Kentucky Derby 2016: Nyquist is the Key

With the 2016 Kentucky Derby less than three weeks away, the final field will be determined as owners and trainers make their final decisions and horses drop out due to illness or injury. At this point, I think we know enough about the horses to talk about the way this year’s Run for the Roses will play out and, to me, Nyquist is the key horse.

The question that has been asked about Nyquist throughout his career will finally be answered on the First Saturday in May; can he get the distance? People have been asking that question about the Doug O’Neill trainee since he was a two-year-old. So far, Nyquist has answered that in every single instance. In the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and in the Florida Derby, the son of Uncle Mo emphatically said yes I can handle two turns and yes I can go a mile and an eighth. The ten furlongs of the Kentucky Derby still remains for the entire field of 20.

Either way, Nyquist will enter the starting gate as the favorite and his performance will ultimately determine the shape the of this year’s Kentucky Derby.  With that in mind let’s use a few of the most recent Derbys to illustrate the way the race will play out on May seventh.

If, in fact, Nyquist has no distance limitation, he should be able to use his tactical speed to increase his chance of working out a good trip to stalk the pacesetters and pounce as they tire down the long Churchill Downs stretch. Thus, Nyquist’s winning Kentucky Derby performance could very much resemble the 2014 victory of California Chrome.  In the race replay you will be reminded of the Chrome’s win and the fact that the next three finishers came from the clouds with big closing runs.

The 2016 Derby will have enough horses that want to run on or near the lead and quite frankly the only one that I think as a legitimate chance going the ten furlongs is Nyquist. I expect that there will be a brisk pace in the year’s race and that it will be a daunting task for most of the early leaders to have much run left in the final furlong. Should Nyquist fail to get the distance then this year’s Run for the Roses will probably resemble the 2013 Derby, which was won by Orb.

Remember what happened three years ago; the first five finishers made big closing moves from the back of the field and the five early pace setters ended up being beaten very badly. I don’t expect a rogue front runner like Palace Malice, but the final result could very well be similar.

A third possibility is that Nyquist runs a tremendously strong race staying close to the lead throughout and gets run down in the final strides, much like what happened to Pioneerof the Nile in the 2009 Derby. Pioneerof the Nile stayed within a couple lengths of the early fractions and then was passed by Mine That Bird. I really don’t expect Nyquist to be on the lead as he was in the Florida Derby, but he won’t be too far behind.

I do believe that Nyquist is the only horse that can be picked to win this year’s Kentucky Derby with any reasonable level of confidence. Beyond Nyquist there are several horses that have the come from behind style that is so desirable in the Run for the Roses, but picking out one of them above the others would be a daunting challenge.