Alabama Stakes 2018: Odds and analysis

Midnight Bisou and Talk Veuve To Me headline the 138th running of the Grade 1, $600,000 Alabama Stakes at Saratoga. With the 3-year-old filly division leaders not in the field, the mile and a quarter distance remains a challenge for these runners.

Monomoy Girl will likely run next in the Sept. 22 Cotillion (G1) at Parx, while Wonder Gadot will become the first filly to enter the Aug. 25 Travers (G1) since 1979. Red Ruby, the winner of the Delaware Oaks, popped a splint and is out of training for now. That’s bad news for racing fans, but it’s certainly good news for the field of eight that was drawn for the Alabama.

The list of Alabama winners is filled with talented, classy fillies that were able to handle the challenge of the usual strong fields and the 10 furlongs. In just this decade, those who visited the winner's circle at Saratoga include Elate, Songbird, Stopchargingmaria, Princess of Sylmar, Questing, Royal Delta and Blind Luck.

Here is a look at the 2018 Alabama field with morning line odds by Horse Racing Nation.

Piedi Bianchi [ML 20-1 – Overanalyze – Pletcher/J. Velazquez - 7: 1-2-3 - $244,700] This daughter of Overanalyze was transferred from the barn of Doug O’Neill to Todd Pletcher for her 3-year-old campaign. Last year in California, she broke her maiden in her second start and then ran in graded stakes, getting third in a couple of Grade 1. She debuted at Belmont Park in an allowance, finished third, and now here she is in the Alabama. Asking a lot for second start this year.
 

Eskimo Kisses [ML 10-1 – To Honor and Serve – McPeek/Jose Ortiz - 9: 2-4-0 - $368,935] Eskimo Kisses has been racing in the highest level of this division and she has been finishing behind the top fillies. There's minor relief here, but she has not beaten Midnight Bisou. The daughter of To Honor and Serve does not have a stakes win to her credit, although she has placed in a Grade 1 and 2. A lot will have to go her way to find the winner’s circle, though she should be contending down the stretch. Trifecta finish is likely.

Midnight Bisou [ML 2-1 – Midnight Lute – Asmussen/M. Smith - 8: 4-3-1 - $751,000] The good news for Midnight Bisou is that Monomoy Girl and Wonder Gadot are not in the field, as those are the only horses to beat her in her last three starts. She is the leading money winner entering here with victories in Grade 1, 2, and 3 races and has never run a bad race in her career. She has shown versatility in terms of running style, closing from far back or stalking the pace. Most be respected as the likely favorite.

She’s a Julie [ML 8-1 – Elusive Quality – Asmussen/Santana Jr. - 8: 3-1-1 - $210,530] She was the winner of the Iowa Oaks (G3) at Prairie Meadows in July while tracking the pacesetter. Earlier in the year at the Fair Grounds she was no match for the top of the 3-year-old filly division. Finding class relief in her three most recent starts has made all of the difference. Steps back up the Grade 1 level.

Auspicious Babe [ML 20-1 – Bodemeister – Stewart/Geroux - 3: 2-0-0 - $67,830] This daughter of Bodemeister is lightly raced, with the third start of her career being an allowance victory at Churchill Downs. As a Dallas Stewart runner, she makes you wonder whether she could be his next high-priced surprise. Inexperienced and likely overmatched.

Figarella’s Queen [ML 15-1 – Medaglia d’Oro – Cox/Irad Ortiz - 7: 3-2-1 - $194,215] Trainer Brad Cox will be represented by this allowance winner. Her best finish was a second behind Talk Veuve to Me in the Indiana Oaks (G3). Early in her career she was a frontrunner, but now she can rate. This is by far the toughest field that she has ever faced. This is a tough spot for the Cox-trainee.

Coach Rocks [ML 5-1 – Oxbow – Romans/L. Saez - 11: 2-5-1 - $340,682] This Dale Romans runner has earned a nice chunk of cash with only two wins to her credit. Earlier this year, she burst onto the scene with a big maiden victory followed right away with a win in the Gulfstream Park Oaks (G2). Since then, she finished second behind the talented Red Ruby in her last two starts. Like a few others in here, this may be an easier spot, but a win does not seem likely. Usable in the exotics on the bottom.

Talk Veuve To Me [ML 5-2 – Violence – Brisset/Leparoux - 5: 2-3-0 - $319,400] Trainer Rodolphe Brisset has taken his time developing this talented daughter of Violence. She went directly from a maiden win to finishing second in the Eight Belles (G2) behind the speedy Mia Mischief. Next, in the Acorn (G1) she had the lead, but was overtaken by Monomoy Girl. In the Indiana Oaks she was the best in the field and she showed it with an easy front-running win by more than four lengths. The Alabama seems like a great spot to get a Grade 1 victory. She handled two turns last out, but can she go the mile and a quarter at Saratoga? She has a big chance, but distance questions remain.

Summary: There are several horses in the field that like to run on or near the lead, including Talk Veuve To Me. Carrying that speed for the 10 furlongs on the deep Saratoga track will represent a significant challenge. Regardless, Talk Veuve To Me is the filly in the race that has been getting better and still has room for improvement.

Meanwhile, Midnight Bisou seems to be getting an ideal setup and is certainly the class of the late runners. With horses that have beaten her as of late are not in the race, this is her chance to strike again at the Grade 1 level.