Pacific Classic 2017 - Arrogate faces seven

Not too long ago, the 2017 Pacific Classic was supposed to be the next stop on Arrogate’s unstoppable winning streak, but then the unexpected defeat in San Diego Handicap came along and the outlook on Saturday’s ten-furlong signature race at Del Mar completely changed.

The $1,000,000 TVG Pacific Classic (G1) is part of the Breeders’ Cup Challenge Series and offers a ‘Win and You’re In’ spot in the Breeders’ Cup Classic, which, of course, this year will be run at Del Mar for the first time. Thus, Saturday’s Classic prep race becomes even more important. Since the Pacific Classic was first run in 1991, the winner has never gone on to victory in the Breeders’ Cup Classic. California Chrome finished second last year, Pleasantly Perfect was third in 2004 while trying to repeat in the Breeders’ Cup, and Bertrando ran second in 1993.

A small field of eight has been drawn to face Arrogate in the Pacific Classic as he looks to return to his winning ways.

Accelerate [ML 3-1 - Hronis Racing - Lookin At Lucky – Sadler – Espinoza – 12: 4-3-3 - $607,480] Accelerate has beaten Arrogate twice. Initially, in Arrogate’s first career start and then more significantly in the San Diego Handicap. Accelerate has a perfect three for three record at Del Mar with his maiden victory as a three-year-old, the Shared Belief Stakes in his next start, and then the recent upset of Arrogate. He has never run beyond nine furlongs, so the mile and a quarter will test his limits. He did finish third behind Collected in the Precisionist. Questions abound for this son of Lookin At Lucky, but he is a contender if Arrogate is not back to normal. Perfect at Del Mar

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Arrogate [ML 1-1 - Juddmonte - Unbridled’s Song – Baffert – Smith – 9: 7-0-1 - $17,102,600] On the surface, it’s pretty simple, Arrogate is the top horse in the world. He is at his best going the mile and a quarter and no else in the field has won going the classic distance. His loss in the San Diego Handicap was strictly an anomaly and, thus, last year’s Three-Year-old Champion will stream roll this field as was expected all year long. It could very well be that easy.

However, it would not be fair to ignore the dismal performance of Arrogate in his last race. To me, it was and still is hard to conceive that Arrogate could be beaten that badly. Is it possible that there was more going on than the fact that he may not have been trained to be at 100% fitness? An Arrogate at 80% should have performed better than he did on July 22nd at Del Mar. Arrogate was sired by Unbridled’s Song and his offspring usually show physical problems during their careers. There has been talk that Arrogate ran in the San Diego like he was not physically comfortable.

Arrogate has breezed three times since his last race. First going four furlongs, then a week later at seven-eighths of a mile, and then most recently another four-panel breeze for his final preparation. “He just cruised around there,” said trainer Bob Baffert. “We’re set (for the Pacific Classic).”

Either way, Arrogate is likely to be very heavily bet, probably not to the extent of the .05-1 odds in the San Diego, but likely closer to .50-1. For betting purposes, it would be very tough to make a win wager under these circumstances. Others might think about trying to beat Arrogate. This just may be an intriguing race to enjoy without much betting on the small field beyond the multi-race offerings. Is Arrogate Still the Best Horse in the World?

Collected [ML 5-2 - Speedway Stable – City Zip -Baffert – M. Garcia – 10: 7-1-0 - $660,500] The four-year-old version of Collected has been perfect. Off since the Preakness, trainer Bob Baffert has gotten three excellent performances out of him this year. His recent win in the Precisionist was fast and strong and Accelerate could not keep up. He is a formidable contender, who is going to play catch me if you can in the Pacific Classic. He has won at nine furlongs this year, but can this son of City Zip carry his front running style over the mile and a quarter?  Baffert says he is running in the Pacific Classic to find out if Collected belongs in the Classic or the Dirt Mile. Catch Him if You Can

Curlin Road [ML 20-1 - R3 Racing, Calara, ERJ racing – Curlin- O’Neill – Prat – 24: 4-3-3 - $231,750] Claimed in April for $40,000, this Doug O’Neill trainee is the recent winner of the Cougar II Handicap (G3) going a mile and a half at Del Mar. In that race, he came from off the pace to defeat Hard Aces by a nose for his first stakes victory. The Pacific Classic is likely to have a much faster pace and that will make things tougher for Curlin Road. A Tough Spot

Donworth [ML 15-1 - Reddam Racing – Tiznow - O’Neill – Gutierrez – 9: 2-2-3 - $347,345] Donworth also beat Arrogate in the San Diego, but he was more than eight lengths behind the winner, Accelerate. This Doug O’Neil runner has not won a race since an overnight stake at Delaware Park in June of 2015. He likes to run near the lead, but is likely to have trouble staying with Collected. In Over His Head.

Hard Aces [ML 20-1 - Hronis Racing – Hard Spun – Sadler – Gonzalez – 42: 8-7-10 - $1,227,990] This seven-year-old millionaire deserves our respect because he just keeps on running well. He was beaten by a nose last out by Curlin Road in the Cougar II at Del Mar. The more distance the better for Hard Aces as he showed when winning the Tokyo City (G3) at Santa Anita in April going twelve furlongs. He is still competitive in graded stakes after 42 career starts. Even though, he has entered the Pacific Classic, he is more likely to run in a turf stake on Saturday instead. Entered to Run on the Turf Also

Royal Albert Hall [ML 30-1 - Twilight Racing – Royal Applause – Mulhall – Nakatani – 27: 2-7-7 - $249,523] This five-year-old began his career racing in Great Britain on the synthetic track at Kempton. He was claimed from Doug O’Neill in his most recent race by trainer Kristin Mulhall. Back in 2015 he was graded stakes placed on three occasions. All but five of his career races have been on the turf. Trying a grade one with the new trainer is quite a shot in the dark. Likely Longshot

Sorry Erik [ML 30-1 - Big Chief Racing – Wilburn – Desormeaux – Desormeaux – 13: 4-1-0 - $169,310] Sorry Erik is a non-stakes winner of four races including his most recent victory of an allowance on the turf at Del Mar. Prior to that he finished fourth in the Ohio Derby (G3) behind Irap and Girvin. He was on Kentucky Derby trail where he was fifth in the Louisiana Derby and seventh in the Risen Star. With his current form, the Pacific Classic is a tall order. Allowance Level Would be Better