2016 Breeders’ Cup Turf: Odds and Analysis

The $4,000,000 Breeders’ Cup Turf, which is second richest race at the World Championships, has attracted 17 pre-entries. Flintshire leads the American based horses and heads the field as the likely  morning line favorite.

This will mark the ninth time that Breeders’ Cup Turf will be run at Santa Anita and over the years the hard and fast California grass course has favored the Americans. The mile and a half usually has a fast early pace due to the turf conditions and the fact that the beginning of the race goes over the downhill chute.  This year the pre-entries favor the Americans 10 to 7, while in the win column the USA holds a 5-4 edge over the rival European invaders.

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Several of the horses are cross-entered and showing a first preference in another Breeders’ Cup race, thus when the field is finally loaded in the gate on Saturday, the three also-eligibles are likely to be starters. Probably only four of the seven Europeans are going to run in this race. The Turf is carded as race 9 on Saturday’s card between the Juvenile and the Filly and Mare Sprint. Final entries and post-positions will be drawn on Monday afternoon.

Horses are listed in order, based on HRN's projected odds.

Flintshire – 2-1 [23: 8-11-1, $8,909,910] Flintshire ranks seventh all-time in earnings amongst horses that have started in North America and second to only California Chrome amongst active runners. It is no secret that this Chad Brown trainee loves the hard firm turf tracks of North America. In 2014, Flintshire finished second to Main Sequence in the Breeders’ Cup Turf the last time the race was run at Santa Anita. On that day it was a rare occasion when the turf was rated GOOD. A ‘Win and You’re In’ entrant based on his victory in the Sword Dancer at Saratoga, he should have perfect conditions. Everyone will dismiss his loss on the soggy Belmont Park grass in the Turf Classic and his explosive turn off foot should be expected at Santa Anita. The One to Beat.

Found – 3-1 [20: 6-11-2, $7,250,405] The winner of last year’s Breeders’ Cup Turf is second preference for this race with a run in the Classic expected. Having won the world’s premiere turf race, the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe in the beginning of October, trainer Aidan O’Brien has set his eye and Found on the $6,000,000 purse of the Classic. Should O’Brien have a change of heart, Flintshire will loom as a most serious threat to Flintshire, although an Arc winner has never won the BC Turf. Likely Classic Bound.

Highland Reel – 4-1 [18: 6-5-1, $5,100,647] Out of the four horses Aidan O’Brien has entered here, Highland Reel is the only one likely to start in the trainer’s quest for his sixth win in the Breeders’ Cup Turf. Most recently he ran second to his stablemate Found in the Arc and it is non-winners of the Arc that have been most successful when they run in the Turf. His only win of the year at Ascot got him a ‘Win and You’re In’ spot in the field. His earnings of over $5,000,000 point out the top quality competition that he has faced. Highland Reel has a legitimate chance to win this race and is likely to be second choice amongst the starting field. A Serious Threat to Flintshire.

Ectot – 12-1 [14: 7-2-1, $840,010] This Todd Pletcher trainee relished that soft turf at Belmont Park when he took the Joe Hirsch Turf Classic wire to wire to upset Flintshire and earn a ‘Win and You’re In’ spot in the field. He had a very good record in Europe before making his first start in the States in August. After winning the Turf Classic, Pletcher joked about the unlikely chance that his horse would get the same kind of grass conditions at Santa Anita. He will also face a much deeper and classier field. Much Tougher Competition Here.

Seventh Heaven – 12-1 [8: 4-0-0, $592,021] From the O’Brien barn, this three-year-old daughter of Galileo, who beat Found in a grade one at York in August, is listed as first preference for the Filly and Mare Turf. She has never run against the boys and will likely be the second choice behind Lady Eli in that race. Headed to Filly and Mare Turf.

Erupt – 15-1 [12: 5-1-1, $1,257,485] This French-based runner made his North American debut a winning one when he upset a very strong field in the Canadian International at Woodbine. Run on a firm course, the pace was turtle-like. He would need to take a full six seconds off that final time to be competitive with the Santa Anita 12-furlong times. Still he got a 105 BSF for the victory. As mentioned earlier the pace here will be fast, probably too fast for Erupt. Trouble Keeping Up.

Mondialiste – 15-1 [22: 5-5-5, $1,726,374] Although Mondialiste was entered in the Turf as second preference, trainer David O’Meara is now leaning towards running in this spot and skipping the Mile, which has drawn a very deep and talented field. This six-year-old has done the best running of his career in North America. Last year he ran second behind Tepin in the Breeders’ Cup Mile and this year he won the Arlington Million, which is a ‘Win and You’re In’ race. There are concerns about the mile and a half being too long, but I like O’Meara’s decision. I expect Mondialiste to be making a big late move to be a threat. Strong Late Move Expected.

Ashleyluvssugar - 15-1 [17: 8-2-3, $847,504] Another of the ‘Win and You’re In’ qualifiers after winning the Del Mar Handicap, this Peter Eurton trainee faces a serious class test. The five-year-old is a very solid horse amongst grade two competition, but he has never faced these kind of turf stars. Not with These.

Da Big Hoss - 15-1 [21: 12-1-3, $1,551,696] Claimed for $50,000 by trainer Mike Maker, Da Big Hoss has turned into a winning machine and is currently on a four victory streak. He has no grade one wins to his credit, but the longer the race the better for this son of Lemon Drop Kid. He is known for a powerful closing move, but with the pace expected he could get too far behind. There will be plenty of betting value. Big Value for Exotics.

Money Multiplier – 20-1 [14: 3-6-1, $613,917] Money Multiplier hails from the Chad Brown barn and often that is enough said. He gets little respect because he has been in the shadow of Flintshire this summer. My HorseCenter partner says that Money Multiplier is much better than people know. Zipse is often correct about these things and that makes Money Multplier the kind of longshot that could make a trifecta payout very healthy. Another Trifecta Possibility.

Ulysses – 20-1 [6: 2-2-0, $102,006] Only a three-year-old, Ulysses is the most inexperienced horse in the field with only six starts. He also lacks a victory beyond the grade three level. The biggest plus for yet another son of Galileo is that his trainer Sir Michael Stoute has won the Breeders’ Cup Turf four times. Not Against These.

Metaboss – 30-1 [12: 3-2-2, $300,420] Best thing that can be said about Metaboss is that he finished a nose behind Ashleylussugar in the Del Mar Handicap, however he digressed next time out. His most recent win came in an allowance race. Not of Breeder’s Cup Quality.

Pretty Perfect – 30-1 [10: 3-2-0, $206,624] The last of the Aidan O’Brien quartet has the Filly and Mare Turf as first preference. This three-year-old filly has never run on a firm turf, so maybe the Santa Anita grass will move her up. Filly and Mare Turf Likely.

Texas Ryano – 30-1 [16: 4-3-3, $278,355] Currently listed as the first also-eligible, Texas Ryano is likely to make the field. The son of Curlin has been a regular in the SoCal grade two and three events and he has never won at that level. Not Good Enough.

Twilight Eclipse – 30-1 [36: 8-5-11, $2,091,653] He’s back for his fourth consecutive try in the BC Turf. In 2013 he finished sixth, third in 2014, and eighth at Keeneland last year. As a $2,000,000 winner Twilight Eclipse deserves our respect. He will be grinding it out at the end and a third place finish would be noteworthy. Respect for the Old Pro.

Ralis – 50-1 [15: 2-4-0, $424,428] Ralis is also-eligible number two and is probably going to make the field. Doug O’Neill has had him racing at tracks all over the country this year as a sophomore with three second place finishes in eight starts. This one seems to be deserving of his morning line odds. Doesn’t Belong Here.

Win the Space – 50-1 [14: 3-1-4, $292,572] After all of the preferences play out, this number three also-eligible will probably make the race. He has only one turf win and that was his maiden special weight victory. Recently, he ran third in the Awesome Again behind California Chrome and Dortmund. Runs Best on Dirt.