2017 Pegasus World Cup Analysis

The inaugural $12,000,000 Pegasus World Cup Invitational features the much-awaited rematch of the two best dirt horses in the world, California Chrome and Arrogate. Arrogate is the 2016 Three-Year-Old Champion and California Chrome is the two-time Horse of the Year of 2014 and 2016. In his final career start Chrome looks to avenge his Breeders’ Cup loss to Arrogate and at the same time a victory would end his career with earnings at an amazing record total of $21,502,650. Arrogate on the other hand will continue to race in 2017 and, recently his owners said, possibly in 2018.

It is interesting to note that one of the conditions of the Pegasus concerned medication, “Horses running without Lasix allowed 5 lbs.” Out of the 12 entries and the three also-eligibles, only Eragon will benefit from that weight allowance. The McIngvale/Wohlers connections very specifically looked to fill their spot in the Pegasus with a horse that could run free of medication. They had hoped that Runhappy would be that horse and he, too, would have run without Lasix. Eragon will race with 119 pounds while the rest of the field is assigned 124.

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Right up front I will say that post-position is usually not one of the major factors when I handicap. Much has already been said about the bookend post-position draw for Arrogate and California Chrome. The two best horses in the world should be able to overcome any spot in the starting gate. The talent of these horses is the most significant factor in this race and they are two extremely gifted thoroughbreds. If you feel strongly about post-position in the Pegasus, then so be it.

Please note that as of this writing the Horse Racing Nation poll, which has had over 1,000 picks already, has Chrome as the 3-5 favorite, Arrogate is an 8-5 second choice, Keen Ice is 16-1, and Shaman Ghost is 27-1.

1) Arrogate (ML 7-5) [Juddmonte – Baffert – Smith – 6:5-0-1 - $4,084,600] What will Mike Smith do at the start from the one hole? Will he hustle Arrogate out of the gate or will he be content to let the speed battle it out and settle his horse in a nice stalking position? Either way, Arrogate will be on the rail with a ground saving trip likely. I expect to see Smith trying to have a trip similar to the Classic. I am also not concerned about the timing of Arrogate’s arrival at Gulfstream. This has been Baffert’s way with most big races. To me this is another non-factor. California Chrome has been my pick in every race this year, including the Classic, but he will not be in the Pegasus. The ease with which Arrogate won the Classic has forced me to change my mind. The change in distance does not affect my pick. Top Choice.

2) Prayer for Relief (ML 50-1) [Zayat and Rosedown – Romans – Geroux – 45: 8-6-10 - $2,027,948] Nice career for this nine-year-old, even though he has not won a race since the Tenacious Handicap at Fair Grounds in Dec. 2013. At his best in 2011, Prayer for Relief was a grade two stakes winner. I cannot see any scenario where he finishes in the top four based on his last two races in which he did no running at all. No Chance.

3) Neolithic (30-1) [Starlight Racing – Pletcher – J. Velazquez – 7:2-3-0 - $109,028] Neolithic is a recent allowance winner at Gulfstream Park, which is where he also broke his maiden. He appears to be talented, but the Pegasus is an overwhelming step up in class compared to the top two and a big move up to compete with the second tier horses. He is a possible early pace factor in the race, but I don’t see him having an impact at the finish. Mid-Pack Finish Likely.

4) Noble Bird (25-1) [Oxley, Mack, Fostock, Broman – Casse – Leparoux – 20: 7-4-0 - $1,069,945.  I must admit that I like the enigmatic nature of Noble Bird. When he is good, he is very good, a grade one winner for that matter. However, when he is bad he is a non-contender. Traffic or bumping at the gate often brings out the bad Noble Bird. The good Noble Bird will be a significant pace factor in the race, which would impact the running of the race. Either way, I’m not sure if he will be a player in the stretch run. Could he hang on for third or fourth place at best? Unpredictable.

5) War Story (50-1) [Looch Racing, Ellis – Navarro – Gallardo – 17: 4-3-2 - $559,395] His most recent win in the Queens County at Aqueduct is his only stakes victory and he won that race on the front end. That running style will not work for him in the Pegasus. He has closed in the past going a distance of ground and Gallardo will need to employ that tactic if he is going to have a chance to break into the superfecta. Keep in mind that all finishers after third will receive the same $250,000 check, so there is not much reason to care about that fourth place finish. Superfecta Finish Possible?

6) War Envoy (50-1) [Ruis Racing – Ruis – L. Saez – 21: 2-3-4 - $235,970] War Envoy is a stakes winner of 2015, on the turf, at Ascot. He has had very little success on dirt. His best American finish was a second place on the turf at Tampa in Dec. 2015. Clearly, this one is outclassed, but will allow Ruis to collect a quarter million. Outclassed.

7) Shaman Ghost (20-1) [Stronach – J. Jerkens – J. Ortiz – 13: 6-1-2 - $1,339,311] At the top of the second-tier of horses, Shaman Ghost is a definite contender for the $1,000,000 third place check. A repeat of his victory in the Woodward makes him possible for second should one of the top two not be at their best. He broke his maiden at Gulfstream in March of 2015, which is the last time that he ran in Florida and that is another plus. Top Four Finisher.

8) Semper Fortis (50-1) [Reddam Racing – O’Neill – Gafflione – 12: 2-4-2 - $179,405] In the HRN poll Semper Fortis is 194-1 and I don’t disagree. He is graded stakes placed in the 2016 Los Al Derby, but he also broke his maiden in a claiming event. In this field, then replaced by Ralis, then finally back in at the last minute, does not make for a strong endorsement. Very Longshot.

9) Keen Ice (12-1) [Donegal Racing, R. Frankel – Pletcher – Castellano – 19: 2-2-5 - $2,387,245] Keen Ice has made noteworthy improvement since the change to the Pletcher barn. Castellano seems to get the best from him, as the Eclipse Award winning jockey was up when he upset American Pharoah in the Travers. He is the morning line and our poll third choice. Although no competition for the favorites, he has a legitimate chance to finish third. The Third Choice.

10) Breaking Lucky (25-1) [Gunpowder Farms, West Point Thoroughbreds – Baker – L. Contreras – 16: 3-4-3 - $612,376] Breaking Lucky is the winner of the grade three Seagram Cup at Woodbine and most recently finished second in the Clark Handicap behind Gun Runner. He was also just a neck behind Shaman Ghost in the Woodward. Breaking Lucky is an improving five-year-old who is definitely a contender amongst the second tier runners in here. Involved to the End.

11) Eragon (ARG) (50-1) [James McIngvale – Wohlers – Prado – 20: 10-1 -2 - $250,993. It is only fitting that this six-year-old from the connections of Runhappy is a bit of a mystery horse. It is hard to know how his impressive Argentinian form will translate to an American grade one. He is a deep closer that figures to have plenty of pace to help set things up for him. Eragon definitely has a chance to pass tiring horses and hit the top four. Will be Running Late.

12) California Chrome (6-5) [California Chrome LLC – Sherman – Espinoza – 28: 16-4-1 - $14,502,650] With the draw of the far outside post, there is little doubt that Espinoza will be gunning Chrome out of the gate. Overall, that’s a good thing because that has always been the jockey’s preference. How much pace pressure will Chrome face? That will depend on which Noble Bird shows up. In any case, the Horse of the Year is much better than any horses that figure to be in contention early. In the end it will be up to Chrome to hold off the run from Arrogate.

SUMMARY

If you believe that the Pegasus is a two-horse race between Chrome and Arrogate then I would say that your only wagering option would be the Pick 4 or the Pick 5. Betting either to win or boxing the top two is a futile battle against the takeout. Save your money and just enjoy the rematch.

If you think that one of the top two just might be vulnerable and could finish third or even out of the trifecta, then you have options to consider. Look at the exacta prices with your choice of either Arrogate or Chrome on top. You can also do thing same with the trifecta, placing a second tier horse between Arrogate and Chrome or Chrome and Arrogate. Of course, if one of the big two wins and the other misses the trifecta, then the payout would be much improved.

I picked Arrogate to win and believe Chrome will finish second!! However, I will look at the exacta prices without Chrome and probably play a trifecta ticket that does not include Chrome. That is Arrogate with all the second tier horses.

1 with 2, 5, 7, 9, 10, 11 with 2, 5, 7, 9, 10, 11 = 30 combinations