2014 Kentucky Derby: Evaluating the Futures Performances

 

Did you invest in the 2014 Kentucky Derby Future Wager Pool 2? Let's take a look at how 11 of those Future bets have performed in the two weeks since the closing date of Feb. 8.

 

 

Intense Holiday out performed his KDFW Pool 2 odds of 69-1 with his determined closing run to win the Risen Star at the Fair Grounds Race Course where he was 5-1. In addition he picked up 50 Road to the Derby points, which means he definitely has a place in the Derby field. Anyone that played this Todd Pletcher trainee in the Futures is entitled to have the biggest smile on their face and right now I am smiling.

 

Tapiture won the Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn Park at odds of 5.5-1. His closing odds in Pool 2 were 38-1. This Tapit colt earned a 98 BSF for trainer Steve Asmussen. Tapiture now has 22 Derby points and, based on last year’s points, this should easily put him in the field.

 

On the same day that Pool 2 closed Candy Boy won the Robert E. Lewis at Santa Anita. In Pool 2 he closed at 32-1 and an hour or so later he was 2.3-1 when he won his Derby prep race for John Sadler and Gary Stevens.

 

 

Commissioner was one of the top choices in the KDFW 2 at odds of 22-1. He had a lackluster performance to finish sixth in the Fountain of Youth on a track that was probably not to his liking. This Pletcher horse will next start away from Gulfstream Park. He will need to show a lot more at that time.

 

Rise Up the winner of last year’s Delta Jackpot was bet to 47-1 in Pool 2. In his 2014 debut in the Risen Star he finished seventh at odds of 4.3-1.

 

Matterhorn was made an individual betting interest in Pool 2 off only a November 2013 maiden victory at Aqueduct. His 10^th place finish in Saturday’s star-studded OC allowance at Gulfstream did little to enhance his 63-1 Future Pool odds. This Pletcher runner now seems unlikely to make the Derby field.

 

 

With four horses amongst the 23 investment possibilities in Pool 2, it should come as no surprise that trainer Todd Pletcher had the top and bottom performers in this very difficult market to predict.

 

The other five horses that have run in the last two weeks all finished with creditable second or third place finishes and solidly remain on the Kentucky Derby trail.

 

If you bet a few dollars on the top performers you should enjoy it now because the toughest things about this investment are that there is lots of racing left to go and that it doesn't pay off until the first Saturday in May.

 

If you bet on the worst performers you have another opportunity to play the futures as KDFW Pool 3 opens on February 27 and runs until March 1.