2015 Kentucky Derby: Charting Wagering Success

With the 2015 Kentucky Derby prep races complete, it is time for racing fans to turn their attention to handicapping the Run for the Roses. The Derby is unique in our country, and one need not go beyond the 20 horse field, and the ten furlong distance, to know that. There is no other race that has so much information available to use, to not only pick a possible winner, but to also decide on a betting strategy. In reality you cannot make sense of all that information. To be successful betting the Derby, a handicapper must decide which factors are most important and in which bets to partake.

For me, the most important handicapping factor is that historically the best running style in the Derby is to come from behind. Since 2000, the Derby has been won by six Deep Closers, defined as having been behind by more than 10 lengths; five Stalkers, never more than four lengths behind; three Closers that trailed by 4 to 10 lengths; and one single frontrunner in War Emblem in 2002.

It is safe to say that horses on or near the lead in the first half mile of the Derby, usually end up at the back of the pack and vice versa. Orb’s victory in 2013 was a great example. The top five finishers that year were in 16^th, 15^th, 17^th, 12^th, and 18^th after the first four furlongs and the early leaders ended up in the back of the pack. Last year aside from California Chrome, the next three places came from 18^th, 9^th, and 12^th positions. In 2012, when I’ll Have Another won, Bodemeister was the only horse in the top seven that was closer than seventh place after the first half mile. Year after year this is what happens in the Derby.

A very strong final prep race has also been an indicator of Kentucky Derby success. In nine of the past 15 years the winner on the first Saturday in May had a victory leading directly to the Derby. Four others finished second in their last prep race. Mine That Bird and Giacomo were both fourth prior to the Derby and their victories came at odds of 50.60-1 and 50.30-1 respectively. In 2012, the top three finishers I’ll Have Another, Bodemeister, and Dullahan had all won their grade one tune-ups.

With every possible horizontal and vertical bet available on Derby day, each bettor needs to figure out which type of wager fits their style and will give them the best chance of making money. In recent years the trifecta has become my wager of choice for the Derby. Since the year 2000 the favorite has only hit the board eight times and when it has happened big trifecta payouts have still happened. Last year California Chrome won the race as the 2.50-1 favorite and the $2 trifecta still paid over $3,400.

Fortunately the trifecta wager is now a 50¢ base wager, which makes it cheaper to put together the large kind of tickets that are required to hit a trifecta in the 20 horse field. Last year I was successful and had a 50¢ triple that paid just shy of $900, but it took a $90 ticket to hit it. Basically, I used four key horses including California Chrome and Danza with a lot of other horses to be able to catch the 37.80-1 second place finisher in Commanding Curve.

When putting the trifecta ticket together, I focused on my two favorite Derby angles that I discussed earlier. I used horses with the right running style, like Commanding Curve, who was a Deep Closer and came from a distant 18^th place. Danza and California Chrome came from my other angle; both had shown their talent in their final prep race. Chrome had won the Santa Anita Derby and Danza took the Arkansas Derby.

Now is the time to figure out how you want to bet the Derby and how you want to select your horses. There is just too much excitement on the first Saturday in May to make those kinds of decisions. So do your homework now and formulate a wagering plan and you will be on your way to cashing some big tickets on the 2015 Kentucky Derby.