Preakness winner.
2006 [Jazil – Bluegrass Cat] This Belmont exacta had both runners come out of the Derby, where they finished fourth and second respectively. Bob and John, who finished seventeenth in the Derby, was the Belmont favorite at 4.70-1 and he ended up eighth. The exacta paid $92.
2005 [Afleet Alex* - Andromeda’s Hero] With the Preakness winning favorite taking the Belmont also, the exacta still paid $44. Andromeda’s Hero was a Derby also ran for trainer Nick Zito.
2004 [Birdstone – Smarty Jones*] Smarty Jones fell victim to fast early fractions and faded to second in his bid to become an unbeaten Triple Crown winner. Birdstone, who had last finished eighth in the Derby and was the only runner from that race in the field, was 36-1 and triggered a $139 exacta over the .35-1 favorite.
2003 [Empire Maker – Ten Most Wanted] Only five horses showed up to challenge Funny Cide in his attempt to win the Triple Crown. When the New York-bred gelding finished third, the exacta paid $44. The top two finishers had both run in the Derby and then skipped the Preakness.
2002 [Sarava – Medaglia d’Oro] When 70-1 and 16-1 combined in the exacta in a 12 horse Belmont field, the result was an amazing $2,454 exacta. Sarava had won the Sir Barton Stakes on the Preakness undercard and Medaglia d’Oro was eighth in the Preakness. War Emblem finished eighth as the 6-5 favorite in his try to win the Triple Crown.
2001 [Point Given* – A.P. Valentine] The Belmont result was a duplicate of the Preakness finish and in a field of nine the exacta paid $20.60. On this day Preakness runners took the top four places.
2000 [Commendable – Aptitude*] The Y2K Belmont Stakes exacta was swept by two Derby horses. Commendable, who finished seventeenth on the first Saturday in May, turned the tables on Aptitude, who was second and the Belmont favorite. Their exacta paid $213.
In the 16 most recent editions of the Belmont Stakes only SIX times has the favorite been part of the exacta. Exacta payouts have ranged from $13.60 last year to $2,454 in 2002. The average exacta price in the 21st century is $350. If you have some reservations about Exaggerator, history says he will not finish in the top two spots as the favorite, setting off a likely big exacta.
The exacta positions have been filled by 16 horses who made their last start in the Kentucky Derby, eight from the Preakness, four from the Preakness undercard, four others had run at Belmont Park, and one came out of the Kentucky Oaks.