2014 Kentucky Derby: My Futures are Not So Bright
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For the most part I am a
pretty good handicapper. I can pick winners now and then. I understand my
strengths and weaknesses as a handicapper and thus I have started to focus on
certain wagers and with that I have tried to improve the ways that I construct my
tickets. As a result I am off to my best year ever having already cashed three
nice sized horizontal wagers, when in 2013 I did not collect a single “signer”.
I am also like a lot of
handicappers in that I enjoy having the action that goes with betting and that
is why I make Kentucky Derby Futures wagers. I don’t bet very much because I
recognize the difficulty of cashing one of these bets, but I try, because it is
fun.
This year I made a total
of $34 early Derby bets and at this time it is clear that my futures are not
so bright, since I have only $14 worth of tickets that are alive. The good news
is that if I get lucky and cash any of those bets I will turn a profit.
For the 2014 Derby, Pool 1
ran at the end of November during the 2013 two year-old season. Since it now
looks like Cairo Prince will make
the field I still have a 26-1 wager that is alive. However, I have torn up my ticket on Honor Code.
Pool 2 closed on February
8, just before the running of the Robert B. Lewis at Santa Anita. Here I made 8
different win bets for a total of $22. Still alive is a $2 bet at 32-1 on Candy Boy, which was a good wager at
the time because he did win the Lewis, and two bucks at 69-1 on Intense Holiday. I like this bet because
I like the running style of Intense Holiday even though he fell short in the
Louisiana.
Tear up Pool 2 win tickets
on: Commissioner, Havana, Matterhorn, Strong Mandate, Tonalist, and Top
Billing.
I did not make any wagers
in Pool 3, which closed on March 1, just before the Gotham. This should show
that I am not completely lacking in discipline as a bettor.
In Pool 4 I made $1 exacta
boxes: Cairo Prince, Candy Boy, Hoppertunity, and Intense Holiday with the
mutuel field. I lucked out here and got my current top Derby selection of Wicked Strong in that field. The $1
exacta payouts range from $71.30 to $189.90.
Here is my $14 worth of
live Futures bets.
$2 win: Cairo Prince (Pool
1) = $54
$2 win: Candy Boy (Pool 2)
= $66
$2 win: Intense Holiday
(Pool 2) = $140
$1 exacta (Pool 4): Cairo
Prince/field = $71.30
$1 exacta (Pool 4):
field/Cairo Prince = $69.90
$1 exacta (Pool 4): Candy
Boy/field = $151.40
$1 exacta (Pool 4):
field/Candy Boy = $132.00
$1 exacta (Pool 4):
Hoppertunity/field = $120.20
$1 exacta (Pool 4):
field/Hoppertunity = $106.40
$1 exacta (Pool 4):
Intense Holiday/field = $189.90
$1 exacta (Pool 4):
field/Intense Holiday = $152.10
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