2014 Breeders’ Cup Turf: Misconceptions

 

The 2014 Breeders' Cup Turf marks the eighth time that the race will be run at Santa Anita. This means that there is plenty of history on which handicappers can rely when they try and pick a winner in this year’s twelve-furlong contest. Let’s begin the discussion by clearing up some misconceptions that might easily cloud your decision making process.

In the chart below I have put together a good deal of information that I hope will help you pick a winner in the Turf. I have used that chart to try and clear up what I see as four misconceptions. (Please keep in mind that even though 2014 will be the eighth time on the turf at Santa Anita that there are already eight different winners because of the dead heat in 2003 between High Chaparral and Johar.)

That statement may be true about some turf races at the Great Race Place, but it sure isn’t true about the mile and a half Breeders’ Cup Turf. Not a single one of the eight winners of the Turf won in gate to wire fashion. Little Mike came the closest, but even he stalked the early pace by sitting two to three lengths behind the lead for the first mile.

What the firm and hard turf has ensured over the years is a fast and/or contentious early pace, which makes it easier for horses to come off the pace to win.

Watch Magician win the 2013 Turf where the early fractions were :24.02, :46.94, and 1:10.67. In the end the top four finishers of the race were in 11^th, 7^th, 8^th, and 10^th in the early going.

 

Overall at Santa Anita, five winners of the BC Turf were closers and the other three were stalkers. Some of the closers came from dead last and others were well over ten lengths behind the lead. What is most significant is the strong early fractions that lead to very fast final times for the twelve furlongs.

The results at Santa Anita are dead even with four winners from Europe and four from the United States. Yes, it is true that the Euros have won three of the last four at Santa Anita, but two of them were by Conduit in his back-to-back victories in 2008 and 2009.

Although all seven of the Breeders’ Cup Turf editions that were run at Santa Anita came on a firm grass course, there is always the chance that there could be rain. Please keep in mind that the most successful European trainers like Sir Michael Stoute and Aidan O’Brien select horses that they know prefer the hard firm turf of our country. Some of these runners did not get the chance to show their best stuff on the frequently soft going in Europe and that is why they come to seek the big purses in the Breeders’ Cup.